Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FDIC’s decision to put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/svb-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6017:1" rel="noopener">Svb Financial (SIVB US) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/signature-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3489:1" rel="noopener">Signature Bank (SBNY US)</a> under receivership created the worldwide market panic.</li>
<li>We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.</li>
<li>The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.</li>
</ul>


FDIC’s decision to put Svb Financial (SIVB US) and Signature Bank (SBNY US) under receivership created the worldwide market panic.
We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.
The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.


Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. </li>
<li>SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. </li>
<li>Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.</li>
</ul>


On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. 
Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.


Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

<ul>
<li>SI US declined 78.5% from its August 2022 high of 108.11 to its November 2022 low of 23.20. </li>
<li>Our Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodology has triggered a TSS &lt; 10, highlighting extreme short-term momentum failure.</li>
<li>A new downtrend low, below 23.20, in the coming 1-2 days will likely fail quickly and deliver a 10% to 20% reversal in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


SI US declined 78.5% from its August 2022 high of 108.11 to its November 2022 low of 23.20. 
Our Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodology has triggered a TSS &lt; 10, highlighting extreme short-term momentum failure.
A new downtrend low, below 23.20, in the coming 1-2 days will likely fail quickly and deliver a 10% to 20% reversal in the coming 1-2 weeks.


United States

Silvergate Capital Corporation operates as a bank holding company. The Company, through its subsidiary Silvergate Bank provides a banking platform for innovators, especially in the digital currency industry, and developing product and service solutions addressing the needs of entrepreneurs.

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Silvergate Capital (SI US)

Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

We believe the SVB-SBNY contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.

Bondcritic

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

Our proprietary Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodolody has proven to be highly effective in identifying when exhausted trends are at the...

David Coloretti, CMT

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US)

Our proprietary Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodology is proven to identify extreme short-term momentum failures and anticipate high...

David Coloretti, CMT

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