HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2023 NRDL negotiation results were released. We're seeing the rules of NRDL renewal negotiations tilt toward innovative drugs, leading to lower price reduction, but there has been no fundamental change.</li>
<li>The record-breaking US$8.4 billion deal involving BMS and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-biokin-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40027:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) </a>(SystImmune) is not without risk, though. We still recommend to remain rational.</li>
<li>The issue facing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-haoyuan-chemexpress" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33415:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress (688131 CH)</a> is higher revenue but lower margins. Valuation will likely experience further declines due to lock-up expiry and share reduction.</li>
</ul>


2023 NRDL negotiation results were released. We're seeing the rules of NRDL renewal negotiations tilt toward innovative drugs, leading to lower price reduction, but there has been no fundamental change.
The record-breaking US$8.4 billion deal involving BMS and Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) (SystImmune) is not without risk, though. We still recommend to remain rational.
The issue facing Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress (688131 CH) is higher revenue but lower margins. Valuation will likely experience further declines due to lock-up expiry and share reduction.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We have always been concerned about QuantumPharm’s business model. It is relatively difficult for a service provider like QuantumPharm to scale up revenue by just relying on charging service fees.</li>
<li>For AI pharmaceutical companies, how to make money is a pain point for entire industry. Just focusing on preclinical stages would limit profitability.We haven’t seen any certainty of achieving breakeven.</li>
<li>Increasing competition would bring more challenges for QuantumPharm. Post-investment valuation in 2021 was too expensive.If its future performance falls short of expectations, then sooner or later the valuation will collapse. </li>
</ul>


We have always been concerned about QuantumPharm’s business model. It is relatively difficult for a service provider like QuantumPharm to scale up revenue by just relying on charging service fees.
For AI pharmaceutical companies, how to make money is a pain point for entire industry. Just focusing on preclinical stages would limit profitability.We haven’t seen any certainty of achieving breakeven.
Increasing competition would bring more challenges for QuantumPharm. Post-investment valuation in 2021 was too expensive.If its future performance falls short of expectations, then sooner or later the valuation will collapse. 


Pre-IPO QuantumPharm (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

<ul>
<li>There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.
The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.


STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

<ul>
<li>There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.</li>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.</li>
</ul>


There will be a bunch of rebalance announcements towards the start and at the end of the coming week. This includes the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and global indices.
The review period for the March rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and related indices ends on 16 February. The announcement of the changes will come couple of weeks later.
There were HUGE inflows to mainland China ETFs for yet another week as Central Huijin indicated that they would continue to buy/create ETFs units.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

China

Guangzhou Boji Medical & Biotechnological Co., Ltd. is an outsourcing drug research and development company. The Company provides pharmaceutical companies the ability to conduct its researches and developments at lower cost levels and offers support to bring drugs and devices to the Chinese market quicker.

Maccura Biotechnology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, manufacturing, sales, and service of in-vitro diagnostic products. The Company provides biochemistry, immunity, rapid detection, blood, molecular diagnosis, pathology, raw materials, and more. Maccura Biotechnology conducts business in China.

Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. researches, develops, and manufactures medical instruments. The Company's products include evacuated blood collection system, microbe specimen collection and transport, clinical testing reagent, equipment for clinical specimen testing & processing, etc.

Viva Biotech Holdings operates as a drug discovery platform. The Company provides target protein expression, structure researching, hit screening, drug candidate determination, and other services. Viva Biotech Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Austar Lifesciences Limited provides integrated engineering solutions with services and products for pharmaceutical manufacturers and research institutes in China and other emerging countries. The Company also manufactures, sells and distributes pharmaceutical equipment and life science consumables.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd. researches and develops cardiocerebral vascular drugs in China. The Company drugs address needs in the areas of anti-infective, metabolism, cardiovascular system, oncology and nervous system.

Consun Pharmaceutical Group Limited is a pharmaceutical company engaged in the research, manufacturing and sale of modern Chinese medicines and medical contrast medium in the People's Republic of China.

Hunan Er-kang Pharmaceutical Company Limited develops, produces and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company's main product include pharmaceutical excipients and antibiotic products.

Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd manufactures and sells tablet medicine, capsule medicine, pill, freeze-dry powder injection, liquid injection and raw material medicine.  The Company's products include cardiovascular drug, cerebrovascular drug, antiinfective, and glucocorticoid drug.

Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co,Ltd. (002393 CH)

Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets pharmaceutical preparations and chemical synthetic pharmaceuticals.  The Company's products include injections, tablets, capsules, healthcare products, medical packaging materials, and other related products.

Standard BioTools Inc. offers technologies that help biomedical researchers develop medicines. The Company offers reliable and repeatable insights in health and disease using its proprietary mass cytometry and microfluidics technologies that help transform scientific discoveries into better patient outcomes.

PureTech Health plc operates as a healthcare company. The Company researches and licenses technology and videogames which are used as a treatment for neurological problems.

Quanterix Corporation develops ultra-sensitive detection systems for use in research and in-vitro diagnostics. The Company offers automated immunoassay technology for detection and quantification of biomarkers in in-vitro and companion diagnostics and blood screening. Quanterix provides its products in life science, oncology, and neurology research in the United States.

Pacific Biosciences of California Inc. has developed a novel approach to studying the synthesis and regulation of DNA, RNA and protein.  The Company's system enables real-time analysis of biomolecules with single molecule resolution.

Pacific Biosciences Of California (PACB US)

Ergomed plc provides clinical research, and drug development and safety services in the United Kingdom and rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Asia, and Australia. The company offers clinical development, trial management services, and pharmacovigilance services for pharmaceutical and generics companies, as well as small and mid-sized drug development companies. It focuses on various therapeutic areas, including oncology, neurology, and immunology, as well as the development of orphan drugs. The company?s clinical development services include study management, site management, study physician support, safety services, regulatory and quality management, clinical data management and biostatistics, and medical writing. It also provides late phase services, such as strategy and study design, medical training, regulatory consultancy, management of ISTs, full study management, publication management, site management, pharmacovigilance, tailored data capture solutions, REMS and RMPs, and medical information services; and co-development services for pharma and biotech companies. In addition, the company is involved in the studies of ultra-rare diseases, including infantile hypophsophatemia, paroxyzmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria, and primary hyperoxaluria; and the provision of the specialized site management model that allows smooth interaction of the sites and patient organizations, and advocacy groups. The company was formerly known as Ergomed Clinical Research Limited and changed its name to Ergomed plc in June 2014. Ergomed Plc was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Guildford, the United Kingdom.

CMIC Holdings Co., Ltd. is a Contract Research Organization (CRO) who provides medical research related services mainly to pharmaceuticals and medical organizations. Its service ranges from strategy and regulatory consulting, clinical monitoring,and data management.

Shin Nippon Biomedical Laboratories Ltd is a contract research organization. The Company provides pre-clinical testing services in the pharmaceutical industry.

Selvita Spolka Akcyjna operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company discovers drugs, as well as provides research and development services. Selvita serves customers worldwide.

Genfit is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches treatments for cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory diseases, and age-linked neurodegenerative disorders.

Macrogen Inc. provides DNA sequencing and genome research services.  The Company also raises and sells transgenic and knockout mice to biotechnology institutes and pharmaceutical companies.  Macrogen develops DNA chips, which are used to improve the diagnosis and treatment of disease as well.

Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes small molecule drugs. The Company produces molecular block and pharmaceutical tool compounds and provides contract research organization, chemical manufacturing and control, and contract development manufacture organization services. Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress serves clients across worldwide.

Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress C (688131 CH)

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Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress C (688131 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15)-BMS/Biokin $8.4B Eye-Popping Deal, NRDL Negotiation Result, Haoyuan

2023 NRDL negotiation result is released, policy for innovative drugs become more friendly. BMS-Biokin $8.4B deal is record-breaking, but with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO QuantumPharm (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

QuantumPharm's business model struggle to scale revenue solely through service fees. Profitability is a pain point for AI pharmaceutical companies....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

There are 10 changes a side for the STAR100 Index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR100, NEXT50, LowVol30, KOSPI200, TW50, NWD, ITC, India Float

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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