Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> and Toyota parts supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisan-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16945:1" rel="noopener">Aisan Industry (7283 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/343/original/2020-09-29_05-51-10.png?1601326304" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162343"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/344/original/2020-09-29_05-52-10.png?1601326345" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162344"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>9 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer Shimamura (8227 JP) and Toyota parts supplier Aisan Industry (7283 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
9 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their lunches at convenience stores.Although this led to another major drop in total sales, several sectors did very well and in June there was a surge in spending at some speciality chains and a return to some semblance of normality for many.

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their lunches at convenience stores.Although this led to another major drop in total sales, several sectors did very well and in June there was a surge in spending at some speciality chains and a return to some semblance of normality for many.

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth.
It has erred and stumbled in its online strategy too but this Autumn claims it will finally deliver an online store and app that makes sense for customers.
However, without a more fundamental restructuring of merchandise, stores and positioning, this alone won’t be enough for long-term survival given the improving cost performance of competitors off and online.

Shimamura (8227 JP) has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth.
It has erred and stumbled in its online strategy too but this Autumn claims it will finally deliver an online store and app that makes sense for customers.
However, without a more fundamental restructuring of merchandise, stores and positioning, this alone won’t be enough for long-term survival given the improving cost performance of competitors off and online.

Shimamura to Fix Online Channel but Much More Work Is Needed

Japan

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their...

Michael Causton

Shimamura to Fix Online Channel but Much More Work Is Needed

Shimamura (8227 JP) has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth. It has erred and stumbled in its...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their...

Michael Causton

Shimamura to Fix Online Channel but Much More Work Is Needed

Shimamura (8227 JP) has seen sales decline in the past few years after decades of consistent, reliable growth. It has erred and stumbled in its...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan