Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%</li>
<li>We believe that sales in 2023 have simply reverted back to trend. We expect sales to grow in 2024 as underlying demand drivers remain intact</li>
<li>With the stock down 9% over the past year, we believe the market has discounted the profit revision. We see good value at 17x EV/EBIT</li>
</ul>


Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%
We believe that sales in 2023 have simply reverted back to trend. We expect sales to grow in 2024 as underlying demand drivers remain intact
With the stock down 9% over the past year, we believe the market has discounted the profit revision. We see good value at 17x EV/EBIT


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.
JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan
DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

<ul>
<li>Shimano's Q4 results were on track, but management is guiding for a GFC-level slump in 2023</li>
<li>Management cites macro concerns, but these are well-known, discounted, and already recovering...probably</li>
<li>Shimano's stock price is trading at 23x bearish guidance versus its historical average of 25x. </li>
</ul>


Shimano's Q4 results were on track, but management is guiding for a GFC-level slump in 2023
Management cites macro concerns, but these are well-known, discounted, and already recovering...probably
Shimano's stock price is trading at 23x bearish guidance versus its historical average of 25x. 


<ul>
<li>Shimano's stock has declined by 26% YTD reflecting concerns over an economic recession and sales normalization post pandemic</li>
<li>We believe that Shimano is a key beneficiary of government policy aimed at decarbonization</li>
<li>We analyse Shimano's core value drivers and see at around 23% upside for the stock</li>
</ul>


Shimano's stock has declined by 26% YTD reflecting concerns over an economic recession and sales normalization post pandemic
We believe that Shimano is a key beneficiary of government policy aimed at decarbonization
We analyse Shimano's core value drivers and see at around 23% upside for the stock


Shimano (7309) | Value Drivers in an Age of Sobriety

<ul>
<li>After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. </li>
<li>Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE</li>
<li>These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors</li>
</ul>


After leading the market higher in 2021, growth stocks have significantly underperformed over the past 12 months. 
Valuations may not yet have reached rock bottom levels and all these 3 stocks still trade at a premium to our universe of 14x PE
These 3 stocks all have strong long-terms structural drivers that make buying on the dip attractive for patient investors


Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

Japan

SHIMANO INC. manufactures and sells products for bicycling, snowboarding, and fishing.  The Company's products include running gears and brake parts for bicycles and rods, reels, and tackles for fishing.  The Company manufactures golf related products as well.  Shimano mainly exports to Asia, Europe, and the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shimano Inc (7309 JP)

Shimano (7309) | The Hangover

Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%. We remain bullish as long-term consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | Doom and Gloom?

Shimano guidance for 2023 was well below the street with OP forecast to decline 29% YoY to 105 billion yen (street Y160b).

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | Value Drivers in an Age of Sobriety

Shimano's stock has declined by 26% YTD. We are bullish on the name despite near term headwinds and believe the stock is one of the key...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | 3 Growth Stocks to Buy on the Dip

No major movers to highlight over the past week as investors pay more attention to the World Cup. We highlight 3 growth stocks that have...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)