Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.</li>
<li>Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jonjee-high-tech-industrial-and-commercial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14622:1" rel="noopener">Jonjee High-Tech</a> could be deleted from the CSI300 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12908:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining</a> from the SSE50.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> trades at a 41.7% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>, substantially lower than the 89% premium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34045:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (601728 CH)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



China Mobile (600941 CH) listed on 5 January after raising CNY 56bn in its A-share IPO. The stock could get Fast Entry to the CSI300, SSE50 and SSE180 indices.
Stocks will be deleted from these indices to maintain the number of index constituents. Jonjee High-Tech could be deleted from the CSI300 and Shandong Gold Mining from the SSE50.

China Mobile (600941 CH) trades at a 41.7% premium to China Mobile (941 HK), substantially lower than the 89% premium for China Telecom (601728 CH)/China Telecom (H) (728 HK). 


China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Consumer discretionary, consumer staple and health care sectors lower the overall A/H premium. </li>
<li>Real estate and industrials sectors are the only two sectors with WoW A/H premium increases.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week.
Consumer discretionary, consumer staple and health care sectors lower the overall A/H premium. 
Real estate and industrials sectors are the only two sectors with WoW A/H premium increases.


A/H Premium Weekly: Consumer and Health Care Lowered A/H Premium

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week. </li>
<li>The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Health Care (ΔA/H premium=+8.1ppt).  The average A/H premium of the the Health Care sector was also at 52 week high. </li>
<li>This is due to the A/H premia of many Health Care stocks at 52 week high: Wuxi Apptec, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Hepalink, and the increase of A/H for Join Lab, Haohai. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 134 stocks over the last week. 
The sector with the biggest A/H premium increase was Health Care (ΔA/H premium=+8.1ppt).  The average A/H premium of the the Health Care sector was also at 52 week high. 
This is due to the A/H premia of many Health Care stocks at 52 week high: Wuxi Apptec, Tigermed, Pharmaron, Hepalink, and the increase of A/H for Join Lab, Haohai. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Health Care A/H Premium at 52W High

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>Back on the 18th October, gold miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02436827-6A1056350?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended takeover offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10021:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU)</a>, by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP. Apollo shareholders would receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares plus cash of $0.34 for every Apollo share held, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Apollo's board, and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out would tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer was conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This looked like a done deal.</p>
<p>Then on the 21 October <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> made an unconditional off-market all-cash Offer  - <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02438747-6A1057185?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">at A$0.56/share</a>. Gold Road, holding 19.9% at the time of the announcement, also stood in the market at $0.56/share. </p>
<p>Yesterday, Ramelius bumped its Offer to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02445673-2A1335292?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$0.62/share</a> comprising $0.34/share in cash plus 0.1778 Ramelius shares for Apollo shares. Ramelius also secured binding agreements to acquire a 19.9% shareholding in Apollo from Apollo’s board and Apollo’s second-largest shareholder.</p>
<p>The Bidder's Statement has been <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02446051-6A1060474?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>, with a first closing date is on the 3 December. </p>
<p>The Offer is unconditional.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 18th October, gold miner Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) made a recommended takeover offer for Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU), by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP. Apollo shareholders would receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares plus cash of $0.34 for every Apollo share held, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Apollo's board, and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out would tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer was conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.


This looked like a done deal.
Then on the 21 October Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) made an unconditional off-market all-cash Offer  - at A$0.56/share. Gold Road, holding 19.9% at the time of the announcement, also stood in the market at $0.56/share. 
Yesterday, Ramelius bumped its Offer to A$0.62/share comprising $0.34/share in cash plus 0.1778 Ramelius shares for Apollo shares. Ramelius also secured binding agreements to acquire a 19.9% shareholding in Apollo from Apollo’s board and Apollo’s second-largest shareholder.
The Bidder's Statement has been dispatched, with a first closing date is on the 3 December. 
The Offer is unconditional.
More below the fold.


Apollo (AOP AU)'s Shares Trading Through Ramelius' Revised Offer

Travis Lundy

<div>
<p>Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-chenming-paper-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13775:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK)</a> situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shandong-chenming-paper-1812-hk-the-h-b-convergence-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49247" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade</a> mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.</p>
<p>But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).</p>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.46%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.39%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.92%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.50%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.91%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>Sector Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.88%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.41%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  0.26%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.02%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.96%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.59%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.05%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div><div><div></div></div><p><span>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.</span></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/770/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+8.25.25+PM.png?1616243179" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195770"></figure></section><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. </p></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/724/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.41.02+PM.png?1616233277" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195724"></figure></section></div><div>
<p>The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. </p>
<p>In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/728/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.03+PM.png?1616233457" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195728"></figure></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 81 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. </p>
<ul>
<li>Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> was up 10.6%.</li>
<li>All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. </li>
<li>Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. </li>
</ul>
</div><div></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a>) and the long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> and adding a long on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> H vs A.</p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. </p>
<p>This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.</p>
</div></div></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/729/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.45+PM.png?1616233498" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195729"></figure></section></div><div><section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section></div>


Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). 
The Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK) situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by David Blennerhassett in Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.
But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).


Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 2.46%
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%


Energy
-  0.39%
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.92%
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.50%
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%


Industrials
+ 1.19%
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%


Materials
+ 1.42%
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%


Utilities
-  0.91%
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%


Sector Average
+ 0.88%
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%


All Market Average
+ 0.96%
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%


10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. 
The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. 
In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. 
Last Week's Recommendations
There were 81 recommendations last week.
Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. 

Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) was up 10.6%.
All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. 
Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. 


Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (BYD (1211 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)) and the long in Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) and adding a long on Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) H vs A.
Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. 
This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Consumer Strong, Spreads Narrowing Masks A-Share Weakness

China

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. mines, produces, and processes gold, silver, and sulphur.

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (600547 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (600547 CH)

China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

China Mobile listed on the SSE on 5 Jan after raising CNY 56bn. Based on the index methodology, the stock should get Fast Entry to the CSI300,...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Weekly: Consumer and Health Care Lowered A/H Premium

We highlight that the consumer discretionary, consumer staple and health care sectors are the biggest driver for lower A/H premium WoW.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Weekly: Health Care A/H Premium at 52W High

We highlight that A/H premium of Health Care sector at 52 week high due to rumor of entity list inclusion, this is due to A/H premia of many...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Apollo (AOP AU)'s Shares Trading Through Ramelius' Revised Offer

I think Gold Road may reload - but the Ramelius' Offer price is already a 91.5% premium to the six-month undisturbed VWAP. I question how much...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Mobile (600941 CH): Potential Index Fast Entry

China Mobile listed on the SSE on 5 Jan after raising CNY 56bn. Based on the index methodology, the stock should get Fast Entry to the CSI300,...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Weekly: Consumer and Health Care Lowered A/H Premium

We highlight that the consumer discretionary, consumer staple and health care sectors are the biggest driver for lower A/H premium WoW.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Weekly: Health Care A/H Premium at 52W High

We highlight that A/H premium of Health Care sector at 52 week high due to rumor of entity list inclusion, this is due to A/H premia of many...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Apollo (AOP AU)'s Shares Trading Through Ramelius' Revised Offer

I think Gold Road may reload - but the Ramelius' Offer price is already a 91.5% premium to the six-month undisturbed VWAP. I question how much...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Consumer Strong, Spreads Narrowing Masks A-Share Weakness

The move in H/A spreads was 96bp this week. The strength in spreads masks some A-share weakness in the big and liquid names. Quiddity long/short...

Travis Lundy