HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NHSA’s new regulation on <em>establishing a mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs and encouraging high-quality innovation</em> attracted widespread attention. However, it’s difficult to interpret this as an optimistic rule.</li>
<li>Although we see increasing interest in products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be acquired on a large scale in the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Based on 2023 results, Medicilon has entered a vicious circle. Multiple sell-offs made us question the moral standards of management. The risk is high for this type of small/lower-tier CXO.</li>
</ul>


NHSA’s new regulation on establishing a mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs and encouraging high-quality innovation attracted widespread attention. However, it’s difficult to interpret this as an optimistic rule.
Although we see increasing interest in products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be acquired on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
Based on 2023 results, Medicilon has entered a vicious circle. Multiple sell-offs made us question the moral standards of management. The risk is high for this type of small/lower-tier CXO.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) - New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Beijing Strong Biotechnolo-A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.</li>
<li>The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.</li>
</ul>


We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.


CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-nova-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40389:1" rel="noopener">United Nova Technology (688469 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biwin-storage-technology-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40391:1" rel="noopener">Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH)</a> were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-nova-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40389:1" rel="noopener">United Nova Technology (688469 CH)</a> had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9 changes for the STAR100 Index. Implementation will take place at the close on 14 June.

United Nova Technology (688469 CH) and Biwin Storage Technology (688525 CH) were not added at the March rebalance since they were consistently loss-making. But they have been added this time.

United Nova Technology (688469 CH) had been trading poorly and then the stock dropped further after non-inclusion in March. That could change now with inclusion confirmed.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.</li>
<li>There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.
There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.
With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

Shinva Medical Instrument A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?</li>
</ul>


The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.
At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

China

Guangzhou Boji Medical & Biotechnological Co., Ltd. is an outsourcing drug research and development company. The Company provides pharmaceutical companies the ability to conduct its researches and developments at lower cost levels and offers support to bring drugs and devices to the Chinese market quicker.

Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. researches, develops, and manufactures medical instruments. The Company's products include evacuated blood collection system, microbe specimen collection and transport, clinical testing reagent, equipment for clinical specimen testing & processing, etc.

Viva Biotech Holdings operates as a drug discovery platform. The Company provides target protein expression, structure researching, hit screening, drug candidate determination, and other services. Viva Biotech Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Maccura Biotechnology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, manufacturing, sales, and service of in-vitro diagnostic products. The Company provides biochemistry, immunity, rapid detection, blood, molecular diagnosis, pathology, raw materials, and more. Maccura Biotechnology conducts business in China.

Austar Lifesciences Limited provides integrated engineering solutions with services and products for pharmaceutical manufacturers and research institutes in China and other emerging countries. The Company also manufactures, sells and distributes pharmaceutical equipment and life science consumables.

Consun Pharmaceutical Group Limited is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the research, manufacturing and sale of modern Chinese medicines and medical contrast medium in the People's Republic of China.

Hunan Er-kang Pharmaceutical Company Limited develops, produces and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company's main product include pharmaceutical excipients and antibiotic products.

Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd manufactures and sells tablet medicine, capsule medicine, pill, freeze-dry powder injection, liquid injection and raw material medicine.  The Company's products include cardiovascular drug, cerebrovascular drug, antiinfective, and glucocorticoid drug.

Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co,Ltd. (002393 CH)

Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets pharmaceutical preparations and chemical synthetic pharmaceuticals.  The Company's products include injections, tablets, capsules, healthcare products, medical packaging materials, and other related products.

Jinling Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets pharmaceutical products.  The Company's products include the Mailuoning injection for the treatment of arteries and veins, as well as traditional Chinese and western pharmaceutical preparations.

PureTech Health plc operates as a healthcare company. The Company researches and licenses technology and videogames which are used as a treatment for neurological problems.

Quanterix Corporation develops ultra-sensitive detection systems for use in research and in-vitro diagnostics. The Company offers automated immunoassay technology for detection and quantification of biomarkers in in-vitro and companion diagnostics and blood screening. Quanterix provides its products in life science, oncology, and neurology research in the United States.

Pacific Biosciences of California Inc. has developed a novel approach to studying the synthesis and regulation of DNA, RNA and protein.  The Company's system enables real-time analysis of biomolecules with single molecule resolution.

Pacific Biosciences Of California (PACB US)

Shin Nippon Biomedical Laboratories Ltd is a contract research organization. The Company provides pre-clinical testing services in the pharmaceutical industry.

Selvita Spolka Akcyjna operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company discovers drugs, as well as provides research and development services. Selvita serves customers worldwide.

Standard BioTools Inc. offers technologies that help biomedical researchers develop medicines. The Company offers reliable and repeatable insights in health and disease using its proprietary mass cytometry and microfluidics technologies that help transform scientific discoveries into better patient outcomes.

CMIC Holdings Co., Ltd. is a Contract Research Organization (CRO) who provides medical research related services mainly to pharmaceuticals and medical organizations. Its service ranges from strategy and regulatory consulting, clinical monitoring,and data management.

Genfit is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches treatments for cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory diseases, and age-linked neurodegenerative disorders.

Ergomed plc provides clinical research, and drug development and safety services in the United Kingdom and rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Asia, and Australia. The company offers clinical development, trial management services, and pharmacovigilance services for pharmaceutical and generics companies, as well as small and mid-sized drug development companies. It focuses on various therapeutic areas, including oncology, neurology, and immunology, as well as the development of orphan drugs. The company?s clinical development services include study management, site management, study physician support, safety services, regulatory and quality management, clinical data management and biostatistics, and medical writing. It also provides late phase services, such as strategy and study design, medical training, regulatory consultancy, management of ISTs, full study management, publication management, site management, pharmacovigilance, tailored data capture solutions, REMS and RMPs, and medical information services; and co-development services for pharma and biotech companies. In addition, the company is involved in the studies of ultra-rare diseases, including infantile hypophsophatemia, paroxyzmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria, and primary hyperoxaluria; and the provision of the specialized site management model that allows smooth interaction of the sites and patient organizations, and advocacy groups. The company was formerly known as Ergomed Clinical Research Limited and changed its name to Ergomed plc in June 2014. Ergomed Plc was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Guildford, the United Kingdom.

Personalis, Inc. provides genomic sequencing and analytics solutions. The Company supports the development of personalized cancer vaccines and other next-generation cancer immunotherapies. Personalis serves customers worldwide.

Shanghai Medicilon Inc. develops pharmaceutical products. The Company produces acquired immune deficiency syndrome drugs, anticancer drug sensitizers, genetic engineering vaccines, biomedical intermediates, and other products. Shanghai Medicilon also provides biological analysis, drug safety evaluation, and other services.

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Shanghai Medicilon (688202 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) - New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon

NHSA released regulations to establish new mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs. It would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the STAR50 index and 9 for the STAR100. Some stocks will have same way flows from other index trackers. United Nova Tech is...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) - New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon

NHSA released regulations to establish new mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs. It would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

We expect the the CSI Medical Services ADDs to outperform the Medical Services DELs over the next few days. The Inclusion/Exclusion events could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Index Committee Flip-Flops on Profitability

There are 3 changes for the STAR50 index and 9 for the STAR100. Some stocks will have same way flows from other index trackers. United Nova Tech is...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas