HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China Education Sector, specifically <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>, should see better performance in 2022 as regulatory concerns gradually ease. 1H22 result for higher education segment should be a proof.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> could reverse the bad fortune in 2022 on the back of realisation of undervalued assets, expansion of logistics facilities and better performance at Shenzhen Airlines.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> remains an undervalued asset play. Its ability to realise value of its investment portfolio, potential resumption of dividend payout and recovery of sportswear business are drivers.</li>
</ul>


China Education Sector, specifically China Education Group (839 HK), should see better performance in 2022 as regulatory concerns gradually ease. 1H22 result for higher education segment should be a proof.

Shenzhen International (152 HK) could reverse the bad fortune in 2022 on the back of realisation of undervalued assets, expansion of logistics facilities and better performance at Shenzhen Airlines.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK) remains an undervalued asset play. Its ability to realise value of its investment portfolio, potential resumption of dividend payout and recovery of sportswear business are drivers.


Our Three Worst Calls in Last Year and Any Room for a Reversal in 2022?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61939" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive in the context of its unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses.  </li>
<li>The IPO price is HK$16.42 and it closed -9% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive in the context of its unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses.  
The IPO price is HK$16.42 and it closed -9% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.  


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (9699 HK)</a> is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (9699 HK) is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (1874747D CH)</a> is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider in China. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to reports. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-initiation-missed-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60224" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery</a>, we stated that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of gross losses and cash burn. </li>
<li>The PHIP which discloses 5M21 results continues to highlight the growth at all costs strategy. We continue to think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (1874747D CH) is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider in China. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to reports. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery, we stated that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of gross losses and cash burn. 
The PHIP which discloses 5M21 results continues to highlight the growth at all costs strategy. We continue to think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (1874747D CH)</a> is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider with an 11.0% market share in the 12 months ended 31 March 2021, according to iResearch. </p><p>SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. SF Intra-city’s controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, which holds a 75.1% stake. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses (at the gross profit level) and cash burn. In comparison to recent logistics IPOs such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a>, SF Intra-city’s disclosure particularly on unit cost economies is sorely lacking. On balance, we think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. Considering the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs, this IPO warrants a pass. </p></div>

SF Intra-City (1874747D CH) is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider with an 11.0% market share in the 12 months ended 31 March 2021, according to iResearch. SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. SF Intra-city’s controlling shareholder is S.F. Holding (002352 CH), which holds a 75.1% stake. SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses (at the gross profit level) and cash burn. In comparison to recent logistics IPOs such as ANE Logistics (1292621D CH), SF Intra-city’s disclosure particularly on unit cost economies is sorely lacking. On balance, we think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. Considering the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs, this IPO warrants a pass. 

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery

Hong Kong

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

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Shenzhen International (152 HK)

Our Three Worst Calls in Last Year and Any Room for a Reversal in 2022?

China Education Sector, Shenzhen Intl and China Dongxiang are the three worst calls that we made in last year. We believe there is room for a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Trading Debut

The IPO price is HK$16.42 and shares will be listed on 14 Dec. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses

SF Intra-city is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to show that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at...

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery

SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring and...

Arun George

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