Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Post market close on 28 May, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There are 25 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.67%.There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. There are 4 inclusions that will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 15 deletions that will have over 1 day of ADV to sell. The actual impact could be higher as cash and carry baskets are rebalanced and active managers reposition their portfolios to no deviate too far from their benchmark.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions by 15% over the last month and while there could be a pop in the returns over the next few sessions, we recommend gradually exiting existing positions and re-entering prior to implementation on a selloff in the trade.

Post market close on 28 May, the China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There are 25 inclusions and exclusions in the review with an estimated one-way turnover of 3.67%.There are 10 trading days to implementation of the changes. There are 4 inclusions that will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive funds while there are 15 deletions that will have over 1 day of ADV to sell. The actual impact could be higher as cash and carry baskets are rebalanced and active managers reposition their portfolios to no deviate too far from their benchmark.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions by 15% over the last month and while there could be a pop in the returns over the next few sessions, we recommend gradually exiting existing positions and re-entering prior to implementation on a selloff in the trade.

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 25 Changes as Long/Short Trade Does Well

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Event-Driven

We are nearly 95% through the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. With a large AUM in ETFs tracking the index, large open interest on the CFFEX listed futures, and volatile stocks, it could pay to look at the potential changes to the index.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.08% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 10.8bn.The expected inclusions have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> on a year to date basis even post the momentum selloff that started in February. Buying the inclusion basket vs selling the CSI300 futures as a hedge could provide good market neutral returns over the next few weeks.

We are nearly 95% through the review period for the June review of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX). With a large AUM in ETFs tracking the index, large open interest on the CFFEX listed futures, and volatile stocks, it could pay to look at the potential changes to the index.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.08% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 10.8bn.The expected inclusions have outperformed the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) on a year to date basis even post the momentum selloff that started in February. Buying the inclusion basket vs selling the CSI300 futures as a hedge could provide good market neutral returns over the next few weeks.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Recovering from the Growth Sell-Off

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There were 21 changes to the index at the June 2020 review and 26 changes at the December 2020 review. We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.56%.With passive tracking products holding around US$32bn of AUM, plus another US$53bn in open interest on the listed futures, plus active managers benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names from now to the end of the review period. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off. There should not be too many changes in the possible list of inclusions and exclusions due to the averaging process over the last year of trading.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There were 21 changes to the index at the June 2020 review and 26 changes at the December 2020 review. We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.56%.With passive tracking products holding around US$32bn of AUM, plus another US$53bn in open interest on the listed futures, plus active managers benchmarked to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names from now to the end of the review period. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off. There should not be too many changes in the possible list of inclusions and exclusions due to the averaging process over the last year of trading.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Number of Changes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

China

Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. manufactures urea, methanol, DMF (dimethylformamide), formaldehyde, trimethylamine, and other chemical products.

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Shandong Hualu Hengsheng A (600426 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance: 25 Changes as Long/Short Trade Does Well

There are 25 changes to the CSI300 Index that will be implemented at the close on 11 June. One-way turnover is 3.67% and the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Recovering from the Growth Sell-Off

We forecast 30 changes to the CSI300 Index at the June review that will be announced at the end of May and effective 11 June. The expected...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Number of Changes

We see 30 potential inclusions/exclusions to the CSI300 index at the June review that will become effective COB 11 June. With a lot of benchmarked...

Brian Freitas

Remain Overweight EM Relative To EAFE

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

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