Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Zhejiang Huafeng Spandex A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 4 trading days to go the review period, we see 13 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.94% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.05bn.</li>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, the gap between the potential adds and deletes could narrow ahead of the announcement of the changes as pre-positions are built.</li>
</ul>


With 4 trading days to go the review period, we see 13 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.94% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.05bn.
With the review period nearly complete, the gap between the potential adds and deletes could narrow ahead of the announcement of the changes as pre-positions are built.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Nearly Complete

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.28% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.95bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> over the last two months but have underperformed the potential deletes. The gap has been narrowing recently.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the June rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 9 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.28% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.95bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the last two months but have underperformed the potential deletes. The gap has been narrowing recently.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Narrowing the Gap

Jiangxi Special Electric Motor A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 11.47% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 10.11bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last few weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. </li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. 
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.


Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

China

Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. mines, processes, and markets low sulfur high quality coal. The company also researches and develops coal and environment protection related technologies.

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Nearly Complete

There could be 13 changes to the CSI300 in June. We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.94% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Narrowing the Gap

Nearing the end of the review period, we see 14 potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 2.28% leading to a one-way trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continuing to Outperform

We forecast 50 changes a side at the June rebal leading to a one-way turnover of 11.47% & in a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)