Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Taiwan

Faraday Technology Corp. designs and manufactures application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and wafers.

Radiant Opto-Electronics Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets optoelectronics products. The Company's main products are liquid crystal display (LCD) backlight units, and backlight processed components and sub-assemblies.

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

MPI Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets probe cards and probe stations for wafer testing.

XinTec Inc. provides advanced integrated circuit packages and integrated circuit packaging and testing services for the semiconductor industry. The Company's product applications include image sensors, optical sensors,. power management IC, power discrete, analog IC and integrated power devices.

Formosa Sumco Technology Corporation specializes in testing and manufacture of Silicon chip materials.

Win Semiconductors Corp. was founded in 1999. The Company's line of business includes the manufacturing of semiconductors and related solid-state devices.

Via Technologies Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated chipsets for PC (Personal Computer) motherboards.  The Company's products include core logic and peripheral controller chips.

Himax Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures integrated circuits.  The Company produces liquid crystal displays (LCD).

Kinsus Interconnect Technology Corp. manufactures BGA (Ball Grid Array) boards. The Company's products include PBGA (Plastic BGA), MCM (Multi Chip Module) BGA, Mini BGA, TEBGA (Thermal Enhanced BGA), and flip chip substrate boards.

Ambarella, Inc. manufactures high definition video compression and image processing semiconductors. The Company products are used in digital still cameras, camcorders, and video-enabled mobile phones.

EO Technics Co., Ltd. is a laser-based equipment supplier. The Company develops laser technology and applications used for marking, drilling, trimming and cutting.

Parade Technologies Ltd is a fabless semiconductor company that specialzies in high-speed video interfacing and processing products used in personal computer and consumer electronics applications, such as digital TVs, DVDs, monitors and display panels, and set-top boxes.

Veeco Instruments Inc. manufactures enabling solutions for customers in the HB-LED, solar, data storage, semiconductor, scientific research and industrial markets. The Company has technology positions in three businesses: LED & Solar Process Equipment, Data Storage Process Equipment, and Metrology Instruments.

Semtech Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, including integrated circuits, discrete circuits, and assembly products. The Company's devices are used in computer, communications, industrial, military-aerospace, and automotive applications.

RORZE CORPORATION manufactures printed circuit board conveyers and wafer handlers for semiconductor manufacturing.  The Company also produces sorters and vacuum chamber robots, as well as controllers and stepping motor drivers used in various automation systems.  Rorze provides parts replacement and repair services for its products.

Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells discrete device chips, power diodes, rectifier bridges and other semiconductor discrete products. The Company produces products including diodes, rectifier bridges, and GPP chips.

Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology (300373 CH)

TOKYO SEIMITSU CO., LTD. manufactures and sells semiconductor manufacturing equipment and measuring instruments.  The Company produces wafer probing machines, wafer dicing machines, electron beam lithography systems, wafer inspection systems, and chemical mechanical planarizers (CMP) systems.

China Wafer Level CSP Company Limited provides Wafer level chip size package and testing services.  The Company's main products include image sensor chip, the ambient light sensor chip, medical and electronic devices, micro-electromechanical system (MEMS), radio frequency identification chip (RFID).

Vitrox Corporation Bhd, through its subsidiary, develops and produces automated vision inspection systems.  The Company provides machine vision solutions for semiconductor integrated circuit inspection.

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation is a semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets semiconductor products for the multimedia consumer electronics market. The Company's products include controllers used in mobile storage media and multimedia systems on a chip.

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Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US)

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

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