Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth.</p>
<p>It has erred and stumbled in its online strategy too but this Autumn claims it will finally deliver an online store and app that makes sense for customers.</p>
<p>However, without a more fundamental restructuring of merchandise, stores and positioning, this alone won’t be enough for long-term survival given the improving cost performance of competitors off and online.</p>

Shimamura (8227 JP) has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth.
It has erred and stumbled in its online strategy too but this Autumn claims it will finally deliver an online store and app that makes sense for customers.
However, without a more fundamental restructuring of merchandise, stores and positioning, this alone won’t be enough for long-term survival given the improving cost performance of competitors off and online.

Shimamura to Fix Online Channel but Much More Work Is Needed

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/359/original/2020-06-30_04-46-42.png?1593460016" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143359"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/360/original/2020-06-30_04-47-13.png?1593460057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143360"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>STAYIN' HOME</strong> - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.</p>
<div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-6.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><br>6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

<p>2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they revised FY20 revenue guidance from ¥2,340bn to ¥2,090bn and OP guidance from ¥245bn to ¥145bn. Also, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> revised its DPS guidance. Initially, the company had planned to increase its interim dividend by ¥10 to ¥250 per share, in the 2QFY20 earnings release, the company said that they will maintain the dividend at the previous year’s level.</p>

2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they revised FY20 revenue guidance from ¥2,340bn to ¥2,090bn and OP guidance from ¥245bn to ¥145bn. Also, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) revised its DPS guidance. Initially, the company had planned to increase its interim dividend by ¥10 to ¥250 per share, in the 2QFY20 earnings release, the company said that they will maintain the dividend at the previous year’s level.

Fast Retailing 2QFY20 Results: Revised Revenue Guidance Is More a Bull Scenario

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/647/original/2020-03-31_04-53-29.png?1585598052" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125647"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>MONDAY 30th MARCH</strong> - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyfull-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17505:1" rel="noopener">Joyfull (9942 JP)</a></strong>restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was <strong>6:12</strong>, with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a></strong>being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the <strong>Utilities</strong> Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth <strong>¥200b</strong> intervention represented <strong>6.3%</strong> of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsMONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making Joyfull (9942 JP)restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP) and Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<p>Since the 17<sup>th</sup> of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.</p>

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those with heavy weights in the Nikkei. While it has required some very nimble trading the alpha generation if you were on the right side of the trades has been exceptionally good. We summarise the performance of the names we have highlighted and our thoughts on when to close out these trades below.

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Japan

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

Shimamura to Fix Online Channel but Much More Work Is Needed

Shimamura (8227 JP) has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth. It has erred and stumbled in its...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

Fast Retailing 2QFY20 Results: Revised Revenue Guidance Is More a Bull Scenario

2QFY20 was a challenging quarter for Japan’s largest apparel retailer Uniqlo. The company warned investors that the worst is yet to come as they...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven...

Campbell Gunn

Taking Stock of the Almost Excessive Alpha Generation From TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trades

Since the 17th of March we have published several notes regarding skews in performance between names that have heavy weights in TOPIX vs. those...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)