Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Two months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> announced a Rights Offering to raise S$1.5bn to recapitalise operations and provide working capital for the 16 projects currently under execution, some of which have been hit by delays where payment was expected sooner and it will instead come later. 
The Rights Offering, coming on top of another Rights Offering and distribution of shares a year ago as the company was <s>cast away by</s> separated from its erstwhile parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1087:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)</a> seemed to upset shareholders who did not understand why a second large offering in a year was needed. The simple answer was that last year, the net capital raise was minimal. It was primarily designed to generate proceeds to be able to pay back a large loan extended by its parent before the split. This year it is about survival.  
As I noted then, it was important to read the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Trading%20and%20Liquidity%20Update.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=672231" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trading and Liquidity Update</a>. The big points are:
<div>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<li>Workers are scarce. Costs are up. There are supply constraints because of covid-19. Foreign workers who left can't come back. Relative Singapore success in fighting covid early on raised labor costs locally. It is tough to get new workers and new covid-19 measures introduced in May 2021 won't make it easier. </li>
<li>Projects are delayed. Cash Flows are delayed. In particular, the delivery of two drillships to Transocean has been deferred from FY21/22 to FY2023 and later, delaying S$610mm in cash flow.</li>
<li>The company needs to optimize cost structure</li>
<li>Group turnover this year has been lower than expected. </li>
<li>The group needs to raise money to get comfort on ability to complete existing contract base.</li>
<li>The company is pivoting to renewables and clean energy solutions.</li>
</ol>
The company needs money for all this. And a Rights Issue would provide certainty and immediacy.
The Securities Investors Association (Singapore), which has the general reputation of standing up to companies which do deals where retail investors are inconvenienced, came out with a press release with questions on <a href="https://sias.org.sg/latest-updates/press-statement-questions-to-sembcorp-marine-on-its-latest-proposed-rights-issue/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15 July</a> which SMM answered on <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=675213" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19 July</a>.  The company got its Approval in Principle in early August from the SGX. SIAS sponsored a virtual dialogue on <a href="https://sias.org.sg/latest-updates/transcript-of-sias-sembcorp-marine-virtual-dialogue-6-august-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6 August</a>. There was an update on the <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/JWHV82WCY953USMS/7bf07888e4783b9b297db68ce0cfac6a63afa1e381c0f244820b7f7d26feba8f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">18th of August</a> from the company, a further very late-in-the-day Q&amp;A published on <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Response%20to%20additional%20questions%20from%20shareholders.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=680896" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23 August</a> in the morning before the EGM, the EGM was held yesterday, the Rights Offering was approved, and...
...Today after the close, we have an announcement of the Rights Trading Period (31 Aug - 8 Sep), the Exercise Period (31 Aug - 14 Sep) and Pay Date (22 Sep) along with a re-delivery of all the documents from late June and early August (<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Launch%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=681089" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Announcement</a>, <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Media%20Release.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=681090" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Media Release</a>, <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Presentation.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=681091" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Presentation</a>, and <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Trading%20and%20Liquidity%20Update.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=681092" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trading and Liquidity Update</a>).
24 August was the last day to trade WITH rights. 25 August is the first day to trade ex-rights.
There is strategy involved. 
Much more below the fold.
</div>

Two months ago, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) announced a Rights Offering to raise S$1.5bn to recapitalise operations and provide working capital for the 16 projects currently under execution, some of which have been hit by delays where payment was expected sooner and it will instead come later. 
The Rights Offering, coming on top of another Rights Offering and distribution of shares a year ago as the company was cast away by separated from its erstwhile parent Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) seemed to upset shareholders who did not understand why a second large offering in a year was needed. The simple answer was that last year, the net capital raise was minimal. It was primarily designed to generate proceeds to be able to pay back a large loan extended by its parent before the split. This year it is about survival.  
As I noted then, it was important to read the Trading and Liquidity Update. The big points are:


Workers are scarce. Costs are up. There are supply constraints because of covid-19. Foreign workers who left can't come back. Relative Singapore success in fighting covid early on raised labor costs locally. It is tough to get new workers and new covid-19 measures introduced in May 2021 won't make it easier. 
Projects are delayed. Cash Flows are delayed. In particular, the delivery of two drillships to Transocean has been deferred from FY21/22 to FY2023 and later, delaying S$610mm in cash flow.
The company needs to optimize cost structure
Group turnover this year has been lower than expected. 
The group needs to raise money to get comfort on ability to complete existing contract base.
The company is pivoting to renewables and clean energy solutions.

The company needs money for all this. And a Rights Issue would provide certainty and immediacy.
The Securities Investors Association (Singapore), which has the general reputation of standing up to companies which do deals where retail investors are inconvenienced, came out with a press release with questions on 15 July which SMM answered on 19 July.  The company got its Approval in Principle in early August from the SGX. SIAS sponsored a virtual dialogue on 6 August. There was an update on the 18th of August from the company, a further very late-in-the-day Q&amp;A published on 23 August in the morning before the EGM, the EGM was held yesterday, the Rights Offering was approved, and...
...Today after the close, we have an announcement of the Rights Trading Period (31 Aug - 8 Sep), the Exercise Period (31 Aug - 14 Sep) and Pay Date (22 Sep) along with a re-delivery of all the documents from late June and early August (Announcement, Media Release, Presentation, and Trading and Liquidity Update).
24 August was the last day to trade WITH rights. 25 August is the first day to trade ex-rights.
There is strategy involved. 
Much more below the fold.


Sembcorp Marine Goes Ex-Rights - Strategy From Here

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  </li>
<li>Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  </li>
<li>Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


Operations are on track with earlier guidance given during FY23 results, loads and yields are healthy, with UK and North American performing better than expected  
Will buyback and cancel remaining 97.7m preference shares for a sum of HKD10b by end of July 2024. Shareholder dilution has been avoided  
Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+24% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) 


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  </li>
</ul>


With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks in the five trading sessions up to Jun 13, with S$3.6 million of net institutional outflow, as 23 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$88.8 million.</li><li>Stamford Land Corp executive chairman Ow Chio Kiat increased his total interest from 45.86 to 45.88 per cent, acquiring 246,800 shares at S$0.40 a share between Jun 6 and 11.</li></ul>

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks in the five trading sessions up to Jun 13, with S$3.6 million of net institutional outflow, as 23 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$88.8 million.Stamford Land Corp executive chairman Ow Chio Kiat increased his total interest from 45.86 to 45.88 per cent, acquiring 246,800 shares at S$0.40 a share between Jun 6 and 11.

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes

Mapletree Logistics Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million in 2Q24.</li><li>While the 2Q24 net inflow looks to have slowed considerably, S$597 million of net retail outflow in the trio of Banks has offset S$646 million of net retail inflow to other Singapore stocks.</li><li>As noted above, coinciding with price gains, UOB booked the most net selling by retail investors in the 2Q24 (to 13 June) at S$366 million, which followed S$10 million of net retail buying in 1Q24.</li></ul>

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million in 2Q24.While the 2Q24 net inflow looks to have slowed considerably, S$597 million of net retail outflow in the trio of Banks has offset S$646 million of net retail inflow to other Singapore stocks.As noted above, coinciding with price gains, UOB booked the most net selling by retail investors in the 2Q24 (to 13 June) at S$366 million, which followed S$10 million of net retail buying in 1Q24.

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

Singapore

SATS Limited provides integrated ground handling and in-flight catering services at Singapore Changi Airport.  The Company also provides aviation security, airline laundry, and airport cargo delivery management services.

ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited provides bus, taxi, car leasing and rental, automotive engineering, maintenance services, and diesel sales.  The Group also provides investment trading and operates vehicle inspection and assessment services, and advertising services.

SIA Engineering Co Ltd provides airframe and component overhaul services, line maintenance and technical ground handling services. The Company also manufactures aircraft cabin equipment, refurbishes aircraft galleys, repairs and overhauls hydromechanical aircraft equipment.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is a port investor, developer and operator. The Company is also involved in transportation related services and logistics operations, including container storage and repair, container tracking, general and bulk cargo tranfer, warehousing, marine shuttle services and other related services.

Singapore Post Limited is the national postal service provider in Singapore. The Company provides domestic and international postal and courier services including end-to-end integrated mail solutions covering data printing, letter-shopping, delivery and mailroom management, and others. Singapore Post also offers end-to-end e-commerce logistics solutions.

SBS Transit Limited provides public bus services, advertisement on its bus fleet, and bus chartering.

Samudera Shipping Line Limited owns and operates ocean-going ships and provides containerized feeder shipping services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also owns and charters vessels, provides sea and air freight forwarding, and operates shipping agency and container freight station services.

Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.

ST Engineering is a global technology, defence and engineering group with offices across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the U.S., serving customers in more than 100 countries. The Group uses technology and innovation to solve real-world problems and improve lives through its diverse portfolio of businesses across the aerospace, smart city, defence and public security segments. Headquartered in Singapore, ST Engineering reported revenue of $7.9b in FY2019 and it ranks among the largest companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. It is a component stock of the FTSE Straits Times Index, MSCI Singapore, iEdge SG ESG Transparency Index and iEdge SG ESG Leaders Index.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides commercial airline services throughout China, Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.  The Company also provides other airline related services including aircraft maintenance and air catering.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

United Airlines Holdings Inc is an airline holding company.  The Company owns and operates airlines that transports persons, property and mail throughout the United States and abroad.

Southwest Airlines Co. is a domestic airline that provides primarily short-haul, high-frequency, point-to-point service.  The Company offers flights throughout the United States.

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. provides transportation services. The Company offers international and domestic air passenger and cargo transportation services. International Consolidated Airlines Group serves customers worldwide.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is an airline that provides both domestic and international flight services.  The Company provides passenger and cargo services to destinations in Chile, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, and the Pacific.  LATAM Airlines operates passenger aircraft and cargo freighters.

InterGlobe Aviation Limited provides passenger airlines services. The Company offers ground management, air transportation, terminal maintenance, and other services. InterGlobe Aviation conducts its business globally.

Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THY), also known as Turkish Airlines, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The Company serves all domestic destinations as well as the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia, North Africa and South Africa.

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Sembcorp Marine Goes Ex-Rights - Strategy From Here

Sembcorp Marine goes ex-rights on 25 August. The rights start trading on 31 August. There could be trades to do here for long-only investors, but...

Travis Lundy

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

Cathay Pacific's operations are exceeding expectations, plans to buyback preference shares and is considered a value buy with a target price of...

Mohshin Aziz

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks in the five trading sessions up to Jun 13,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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Sembcorp Marine Goes Ex-Rights - Strategy From Here

Sembcorp Marine goes ex-rights on 25 August. The rights start trading on 31 August. There could be trades to do here for long-only investors, but...

Travis Lundy

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:HKD):

​Cathay Pacific's operations are exceeding expectations, plans to buyback preference shares and is considered a value buy with a target price of...

Mohshin Aziz

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

​As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes

Kuok Khoon Hong and George Yeo boost Wilmar stakes Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks in the five trading sessions up to Jun 13,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Recent Net Retail Flow in Singapore Stocks

Singapore stocks have booked net retail inflow of S$1.01 billion in the 2024 year to 13 June, comprised of S$959 million in 1Q24 and S$50 million...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Cathay Pacific's operations are exceeding expectations, plans to buyback preference shares and is considered a value buy with a target price of...

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...