Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities provides clients with investment services covering diversified financial products. We have outstanding business performance amid intense competition in the domestic securities market. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Better-than-expected GM; recommend TRADING BUY . Silergy’s 3Q21 GM beat our forecast. Given tight foundry capacity and product/client mix improvement, Silergy’s GM is expected to stay at the high level in FY22. Additionally, Silergy guides a growth of 20~30% in FY22 revenue.. Silergy’s stock price hit our prior TP, partially pricing in catalysts. Recommend TRADING BUY with TP of NTD5700 (70x FY22 PER). </p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Better-than-expected GM; recommend TRADING BUY . Silergy’s 3Q21 GM beat our forecast. Given tight foundry capacity and product/client mix improvement, Silergy’s GM is expected to stay at the high level in FY22. Additionally, Silergy guides a growth of 20~30% in FY22 revenue.. Silergy’s stock price hit our prior TP, partially pricing in catalysts. Recommend TRADING BUY with TP of NTD5700 (70x FY22 PER). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Silergy-KY (6415 TT, TRADING BUY, NTD5,150) 

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<p>While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.</p>

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weimob-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27394:1" rel="noopener">Weimob Inc. (2013 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:379:1" rel="noopener">SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:209:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Steel Ltd (5406 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Consumer Staples sectors while decreasing in the Health Care and Information Technology sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5279:1" rel="noopener">Pan Ocean (028670 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-heavy-industries-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-retail-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3867:1" rel="noopener">GS Retail (007070 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitronix-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5684:1" rel="noopener">Sitronix Technology (8016 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silergy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13998:1" rel="noopener">Silergy Corp (6415 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chunghwa-telecom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9181:1" rel="noopener">Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent (700 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Weimob Inc. (2013 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) and WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Health Care sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Shimano Inc (7309 JP), Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP), Cocokara Fine (3098 JP), Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and Casio Computer (6952 JP) while there was short covering on Pharma Foods International (2929 JP), SUMCO Corp (3436 JP), BASE Inc (4477 JP), Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP) and Kobe Steel Ltd (5406 JP). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Consumer Staples sectors while decreasing in the Health Care and Information Technology sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and Pan Ocean (028670 KS) while shorts were covered on Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS), Doosan Infracore (042670 KS), GS Retail (007070 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) and Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) and Sitronix Technology (8016 TT) while shorts covered on Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Silergy Corp (6415 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and Chunghwa Telecom (2412 TT).

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CMB, Ping An, Weimob, WuXi, Shimano, Cocokara, HMM, Kakao, Doosan, Yang Ming

China

Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd is a PV glass manufacturer. The Company also markets float glass, household glass and architectural glass.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

TongFu Microelectronics Co., Ltd. manufactures integrated chips. The Company provides assembling and testing service for memory, microprocessor, micro-controller, hybrid circuit, analog circuit, and other related services throughout China.

Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co., Ltd develops, researches, tests, and sells integrated circuits.

Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co., Ltd (600460 CH)

Ingenic Semiconductor Company Limited develops and sells  32-bit embedded central processing unit and supporting software platforms. The Company's main product is central processing units.

Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells crystalline silicon growth devices and its control systems. The Company's main products include fully automatic monocrystalline silicon growth furnaces, polysilicon ingot furnaces, monocrystalline silicon growth furnace control systems.

Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electr (300316 CH)

Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.,Ltd. specializes in IC testing and packaging for the semiconductor ICs, devices and components.

Tianshui Huatian Technology Co, Ltd. (002185 CH)

Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures semiconductor components. The Company develops, produces, and distributes fingerprint identification chips, capacitive touch controller chips, and more. Shenzhen Goodix Technology also provides technology training and hardware testing services worldwide.

Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co., Ltd. designs and manufactures electronic components.  The Company manufactures components for graphics processing, displays, IC products, and more.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

Diodes Incorporated manufactures and supplies discrete, logic, and analog semiconductor devices to consumers in the electronics, computing, industrial, communications, and automotive markets. The Company's products include diodes, transistors, MOSFETs, single gate logic, LED drivers, and USB switches.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Silergy Corp designs and manufactures a broad range of high performance analog integrated circuits.  The Company's products include single output step down regulators, dual output regulators, single output step by step regulators, power management ICs, step up LED backlight regulator, AC-DC LED lighting controller, DC input LED lighting drivers, LDO regulators, and protection switch

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Silergy Corp (6415 TT)

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

Silergy-KY (6415 TT, TRADING BUY, NTD5,150)

Better-than-expected GM; recommend TRADING BUY . Silergy’s 3Q21 GM beat our forecast. Given tight foundry capacity and product/client mix...

Capital Securities

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CMB, Ping An, Weimob, WuXi, Shimano, Cocokara, HMM, Kakao, Doosan, Yang Ming

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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