Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. </li>
<li>Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. </li>
<li>Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. </li>
</ul>


The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. 
Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. 
Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. 


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Schneider Electric Infrastructure / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interacted with channels associated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skf-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4984:1" rel="noopener">SKF India Ltd (SKF IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6434:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schneider-electric-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16778:1" rel="noopener">Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  </li>
<li>SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.</li>
</ul>


We interacted with channels associated with SKF India Ltd (SKF IN) , Schaeffler India (SCHFL IN) &amp; Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN).
Sector tailwinds, market share gain ability and changing consumer preferences are all working in place for growth ahead.  
SCHFL stands out in terms of growth and margins, SCHN's channel feedback and recent performance in encouraging.


India Channel Insight #48 | SKF, Schaeffler, Schneider

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>We expect 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive trading will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biocon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:398:1" rel="noopener">Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


We expect 5 changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.
The largest impact of passive trading will be on Page Industries (PAG IN), Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN), Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) and ABB India Ltd (ABB IN). 
There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

India

Apar Industries Ltd. manufactures aluminum conductors for power transmission. The Company also manufactures polymers, synthetic rubbers, latexes, transformer oils, pharmaceutical oils and other specialty oils.

Nava Bharat Ventures Limited manufactures ferro alloys which are utilized by the steel industry. The Company also generates & distributes power and manufactures sugar.

Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd. operates in a diverse range of business areas as a manufacturer and service provider.  The Company produces industrial packaging products, greases and lubricants, performance chemicals and marine freight containers.  Services include tea exporting and trading, project engineering and consultancy and travel, tours and cargo.

Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd., through subsidiaries, manufactures lubricating greases and lube barrels, exports tea, and operates travel and shipping businesses.

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. is an industrial conglomerate.  The Company's lines of business include engineering and construction, cement, power, hospitality, real estate, and expressways and highways.

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited manufactures power plant equipment. The Company's products include gas turbines, generators, thermal sets, diesel shunters, turbo sets, hydro sets, power transformers, switch gears, circuit breakers and boilers. The Company also manufactures compressors, valves, rectifiers, pumps, capacitors, oil rigs, as well as castings and forgings.

CG Power and Industrial Solutions Limited manufactures, distributes, installs and services electrical and allied equipment. The Company offers transformers, reactors, switchgear control equipment and accessories, industrial motors, pumps, and communication systems. CG Power and Industrial Solutions serves customers globally. 

Bharat Electronics Ltd. manufactures electronic communication equipment, night vision equipment such as image converter tubes, night vision binoculars, and goggles, periscopes, gunsights and tank electronics.  The Company's electronic communication products include HF/VHF transmitters, receivers, microwave radio relays, radars and other electronic components required by defense services.

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited holds all of the non-property businesses of the Cheung Kong Group and the Hutchison Group, including ports and related services, telecommunications, retail, infrastructure, energy, and movable assets leasing operations.

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

SM Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company operates retail business and develops shopping mall and other real estate property.  The Company also provides tourism services.

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

Koninklijke Philips NV is a health technology company focused on improving people's health across the health continuum from healthy living and prevention, to diagnosis, treatment, and home care. The Company offers products and services in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring and health informatics, as well as in consumer health and home care.

Rheinmetall AG is an automotive, electronics, defense, and engineering group. The Company produces automotive pumps and components to supply air, reduce emissions, and supply fuel, pistons for gasoline and diesel vehicle and stationary engines, bearings for engines and other applications and aluminum engine blocks, and offers aftermarket service to engine repair shops.

Lifco AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides dental products, machinery and tools, sawmill equipment, contract manufacturing, vehicle interiors, and environmental technology. Lifco offers its products through a network of subsidiaries and partnerships worldwide.

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

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Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

A new Bloomberg article tells me JIP/Banks negotiations are extended 3 more days to breach what seems an impossible impasse. This just doesn't seem...

Travis Lundy

India Channel Insight #48 | SKF, Schaeffler, Schneider

This channel insight outlines our interactions with distributors of SKF India Ltd, Schaeffler India and Schneider Electric Infrastructure.

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

There should be 5 changes to the NIFTY100 in March. Quite a few names overlap with the potential AMFI reclassification of stocks which will result...

Brian Freitas

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

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