Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> is under Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. </li>
<li>This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) is under Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. 
This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.


Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. </li>
<li>It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. </li>
<li>Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. 
It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. 
Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>I see no new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro (TYR AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True (TRUE TB)</a></strong> / <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
I see no new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week.
Key updates took place for Tyro (TYR AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), and True (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."</li>
<li>This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.</li>
<li>It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."
This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.
It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.


Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>Our latest Webinar looks at news updates on Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction. To help us explore the implications for investors, we welcome Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> of Quiddity Advisors. </p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85181403738" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div></div><p>Travis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.</p>

Our latest Webinar looks at news updates on Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction. To help us explore the implications for investors, we welcome Insight Provider Travis Lundy of Quiddity Advisors. The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereTravis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.

Smartkarma Webinar | Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction Updates

Japan

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

Aruhi (7198) today lowered full-year guidance (rev -11.6%, NetInc -28%) which means SBI has to extend its Tender Offer to 11 Nov. Knee-jerk...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

The October 2022 TOPIX FFW rebalance - ¥2.1trln a side - is to be executed on Friday. There are some large flows on event names, and elsewhere. The...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Shinsei was yesterday reported to be "planning to privatise Shinsei Bank" and today "no concrete steps are being considered to delist the Bank"....

Travis Lundy

Smartkarma Webinar | Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction Updates

Smartkarma is hosting a webinar with Analyst Travis Lundy, who will cover Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction News Updates

Smartkarma Research

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