Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided.</li><li>A buying force quickly targeted large caps, such as banking, energy, finance, transportation, food and commerce stocks.</li><li>Meanwhile, foreign investors’ turn to buying helped the index move in positive territory all day, but volume remained light.</li></ul>

Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided.A buying force quickly targeted large caps, such as banking, energy, finance, transportation, food and commerce stocks.Meanwhile, foreign investors’ turn to buying helped the index move in positive territory all day, but volume remained light.

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.</li><li>The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.</li><li>The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.</li></ul>

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

<ul><li>Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and briefly sank below 1,350 points as selling pressure targeted large cap stocks, such as energy, petrol and ICT shares.</li><li>However, the index was able to recover quickly to stay above 1,360 points, even though foreign investors kept selling.</li><li>The index initially saw a slight increase but then experienced a rapid and significant decline, indicating strong selling pressure.</li></ul>

Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and briefly sank below 1,350 points as selling pressure targeted large cap stocks, such as energy, petrol and ICT shares.However, the index was able to recover quickly to stay above 1,360 points, even though foreign investors kept selling.The index initially saw a slight increase but then experienced a rapid and significant decline, indicating strong selling pressure.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.</li>
<li>Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.</li>
<li>We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Thai equities lack growth and innovation. Big corporations continue to have unfair advantages in terms of access to bank financing and business opportunities.
Thailand is an aging society with rising income disparity and a stalling education system. Hence, we have questioned how Thailand will escape the middle income trap in the near term.
We expect more disruptions and policy blunders which could impair Thai stock performance. We do not believe Thailand can correct its cause in the near term.


Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

Technical Analysis - April 23, 2024

Asian bourses, including the SET, soared against rising US bond yields after tensions in the Middle East subsided. A buying force quickly targeted...

Krungthai XSpring

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

Technical Analysis - APRIL 19, 2024

Asian bourses rebounded on the decrease in US bond yields, but the SET only climbed up limitedly before dropping sharply in the afternoon and...

Krungthai XSpring

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand: Aging Poor

The political uncertainty in the past 2 decades has not subsided, in our judgment. We then expect more unpredictable disruptions and policy...

Bondcritic

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