Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<a target="_blank">China’s markets are again on the rise and showing a strong breakout this week . Furthermore, the ratio verses the S&amp;P 500 suggests it (China) is likely to outperform in the near term.</a>Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is showing a setup that may provide a platform for a rally to the tune of 9% from current levelsOverall, instead of a worrying September, Asian markets are presenting opportunities. There seems to be a rotation of sorts from the Far West, where markets had outperformed for much of this year, to the Far East where markets had underperformed and where sentiment (especially regarding China) seems too negatively stretched.

China’s markets are again on the rise and showing a strong breakout this week . Furthermore, the ratio verses the S&amp;P 500 suggests it (China) is likely to outperform in the near term.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is showing a setup that may provide a platform for a rally to the tune of 9% from current levelsOverall, instead of a worrying September, Asian markets are presenting opportunities. There seems to be a rotation of sorts from the Far West, where markets had outperformed for much of this year, to the Far East where markets had underperformed and where sentiment (especially regarding China) seems too negatively stretched.

China: Shanghai Breakout and Hong Kong's Bullish Setup

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chinese economy is mysteriously weak in 2021. Yet policy stimulus is so far muted
</li>
<li>China may be refocusing economy policy permanently away from ‘growth’ and towards ‘stability’
</li>
<li>This could mark a major ‘financialization’ drive linked to the growing international use of the Yuan</li>
<li>China’s domestic growth rate could potentially halve compared to the past decade</li>
<li>World GDP growth trend may be dented by around ½% per annum as result</li>
</ul>


Chinese economy is mysteriously weak in 2021. Yet policy stimulus is so far muted

China may be refocusing economy policy permanently away from ‘growth’ and towards ‘stability’

This could mark a major ‘financialization’ drive linked to the growing international use of the Yuan
China’s domestic growth rate could potentially halve compared to the past decade
World GDP growth trend may be dented by around ½% per annum as result


What China’s Economic Slowdown Really Means?

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

China: Shanghai Breakout and Hong Kong's Bullish Setup

Tables are turning in China - the Shanghai Composite not only looks bullish but starting to look like it will outperform the S&P 500 in the near...

Shyam Devani

What China’s Economic Slowdown Really Means?

The lack of policy response to China's marked economic slowdown in 2021 suggests a strategic shift towards 'stability' and away from 'growth',...

Michael J. Howell

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research