Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but true adequacy depends on the nature of the FX regime* China can go forward or back on the FX regime; loosening controls on foreign flows sends a bold message* Expect greater flexibility of the CNY basket and wider bands, sooner rather than later, ahead of SDR* CNY will be a basket currency not a basket case and short-term weakness against the USD will not last

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but true adequacy depends on the nature of the FX regime* China can go forward or back on the FX regime; loosening controls on foreign flows sends a bold message* Expect greater flexibility of the CNY basket and wider bands, sooner rather than later, ahead of SDR* CNY will be a basket currency not a basket case and short-term weakness against the USD will not last

Asia Calling: CNY - A Basket Currency, Not a Basket Case

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.       

Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a <a href="http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2016-01/04/nw.D110000renmrb_20160104_1-02.htm" target="_blank">very important article</a> published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very important article published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

China

Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. mines, processes, and markets low sulfur high quality coal. The company also researches and develops coal and environment protection related technologies.

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

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Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

Asia Calling: CNY - A Basket Currency, Not a Basket Case

* CNY remains under pressure given the economic slowdown, concerns about debt and capital outflows* China's FX reserves look more than enough, but...

Callum Henderson

'Should You Trust the Bounce? '

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician...

ClearMacro

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very...

Hao Wang, CFA

The Sunni-Shia Canard

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of...

Emad Mostaque

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande,...

Ishita Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)