Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year.</li>
<li>The most negative news came on 12-July when Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Mr. Ahunai together with his deputy CEO and his business partner of committing fraud during 2013-2015.</li>
<li>Our liquidity analysis of EA’s latest financial statements ending in March tells us EA does not necessarily have to resort to bankruptcy.</li>
</ul>


Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA)’s negative headlines have gradually emerged since the beginning of the year.
The most negative news came on 12-July when Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Mr. Ahunai together with his deputy CEO and his business partner of committing fraud during 2013-2015.
Our liquidity analysis of EA’s latest financial statements ending in March tells us EA does not necessarily have to resort to bankruptcy.


Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units.</li><li>Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production forecast to 1.60mn units, down 13% YoY.</li><li>We view that sector share prices have largely priced in this negative factor, while auto production may have bottomed out in 2Q24. </li></ul>

Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units.Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production forecast to 1.60mn units, down 13% YoY.We view that sector share prices have largely priced in this negative factor, while auto production may have bottomed out in 2Q24. 

Automotive - 2024E Auto Production Forecast Cut to 1.60mn Units

<ul><li>Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.</li><li>This will act as a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts makers.</li><li>The sluggish near-term outlook has caused the auto sector to underperform the market YTD, resulting in limited downside risks in terms of the tactical view.</li></ul>

Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.This will act as a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts makers.The sluggish near-term outlook has caused the auto sector to underperform the market YTD, resulting in limited downside risks in terms of the tactical view.

Automotive - Auto Production Fell 18% YoY in 1Q24

<ul><li>Thai auto production continued to weaken in February 2024, with 2M24 auto output contracting by 15.9% YoY.</li><li>This implies a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts manufacturers.</li><li>We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand. </li></ul>

Thai auto production continued to weaken in February 2024, with 2M24 auto output contracting by 15.9% YoY.This implies a negative catalyst for the 1Q24E earnings outlooks of auto parts manufacturers.We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand. 

Automotive. - Auto Output Remained Weak in February 2024

<ul><li>The domestic auto market has sustained its decline, primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the pickup truck segment owing to stringent lending procedures at financial institutions.</li><li>Consequently, auto production in January 2024 witnessed a YoY decrease of 12.5%. We anticipate that as economic conditions recover, particularly with the acceleration of government expenditures, domestic demand will gradually rebound.</li><li>However, we maintain our Neutral rating on the auto sector as the earnings growth prospects have remained moderate. </li></ul>

The domestic auto market has sustained its decline, primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the pickup truck segment owing to stringent lending procedures at financial institutions.Consequently, auto production in January 2024 witnessed a YoY decrease of 12.5%. We anticipate that as economic conditions recover, particularly with the acceleration of government expenditures, domestic demand will gradually rebound.However, we maintain our Neutral rating on the auto sector as the earnings growth prospects have remained moderate. 

Thailand

Nex Point Public Company Limited produces a wide range of high precision mechanical components for a diverse range of high-tech products. The Company produces parts for devices that include computer hard disk drives, printer, motors, plus high-end audio/video equipment, automotive products, and medical equipment for customers in both the domestic and overseas markets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nex Point (NEX TB)

Energy Absolute: Absolutely Negative Energy

Our liquidity analysis tells us EA does not have to resort to bankruptcy. Without a reliable bid-offer, we cannot assign our recommendation though...

Bondcritic

Automotive - 2024E Auto Production Forecast Cut to 1.60mn Units

Weak domestic demand pressured 1H24 auto production downward by 17% YoY to 760k units. Accordingly, we have reduced our 2024E auto production...

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive - Auto Production Fell 18% YoY in 1Q24

Auto production in March 2024 continued to slow down YoY for the eighth consecutive month, dragging overall production in 1Q24 down by 18% YoY.

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive. - Auto Output Remained Weak in February 2024

We have revised down our 2024E auto output target by 2.0% to 1.85mn units (+0.7% YoY) to reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand.

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive - A Weak Start in 2024

We choose AH (Buy; FV at Bt43.2) as our top pick because the firm will potentially benefit further from the transition to electric vehicle (EV)...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)