Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> reported 2023 results yesterday.  2H23 continued to be weak, with sales down 6% yoy.  Net profit grew 10% yoy in 2H23.</li>
<li>Most importantly, the company sounded quite bullish on 2024 during the results briefing, which greatly improves the visibility in the order recovery thesis of the company.</li>
<li>I continue to believe that Shenzhou is the best proxy for gaining exposure to the global sportswear sector, especially given the improved visibility now. </li>
</ul>



Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) reported 2023 results yesterday.  2H23 continued to be weak, with sales down 6% yoy.  Net profit grew 10% yoy in 2H23.
Most importantly, the company sounded quite bullish on 2024 during the results briefing, which greatly improves the visibility in the order recovery thesis of the company.
I continue to believe that Shenzhou is the best proxy for gaining exposure to the global sportswear sector, especially given the improved visibility now. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Higher Visibility Into Restocking Cycle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. </li>
<li>Nike's inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a>, as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. </li>
<li>Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. </li>
</ul>



Nike (NKE US) reported better than expected 1Q24 results this morning, with the stock up 8% in after market trading. 
Nike's inventories declined by 10% yoy during the quarter, which bodes well for Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), as sales to Nike made up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. 
Shenzhou is trading at 15x 2024E PE, compared to an average of 21x forward PE over the last decade. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike's Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

<ul>
<li>Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies</li>
<li>Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive</li>
<li>Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile</li>
</ul>


Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies
Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive
Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile


Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. </li>
<li>Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. </li>
</ul>



Nike (NKE US) reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. 

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. 
Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

China

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

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Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Higher Visibility Into Restocking Cycle

Major brokerage firms are upgrading the company recently, due to upbeat order expectations. I continue to like the name and believe the visibility...

Steve

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike's Inventories Declined By 10% Yoy in 1Q24

Note the strong share price momentum. Shenzhou (2313 HK) remains the best proxy for gaining exposure to the global sportswear sector.

Steve

Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

Consensus estimates do not account for customer, retailer, Asian market share shift, macro, alt data and geopolitical risks.

Robert C Prather Jr

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

What the market seemed to ignore is that Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24.

Steve

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

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