Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>‘We lower the weight of equities. With markets pricing several Fed rate cuts, valuation rising, and earnings expectations too upbeat, catalysts for further increases are vanishing. </li>
<li>After the significant decline in March building permits, the implied recession odds linked to this indicator are rising again.</li>
<li>There's a classic example of reverse operating leverage going on: earnings growth is negative, while sales growth is positive. Most of the time, this is followed by a recession.</li>
</ul>


‘We lower the weight of equities. With markets pricing several Fed rate cuts, valuation rising, and earnings expectations too upbeat, catalysts for further increases are vanishing. 
After the significant decline in March building permits, the implied recession odds linked to this indicator are rising again.
There's a classic example of reverse operating leverage going on: earnings growth is negative, while sales growth is positive. Most of the time, this is followed by a recession.


Weekly Market Monitor (16) - The Odds of a Recession Is Rising; Earnings Just Don’t Know It Yet

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.</li><li>That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.</li><li>Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.</li></ul>

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

<ul><li>This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.</li><li>Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March</li><li>Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.</li></ul>

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of MarchAnother interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

<ul><li>President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.</li><li>Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.</li><li>Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.</li></ul>

President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Silver prices recently plunged 14%, driven by US tariffs, concerns over global trade slowdowns, and reduced industrial demand, overshadowing long-term fundamentals like strong green tech demand.</li>
<li>The price drop reflects heightened economic uncertainty, triggered by geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and weak demand forecasts, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver, particularly affecting industrial applications.</li>
<li>Despite short-term volatility, silver’s industrial demand remains robust, and long-term supply shortages persist. Tariffs and global trade concerns will continue influencing price fluctuations in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Silver prices recently plunged 14%, driven by US tariffs, concerns over global trade slowdowns, and reduced industrial demand, overshadowing long-term fundamentals like strong green tech demand.
The price drop reflects heightened economic uncertainty, triggered by geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and weak demand forecasts, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver, particularly affecting industrial applications.
Despite short-term volatility, silver’s industrial demand remains robust, and long-term supply shortages persist. Tariffs and global trade concerns will continue influencing price fluctuations in the near term.


United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

Weekly Market Monitor (16) - The Odds of a Recession Is Rising; Earnings Just Don’t Know It Yet

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s...

The Commodity Report

Why Silver Is Falling?

Silver prices plummeted 14% due to US tariffs and trade concerns, overshadowing strong green tech demand and long-term supply shortages.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly Market Monitor (16) - The Odds of a Recession Is Rising; Earnings Just Don’t Know It Yet

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s...

The Commodity Report

Why Silver Is Falling?

​Silver prices plummeted 14% due to US tariffs and trade concerns, overshadowing strong green tech demand and long-term supply shortages.

Nimish Maheshwari

Silver prices plummeted 14% due to US tariffs and trade concerns, overshadowing strong green tech demand and long-term supply shortages.