Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions</li>
<li>Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors</li>
<li>A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December</li>
</ul>


December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions
Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors
A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>DBS emphasizes TSV project as a significant initiative for GVT, showcasing its strategic importance for growth and development.</li><li>CGSI forecasts robust earnings for companies like Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, indicating a positive outlook for the market.</li><li>DBS reaffirms its positive outlook on OUE REIT, citing improved operating performance as a key factor in maintaining a 'buy' rating for the company.</li></ul>

DBS emphasizes TSV project as a significant initiative for GVT, showcasing its strategic importance for growth and development.CGSI forecasts robust earnings for companies like Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, indicating a positive outlook for the market.DBS reaffirms its positive outlook on OUE REIT, citing improved operating performance as a key factor in maintaining a 'buy' rating for the company.

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>Although the Singapore government has brought back the phase 2 heightened alert requirement that prohibits dining-in just last week, the co-chair of the multi-ministry task force, Lawrence Wong, announced today that the Singapore government will review the COVID-19 restrictions in early August only for the vaccinated people. </p><p>As the restrictions are potentially going to be eased off including allowing dining-in, the coming back of the working in the office rather than from home, and the ability to travel overseas are back again, there will be an increase in the mobility rate and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> is the main beneficiary through the higher traffic in the domestic travel (through MRT and busses) and also the overseas trip through higher taxi ridership. </p>

Although the Singapore government has brought back the phase 2 heightened alert requirement that prohibits dining-in just last week, the co-chair of the multi-ministry task force, Lawrence Wong, announced today that the Singapore government will review the COVID-19 restrictions in early August only for the vaccinated people. As the restrictions are potentially going to be eased off including allowing dining-in, the coming back of the working in the office rather than from home, and the ability to travel overseas are back again, there will be an increase in the mobility rate and Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) is the main beneficiary through the higher traffic in the domestic travel (through MRT and busses) and also the overseas trip through higher taxi ridership. 

Comfort Delgro (CD): Pandemic to Endemic Beneficiary

<div>Adding Indonesia to the current 8 countries that Singapore has a reciprocal Green Lane travel arrangement with, we should expect an increase in mobility in Singapore as Indonesia contributes to the second largest number of tourists in Singapore besides China. There is also a pilot project of the travel bubble with Hong Kong that requires no 14-day quarantine. </div>
<div></div>
<div>The shift WFO from WFH is not losing any momentum but slowly increasing. Majority Singaporeans uses public transport to go to work compared to private vehicles (public transport is the largest revenue contributor to Comfort Delgro). Phase III of COVID-19 reopening creates higher mobility from the higher number of participants allowed in various events including weddings and religious services. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Let's not be fooled by the increase in the company's increase in PER, the increase was caused by the low earnings rather than an increase in share price thus for investors who have not have <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> in the portfolio, they still have a chance to do it. </div>

Adding Indonesia to the current 8 countries that Singapore has a reciprocal Green Lane travel arrangement with, we should expect an increase in mobility in Singapore as Indonesia contributes to the second largest number of tourists in Singapore besides China. There is also a pilot project of the travel bubble with Hong Kong that requires no 14-day quarantine. 

The shift WFO from WFH is not losing any momentum but slowly increasing. Majority Singaporeans uses public transport to go to work compared to private vehicles (public transport is the largest revenue contributor to Comfort Delgro). Phase III of COVID-19 reopening creates higher mobility from the higher number of participants allowed in various events including weddings and religious services. 

Let's not be fooled by the increase in the company's increase in PER, the increase was caused by the low earnings rather than an increase in share price thus for investors who have not have Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) in the portfolio, they still have a chance to do it. 

ComfortDelgro (CD): Higher Mobility Expected

Singapore

SIA Engineering Co Ltd provides airframe and component overhaul services, line maintenance and technical ground handling services. The Company also manufactures aircraft cabin equipment, refurbishes aircraft galleys, repairs and overhauls hydromechanical aircraft equipment.

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SIA Engineering (SIE SP)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

Air cargo demand growth appears to be moderating, and most carriers reported low (sub-70%) load factors in December. In short, we see few signs of...

Tracking Traffic

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.

DBS emphasizes TSV project for GVT, CGSI projects strong earnings for Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, maintains 'buy' rating on...

Singapore Market Roundup

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Comfort Delgro (CD): Pandemic to Endemic Beneficiary

from pandemic to endemic, Comfortdelgro Corp is the main beneficiary through the higher traffic in the domestic travel (through MRT and busses) and...

Henry Soediarko

ComfortDelgro (CD): Higher Mobility Expected

HK-SG travel bubble, Phase III, higher mobility in workplace are key catalysts to start accumulating ComfortDelgro's shares now.

Henry Soediarko

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