Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US homebuilders outperformance after Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgages were at 18-month lows a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu should also see upside given its US PVC exposure, with the stock looking oversold after heavy foreigner selling MTD.</li>
<li>Shiseido's first new product launch in 4-years for 'Elixir' range, along with reports that its domestic business is picking up, may be enough to spark a squeeze off multi-year lows.</li>
</ul>


US homebuilders outperformance after Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgages were at 18-month lows a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House.
Shin-Etsu should also see upside given its US PVC exposure, with the stock looking oversold after heavy foreigner selling MTD.
Shiseido's first new product launch in 4-years for 'Elixir' range, along with reports that its domestic business is picking up, may be enough to spark a squeeze off multi-year lows.


Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.</li>
<li>The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase. Yet, you can buy the key players today for the same price you would have paid 5 years ago. That's nice..</li>
</ul>


During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase. Yet, you can buy the key players today for the same price you would have paid 5 years ago. That's nice..


Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

<ul>
<li>NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.</li>
<li>With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.</li>
<li>US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.</li>
</ul>


NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.
With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.
US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.


Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

<ul>
<li>ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.</li>
<li>Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">TEL (8035)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai (6525).</a>
</li>
<li>Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">KHI (7012 JP)</a> rebound sharply also.</li>
</ul>


ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see Softbank Group (9984 JP) rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.
Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of TEL (8035) and Kokusai (6525).

Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) and KHI (7012 JP) rebound sharply also.


Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...

Andrew Jackson

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

A focus on sector balance continues to be positive for consumer goods candidates. US markets stabilizing with strong buy the dip candidates. Fed...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

​US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...

Andrew Jackson

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

A focus on sector balance continues to be positive for consumer goods candidates. US markets stabilizing with strong buy the dip candidates. Fed...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

​ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...