Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Equity Bottom-Up

Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Honeys is proving a resilient provider of low-cost women’s basic fashions in Japan. </li>
<li>While it struggled after losing the fickle younger fan base five years ago, Honeys has bounced back through careful control of costs that has kept prices down.</li>
<li>Along with Workman and Shimamura, Honeys looks to be one of the longer-term beneficiaries of the shift to discount apparel, particularly in rising operating margins.</li>
</ul>


Honeys is proving a resilient provider of low-cost women’s basic fashions in Japan. 
While it struggled after losing the fickle younger fan base five years ago, Honeys has bounced back through careful control of costs that has kept prices down.
Along with Workman and Shimamura, Honeys looks to be one of the longer-term beneficiaries of the shift to discount apparel, particularly in rising operating margins.


<ul>
<li>The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. </li>
<li>The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.</li>
<li>The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.</li>
</ul>


The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. 
The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.
The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.


Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Japan

USS CO LTD manages used car auction facilities throughout  Japan. The Company al so conducts auto auctions through satellites, and provides used car information through internet.

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

ABC-MART, INC. plans, develops, wholesales, and retails shoes.  The Company also plans and develops brand name shoes such as VANS and G.T. HAWKINS.  ABC-Mart imports and wholesales shoes, apparel, bags, and sundries as well.

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

BIC CAMERA INC. operates electronic retail stores throughout Japan focusing on the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company sells audio and video equipments, electrical home appliances and telecommunication equipments.  Bic Camera also runs an Internet shopping site.

K'S HOLDINGS CORPORATION, based in Ibaraki prefecture, operates large scale electrical appliance store chain.  Franchise stores operates throughout Japan. The Company sells a variety of electrical appliances including refrigerators, washing machines, cooking appliances, computers, audio & visual systems, and air conditioners.

Sanrio Company, Ltd. manufactures and sells character goods including gift merchandise, greeting cards, and stationery products.  The Company also produces books, magazines, and movies, and though its subsidiary, operates restaurants and amusement parks.

KOMERI CO., LTD. operates a home center chain based in Niigata Prefecture. The Company sells DIY (do-it-yourself) products, building materials, tools, hardware, household utensils, gardening materials, car care goods, and leisure goods.  Komeri also operates business in China.

T-GAIA CORPORATION sells cell-phone units and service contracts in Japan. The Company also offers high-speed internet connection service through sales agencies.

DCM Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company established through merger of Kahma, Daiki, and Homac.  The Company operates home center chain stores throughout Japan.  DCM Japan Holdings offers merchandise such as home improvement products, household utensils, gardening supplies, sporting/leisure goods, and pet products .

Premier Investments Ltd., through subsidiaries, retails clothing.  The Company retails name brand casual and business clothing for men and women, and stationery and storage products.

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer. The Company offers products such as crafts, party, candy, sports, media, and seasonal products. Five Below serves its customers throughout the United States.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. operates retail stores and direct response, including a catalog and Web sites.  The Company's Urban Outfitters and Anthropologie retail concepts sell fashion apparel, accessories, and household and gift merchandise. Urban also designs and markets young women's casual wear which it provides to the Company's retail operations and sells to retailers worldwide.

Home Product Center Public Company Limited is a retailer of building materials and home improvement products.

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. retails men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, outerwear, and accessories.  The Company's products include jeans, khakis, T-shirts, and other similar apparel.  American Eagle operates in the United States.

Foot Locker, Inc. is primarily a mall-based athletic retailer that operates athletic retail stores in countries located in North America, Europe, and Australia.  The Company provides athletic footwear and apparel through its Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, and Champs Sports retail stores. Foot Locker also operates a direct-to-consumer channel, Footlocker.com/Eastbay.

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. sells western and work gear for individuals and families. The Company sells boots, jeans, shirts, hats, belts, jewelry, among other products. Boot Barn operates throughout the Untied States.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is a retailer of auto parts and accessories. The Company operates stores in various states, primarily  located in the northeastern, southeastern, and midwestern regions of the United States, and in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Group 1 Automotive, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates automobile dealerships.  The Company sells new and used cars and light trucks, provides maintenance and repair services, and sells replacement parts.  The Company also arranges related financing, insurance, and extended service contracts.  Group 1 operates in Florida, Georgia, Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas.

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Honeys: Sweet Profit in a Downturn

Honeys was burnt badly by hubris but in the past five years has learnt humility and new disciplines, developing compelling ranges at low prices...

Michael Causton

Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Japan's fashion and apparel sector was severely hit by the pandemic and the loss of tourism. With wallets full, Japanese are now spending again...

Michael Causton

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