Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Beijing Strong Biotechnolo-A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.</li>
<li>The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.</li>
</ul>


We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.


CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.</li>
<li>There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


CSI announced the changes for the June rebalance after market close on 31 May and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 14 June.
There are 5 adds/deletes - we correctly forecasted 3 adds and all 5 deletes. Passives need to trade 0.5-3x ADV on the adds and 0.5-2.1x ADV on the deletes.
With the index not very widely forecasted, the adds could outperform the deletes over the next week in a repeat of the performance at the December rebalance.


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

Shinva Medical Instrument A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?</li>
</ul>


The review period ended on 30 April, there are just over 2 weeks to announcement of the changes, and implementation will be done at the close on 14 June.
We forecast 5 potential changes for the index in June where there could be buying of 1.6-2.6x ADV on the adds and selling of 0.7-2.6x ADV on the deletes.
At the December 2023 rebalance, the adds outperformed the deletes in the weeks prior to announcement of the changes and then spiked post-announcement. Repeat this time?


CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.


Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.</li>
<li>After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.</li>
<li>Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.</li>
</ul>


Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.
After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.
Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.


Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

China

Microport Scientific Corp. manufactures interventional and minimally invasive devices for keyhole surgery. The Company's products are used to treat vascular diseases and is developing devices to treat diabetes and orthopedic diseases.

Shanghai Tofflon Science and Technology Company Limited develops, designs, produces and markets pharmaceutical freeze dryer and related systems. The Company's main products include in-place sterilisation, in-place lyophilization cleaners, laboratory freeze dryers, production freeze dryers, liquid nitrogen freeze dryers and freeze drying systems and equipments.

Shinva Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medical instruments and equipment.  The Company's products include sterilization equipment, radiation diagnosis and radiotherapy equipment, chemical indication products, and medical environmental protection equipment.

Double Medical Technology Inc. operates as an orthopedic devices manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells physical therapy equipment, orthopedic surgical instruments, injection puncture, and other products. Double Medical Technology markets its products throughout China.

Blue Sail Medical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells PVC gloves and other plastic products. The company also engages in the sale of  nitrile gloves, latex gloves,  paper pulp molding products, and a range of medical equipments.

Lifetech Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures and markets minimally invasive interventional medical devices for cardiovascular and peripheral vascular diseases and disorders.  The Company produces congenital heart defect occluders, vena cava filters, stent grafts, balloon catheters, and vascular plugs.

Edan Instruments Inc develops, produces and sells medical electronic equipments.  The Company's main products are fetal dopplers, electrocardiographs, fetal monitors and ultrasound scanners.

AK Medical Holdings Limited manufactures medical devices. The Company produces and sells orthopedic implants, spinal interbody cages, artificial vertebral bodies, and other products. AK Medical Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

Dirui Industrial Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells medical testing equipment and corollary reagents. The Company's main products are analyzers used in the research of bodily fluid, biochemical substances, and hematology.

Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1992. The company's line of business includes manufacturing of medical diagnostic tests.  Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech serves customers around the world.

Genertec Universal Medical Group Company Limited provides healthcare services. The Company offers medical financing, hospital investment and management, digitization, and clinical department upgrade advisory services. Genertec Universal Medical Group serves customers in Hong Kong.

Artivion Inc.(Artivion) is a medical device company focused on developing simple, elegant solutions that address cardiac and vascular surgeons' most difficult challenges in treating patients with aortic disease. The company's major products include:aortic stents, stent grafts, prosthetic heart valves, cyropreserved cardiac and vascular allografts, and surgical sealants.

AtriCure, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices designed to create precise lesions in soft tissues.  The Company's bipolar ablation system is used by cardiothoracic surgeons as a standard treatment alternative to create lesions in heart tissue to block the abnormal electrical impulses that cause atrial fibrillation.

Avanos Medical, Inc. operates as a medical technology company. The Company offers infection prevention, surgical, respiratory, digestive health, and pain management solutions. Avanos Medical serves healthcare sector worldwide.

Pegavision Corp is a result of a joint venture by Pegatron Corp and Kinsus Corp. The Company manufactures and sells soft contact lenses and other ophthalmic medical devices. Pegavision operates in Taiwan.

FUKUDA DENSHI CO., LTD. manufactures and wholesales electronic equipment for medical use.  The Company's products include electrocardiograph, phonocardiogram, ultrasonic diagnosis systems, physical condition monitoring systems, pacemakers, and respirators.

Paramount Bed Holdings Company Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures hospital, medical, electric, motorized, and orthopedic beds.

Draegerwerk AG & Company KGAA manufactures medical, safety, and aerospace equipment. The Company produces ventilators, monitoring equipment, transport incubators, anesthesia machines, surgical lights, ward equipment, home care equipment, systems for safe breathing in industry, mining and fire fighting, and airplane crew and passenger oxygen systems.

Pulse Biosciences, Inc. operates as a development stage medical device company. The Company offers a local and drug-free technology that utilizes nanosecond pulsed electric fields to induce cell signaling and the activation of cellular pathways in tissue.

Arjo AB develops, manufactures, and markets medical equipment for elderly and disabled patients. The Company offers medical beds, flusher disinfectors, prevention pumps, hygiene lifts, and shower systems. Arjo markets its products worldwide.

Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic Device Company Limited produces and sells medical devices. The Company manufactures and sells orthopedic implants and other products. Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic Device markets its products throughout China.

Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic De (688161 CH)

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Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic De (688161 CH)

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

Due to VBP and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, Weigao's 2023 results could be disappointing. Whether the performance will recover in 2024 is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

We expect the the CSI Medical Services ADDs to outperform the Medical Services DELs over the next few days. The Inclusion/Exclusion events could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance: Adds Could Outperform Deletes in the Coming Week

There are 5 changes for the index in June. We correctly forecast 3 adds and all 5 deletes. The adds outperformed the deletes post announcement in...

Brian Freitas

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Repeat of the December Rebal Could See Big Gains

There could be 5 changes for the CSI Medical Service Index in June. Trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2.6x ADV. There was big outperformance...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

​Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

Due to VBP and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, Weigao's 2023 results could be disappointing. Whether the performance will recover in 2024 is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...