Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Corporate "net-zero" climate pledges are all the rage of late, with proud press releases being issued on a daily basis. This is a welcome trend – the world is woefully behind climate goals and based on current national pledges, we have a 5% chance of achieving the Paris Agreement's 2-degree goal.Corporate climate action is imperative.However, corporate pledges aren't always what they purport to be. Occasional greenwashing aside, even well-intentioned pledges from reputable companies can be misleading. Not intentionally, but due to ambiguous "net-zero" vernacular and the complexities of corporate climate action plans.The devil is in the details, for example:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN)</a> has a 2050 goal premised on carbon offsets (not reductions) of a magnitude larger than today's entire global carbon offset markets in those specific areas.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21847:1" rel="noopener">BP plc (BP LN)</a> plans net-zero by 2050 via offsets and continued oil production is incompatible with 2-degree global warming (plus it funds lobbying against climate-change regulations).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a> aims to be carbon negative by 2030, and by 2050 to have removed all CO2 emitted in its entire history (impossible with current technologies and offset markets).</li>
</ul>This Insight addresses those details. What to look for, and how to scrutinize climate pledges. Major differences between net-zero emissions, net-zero carbon, and carbon neutral. Emissions reduction versus offsetting. And the need for careful planning and long lead times, with no room for error.This will also serve as theoretical context for upcoming Insights that delve deeper into corporate climate pledges (e.g., a thematic report on science-based targets, and critiques of company-specific pledges).

Corporate "net-zero" climate pledges are all the rage of late, with proud press releases being issued on a daily basis. This is a welcome trend – the world is woefully behind climate goals and based on current national pledges, we have a 5% chance of achieving the Paris Agreement's 2-degree goal.Corporate climate action is imperative.However, corporate pledges aren't always what they purport to be. Occasional greenwashing aside, even well-intentioned pledges from reputable companies can be misleading. Not intentionally, but due to ambiguous "net-zero" vernacular and the complexities of corporate climate action plans.The devil is in the details, for example:

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) has a 2050 goal premised on carbon offsets (not reductions) of a magnitude larger than today's entire global carbon offset markets in those specific areas.

BP plc (BP LN) plans net-zero by 2050 via offsets and continued oil production is incompatible with 2-degree global warming (plus it funds lobbying against climate-change regulations).

Microsoft (MSFT US) aims to be carbon negative by 2030, and by 2050 to have removed all CO2 emitted in its entire history (impossible with current technologies and offset markets).
This Insight addresses those details. What to look for, and how to scrutinize climate pledges. Major differences between net-zero emissions, net-zero carbon, and carbon neutral. Emissions reduction versus offsetting. And the need for careful planning and long lead times, with no room for error.This will also serve as theoretical context for upcoming Insights that delve deeper into corporate climate pledges (e.g., a thematic report on science-based targets, and critiques of company-specific pledges). 

Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

February has seen several very large ESG-linked and sustainability bond issuances, some in double-digits billions of dollars and setting records. Issuers include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem (051910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:865:1" rel="noopener">Anheuser Busch Inbev (ABI BB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hennes-mauritz-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22380:1" rel="noopener">Hennes &amp; Mauritz Ab (HMB SS)</a>.Unlike green bonds, the proceeds from which usually finance one specific project, these deals allow issuers to invest proceeds in multiple areas of sustainability/ESG like renewable energy, recycling, and various Social-pillar initiatives. This has the potential to create a virtuous cycle, as it were.Importantly, a common characteristic of the deals discussed herein is that interest rates are tied to sustainability or ESG performance; if issuers fall short of targets the cost of servicing the debt goes up. Demand has been strong; H&amp;M's was seven times over, and it was able to price at lower rates.More than US$15 billion, just one month into the year.

February has seen several very large ESG-linked and sustainability bond issuances, some in double-digits billions of dollars and setting records. Issuers include LG Chem (051910 KS), Anheuser Busch Inbev (ABI BB), and Hennes &amp; Mauritz Ab (HMB SS).Unlike green bonds, the proceeds from which usually finance one specific project, these deals allow issuers to invest proceeds in multiple areas of sustainability/ESG like renewable energy, recycling, and various Social-pillar initiatives. This has the potential to create a virtuous cycle, as it were.Importantly, a common characteristic of the deals discussed herein is that interest rates are tied to sustainability or ESG performance; if issuers fall short of targets the cost of servicing the debt goes up. Demand has been strong; H&amp;M's was seven times over, and it was able to price at lower rates.More than US$15 billion, just one month into the year.

Recent ESG-Linked and Sustainable Bond Issues Are Breaking Records in Size and Demand

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a> retains two main listings in both London and Amsterdam, both are also traded at the NYSE as ADR:
<ul>
<li>RDSA NA/RDSA LN, more liquid in Amsterdam
<ul>
<li>A shares, converted from Royal Dutch Petroleum, subject to Dutch withholding tax (15%).</li>
<li>Primarily listed in Amsterdam, with a secondary listing in London. </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>RDSB NA/RDSB LN more liquid in London.
<ul>
<li>B shares, converted from Shell Transport &amp; Trading.</li>
<li>There is no Dutch withholding tax on dividends paid on Royal Dutch Shell Class B ordinary shares or Class B ADSs provided that such dividends are paid on the Dividend Access Share pursuant to the Dividend Access Mechanism.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
“B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 5% with respect to the “A” shares.
<ul>
<li>
The reason is the effect of Dutch withholding taxes and the tax arrangements, which also create complexity for share buybacks, which could make up a larger proportion of distributions in the future.
</li>
</ul>
Shell has acknowledged over the last years that it might like to combine both  shares, should tax treatments allow it.
<ul>
<li>Oil majors are building renewables/low carbon businesses. In this scenario, they could part-list the pure play, retaining the operational synergies with the wider group but crystallising valuation, which would allow accessing new capital pools and providing investors with greater optionality.</li>
</ul>
RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average, which is a 2% premium to the B shares. I regard that discount level as attractive.
Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA) retains two main listings in both London and Amsterdam, both are also traded at the NYSE as ADR:

RDSA NA/RDSA LN, more liquid in Amsterdam

A shares, converted from Royal Dutch Petroleum, subject to Dutch withholding tax (15%).
Primarily listed in Amsterdam, with a secondary listing in London. 


RDSB NA/RDSB LN more liquid in London.

B shares, converted from Shell Transport &amp; Trading.
There is no Dutch withholding tax on dividends paid on Royal Dutch Shell Class B ordinary shares or Class B ADSs provided that such dividends are paid on the Dividend Access Share pursuant to the Dividend Access Mechanism.



“B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 5% with respect to the “A” shares.


The reason is the effect of Dutch withholding taxes and the tax arrangements, which also create complexity for share buybacks, which could make up a larger proportion of distributions in the future.


Shell has acknowledged over the last years that it might like to combine both  shares, should tax treatments allow it.

Oil majors are building renewables/low carbon businesses. In this scenario, they could part-list the pure play, retaining the operational synergies with the wider group but crystallising valuation, which would allow accessing new capital pools and providing investors with greater optionality.

RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average, which is a 2% premium to the B shares. I regard that discount level as attractive.
Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.

Unilever on the Verge of Unification, So... What About Royal Dutch Shell?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: <ul>
<li>Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.</li>
<li>Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.</li>
<li>Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.</li>
<li>Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.</li>
<li>UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.</li>
</ul>Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: 
Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US.
Taiwan key beneficiary of COVID rebalance, India sees outflows.
Cross country exodus seen in Financials/Energy.  Materials reverse long-term decline.
Active managers move towards defensive and secular growth sectors and out of cyclicals.
UK Energy stocks see decline, Dutch Tech stocks continue to attract new investment.
Taken from our Global fund analysis, covering 391 active global funds with combined AUM of $800bn.

Global Equity Positioning:  Macro Overview.  Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

United Kingdom

BP plc is an oil and petrochemicals company.  The Company explores for and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals.  BP's chemicals include terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene and polyethylene.

SEPLAT Petroleum Development Co Plc is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company incorporated and operating in Nigeria with a strategic focus on Nigeria.

Tullow Oil plc explores for and produces oil and gas. The Group's assets are in Africa, Europe, South America and Asia.

Savannah Energy PLC is a leading African focused British independent energy company with current operations in Nigeria and Niger, where the Company is sustainably developing high-quality and high-growth projects.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is an independent oil company. The Company operates Shaikan Field, one of the largest developments in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Genel Energy PLC  specializes in investing in oil and natural gas assets. The Company has stakes in producing oil fields, a gas condensate discovery and exploration acreage, all in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Pantheon Resources plc, through its subsidiaries, explores and produces oil and gas in the United States. The company owns a 50% working interest in four projects located in Tyler and Polk counties, East Texas. It also holds a 25% working interest in a project in Polk County, East Texas. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Hargreaves Services plc sources, produces, processes, handles, and transports carbon-based and other bulk materials in the United Kingdom and Europe. It operates in three segments: Coal Production and Distribution, Industrial Services, and Transport. The Coal Production and Distribution segment provides coal, coke, minerals, smokeless fuel, and biomass products to a range of industrial, wholesale, and public sector energy consumers. The Industrial Services segment offers contract management services to the power generation, utilities, chemicals, minerals, and steel industries. The Transport segment provides bulk logistic services. The company owns or operates nine surface coal mines, including seven in Scotland; one in Wales; and one in England, as well as four port terminals. In addition, it engages in the steel services business in South Africa; operates a fleet of 450-strong HGV trucks; haulage, mineral import, and processing; smokeless fuel briquette manufacturing; and wind and renewable energy business, as well as provides engineering maintenance services. Hargreaves Services plc was founded in 1994 and is based in Durham, the United Kingdom.

James Fisher & Sons P.L.C. is an ocean shipping company. The Company's operations include shipowning, ship management, chartering, freight forwarding, and insurance consulting.  Fisher also operates as ships' agency, in shipbroking, contracting, stevedoring, transport, port operations, and warehousing. The Company operates in the United Kingdom.

Hurricane Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties in the United Kingdom. The company holds interests in Lancaster basement discovery, Whirlwind basement discovery, Lincoln basement, Typhoon basement, Warwick basement, and Strathmore sandstone discovery prospects located to the West of Shetland. It has 100% interest in 450 million barrels of 2C contingent resources. The company was formerly known as Hurricane Exploration plc and changed its name to Hurricane Energy plc in April 2013. Hurricane Energy plc was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Godalming, the United Kingdom.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details

Companies announce net-zero climate pledges daily, but they aren't always what they claim. The devil is in the details. This Insight explains what...

Kyle Rudden

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Recent ESG-Linked and Sustainable Bond Issues Are Breaking Records in Size and Demand

Recently, three record-setting ESG-linked and sustainability-linked bond issues totaling US$15 billion. Three deals, two months into the year, and...

Kyle Rudden

Unilever on the Verge of Unification, So... What About Royal Dutch Shell?

RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average. I regard that discount level as attractive. Trade: Long RDSB ADR ...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Positioning: Macro Overview. Raising EU Overweights, Taiwan Vs India, UK Decouples

In our Macro Overview of Global fund positioning, we cover the following: Managers raise EMEA Overweight, hit max underweight in US. Taiwan key...

Steven Holden

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