Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The share price has increased by around 20% since mid-last year.</li>
<li>A new revenue stream from the booking fee through the Zig app and calls that, albeit small, it was never possible to share upside with cabbies before. </li>
<li>Extension from 15 days to 30 days visa-free for Chinese tourists to come to Singapore on early 2024. </li>
</ul>


The share price has increased by around 20% since mid-last year.
A new revenue stream from the booking fee through the Zig app and calls that, albeit small, it was never possible to share upside with cabbies before. 
Extension from 15 days to 30 days visa-free for Chinese tourists to come to Singapore on early 2024. 


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices </li>
<li>However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans </li>
<li>Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  </li>
</ul>



InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices 
However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans 
Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  


Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fedex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14577:1" rel="noopener">FedEx Corp (FDX US)</a> (FedEx) will release its 2QFY24 results on 19 Dec after market close. Closely watched as it is the bellwether for global trade and commerce  </li>
<li>Cost reduction initiatives has delivered, and resurgence in e-commerce activities across Asia Pacific could potentially provide positive earnings surprise    </li>
<li>Target price US$299 (7% UPSIDE) based on 15x CY2024 PE (FedEx's historical mean). Our recommendation is to give FedEx a miss, too little upside for the risk </li>
</ul>



FedEx Corp (FDX US) (FedEx) will release its 2QFY24 results on 19 Dec after market close. Closely watched as it is the bellwether for global trade and commerce  
Cost reduction initiatives has delivered, and resurgence in e-commerce activities across Asia Pacific could potentially provide positive earnings surprise    
Target price US$299 (7% UPSIDE) based on 15x CY2024 PE (FedEx's historical mean). Our recommendation is to give FedEx a miss, too little upside for the risk 


FedEx (FDX US, BUY, TP:$299): 2QFY24 Will Shed Light on E-Commerce Resurgence

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

Singapore

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

Price Gauge
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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back

Comfortdelgro enjoys new revenue stream that allows upside participation in the number of rides, and longer visa-free stay for Chinese tourists in...

Henry Soediarko

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...

Mohshin Aziz

FedEx (FDX US, BUY, TP:$299): 2QFY24 Will Shed Light on E-Commerce Resurgence

FedEx's 2QFY24 results will be released on Dec 19. The company's cost reduction efforts have been successful, and a boost in e-commerce in Asia...

Mohshin Aziz

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back

Comfortdelgro enjoys new revenue stream that allows upside participation in the number of rides, and longer visa-free stay for Chinese tourists in...

Henry Soediarko

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

​Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...

Mohshin Aziz

FedEx (FDX US, BUY, TP:$299): 2QFY24 Will Shed Light on E-Commerce Resurgence

​FedEx's 2QFY24 results will be released on Dec 19. The company's cost reduction efforts have been successful, and a boost in e-commerce in Asia...

Mohshin Aziz

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...

FedEx's 2QFY24 results will be released on Dec 19. The company's cost reduction efforts have been successful, and a boost in e-commerce in Asia...