Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 25 January, the EGM of Siemens Gamesa approved the delisting of the shares, which the company requested to the CNMV.</li>
<li>The standing purchase order for the shares, at €18.05/share (same as the offer price, sellers will bear the brokerage, trading and settlement fees) will last until 7 February.</li>
<li>Gross spread is nil. Shortly after 7 February, Siemens Gamesa will be an unlisted illiquid share. Recommendation is sell into the sustained purchase order.</li>
</ul>


On 25 January, the EGM of Siemens Gamesa approved the delisting of the shares, which the company requested to the CNMV.
The standing purchase order for the shares, at €18.05/share (same as the offer price, sellers will bear the brokerage, trading and settlement fees) will last until 7 February.
Gross spread is nil. Shortly after 7 February, Siemens Gamesa will be an unlisted illiquid share. Recommendation is sell into the sustained purchase order.


Siemens/Siemens Gamesa: Running for the Exit

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

<ul>
<li>After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below the 96.71% squeeze-out threshold condition).</li>
<li>Siemens Energy will execute plan B: a standing purchase order beginning 23 December followed by an EGM that will approve delisting.</li>
<li>Unicaja Banco SA (UNI SM) will replace Siemens Gamesa in the Ibex 35 index. Talgo (TLGO SM) will replace Unicaja in the Ibex Medium Cap.</li>
</ul>


After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below the 96.71% squeeze-out threshold condition).
Siemens Energy will execute plan B: a standing purchase order beginning 23 December followed by an EGM that will approve delisting.
Unicaja Banco SA (UNI SM) will replace Siemens Gamesa in the Ibex 35 index. Talgo (TLGO SM) will replace Unicaja in the Ibex Medium Cap.


Germany

Siemens Energy AG operates as a renewable energy company. The Company offers power generation and transmission, technical consultancy, and operation and maintenance services. Siemens Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Siemens/Siemens Gamesa: Running for the Exit

On 25 January, the EGM of Siemens Gamesa approved the delisting of the company, with over 98% of the votes casted (over the 75% threshold of the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Siemens Energy/Siemens Gamesa: Delisting

After the end of the offer period, Siemens Energy will hold 631,538,509 shares of Siemens Gamesa, representing 92.72% of the share capital (below...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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