Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We are very cautious about Thai banks, because they are effectively the mirror image of a slow economy. Though the economy has picked up and NPLs appear to have bottomed out, bank earnings are still one of the weakest amongst all sectors. Couple that with the high valuations due to foreign inflows, rising cost and lower income from PromptPay mandated by the government, and the looming threat of deposit guarantee removal over the next six years, the outlook for the sector is as bad as it gets.Within this worrisome landscape, we like (or hate least) SCB, the most valuable bank, in the near term as it plays laggard to market darling KBANK. BAY will also have tailwind thanks to Mitsubishi-UFJ's influential patronage. The large bank best insulated from deposit guarantee removal is BBL due to its ultra-conservative management. While we admit TISCO looks really tempting, we would avoid all of the smaller banks, as we feel that this is the wrong time to take risk with second-tier franchises, given the slow pace of economic improvement.

We are very cautious about Thai banks, because they are effectively the mirror image of a slow economy. Though the economy has picked up and NPLs appear to have bottomed out, bank earnings are still one of the weakest amongst all sectors. Couple that with the high valuations due to foreign inflows, rising cost and lower income from PromptPay mandated by the government, and the looming threat of deposit guarantee removal over the next six years, the outlook for the sector is as bad as it gets.Within this worrisome landscape, we like (or hate least) SCB, the most valuable bank, in the near term as it plays laggard to market darling KBANK. BAY will also have tailwind thanks to Mitsubishi-UFJ's influential patronage. The large bank best insulated from deposit guarantee removal is BBL due to its ultra-conservative management. While we admit TISCO looks really tempting, we would avoid all of the smaller banks, as we feel that this is the wrong time to take risk with second-tier franchises, given the slow pace of economic improvement.

Sathorn Series 2: Banks Under Storm (PromptPay & Deposit Guarantee Removal)

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

<ul><li>Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL).</li><li>These categories are substandard, doubtful and loss.</li><li>The first category of loans is called pass, while the second is called special mention.</li><li>It is this latter category that is of interest to us here. These loans are late, but not impaired. They are not timely with payment, but not NPL.</li><li>These loans therefore have a high propensity to roll or migrate into the NPL loan category.</li><li>This is important as for some banks these loans are high compared with total NPLs. For some banks these loans are 2x or 3x higher than NPLs!</li><li>Also NPLs require far higher provisions than pass or special mention loans, and increasingly so, as they deteriorate from one category to another.</li></ul>Full report below the fold....

Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL).These categories are substandard, doubtful and loss.The first category of loans is called pass, while the second is called special mention.It is this latter category that is of interest to us here. These loans are late, but not impaired. They are not timely with payment, but not NPL.These loans therefore have a high propensity to roll or migrate into the NPL loan category.This is important as for some banks these loans are high compared with total NPLs. For some banks these loans are 2x or 3x higher than NPLs!Also NPLs require far higher provisions than pass or special mention loans, and increasingly so, as they deteriorate from one category to another.Full report below the fold....

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

Sathorn Series 2: Banks Under Storm (PromptPay & Deposit Guarantee Removal)

We are very cautious about Thai banks, because they are effectively the mirror image of a slow economy. Though the economy has picked up and NPLs...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply...

Asia Advisors

Asian Banks – Risks Remain Plentiful

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking...

Daniel Tabbush

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

"Special Mention Loans" across Asia

Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL). These categories are substandard,...

Daniel Tabbush

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