Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) </a>is set to declare its Q3 2023 result in the 2nd week of November. We expect revenue/earnings growth of 41%YoY/44%YoY. </li>
<li>Q4 is the seasonally highest growth quarter, where the company makes 40% of its annual profits. A strong Q1-Q3 sets up a solid end to the year. </li>
<li>We believe the company will easily be able to meet or beat its guidance of 30% revenue and profit growth for FY23. Stock trades at 13x/9.8x PE FY23e/24e.</li>
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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) is set to declare its Q3 2023 result in the 2nd week of November. We expect revenue/earnings growth of 41%YoY/44%YoY. 
Q4 is the seasonally highest growth quarter, where the company makes 40% of its annual profits. A strong Q1-Q3 sets up a solid end to the year. 
We believe the company will easily be able to meet or beat its guidance of 30% revenue and profit growth for FY23. Stock trades at 13x/9.8x PE FY23e/24e.


Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM): A Strong Q3 2023 On The Cards, Good Momentum Into Q4

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<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> to release its results for H1 2023 in the second week of August. The stock just went ex-dividend today (17th July 2023).</li>
<li>We estimate Q1/H1 FY23 revenue to grow 36%/59% and profits to increase by 31%/71%, led by slight margin expansion for Q2 over Q1 as guided by the company. </li>
<li>Trading at 14.5x/11.1x PE with a growth profile of &gt;20% CAGR over the next 4-5 years, given the Potato Corner expansion, Shakey's Pizza could be an attractive investment opportunity. </li>
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We expect Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) to release its results for H1 2023 in the second week of August. The stock just went ex-dividend today (17th July 2023).
We estimate Q1/H1 FY23 revenue to grow 36%/59% and profits to increase by 31%/71%, led by slight margin expansion for Q2 over Q1 as guided by the company. 
Trading at 14.5x/11.1x PE with a growth profile of &gt;20% CAGR over the next 4-5 years, given the Potato Corner expansion, Shakey's Pizza could be an attractive investment opportunity. 


Shakeys Pizza: What to Expect From Q2 2023

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> conference reiterated a bullish outlook with 20% revenue/20% profit growth for FY23 and &gt;20% 3-year-CAGR revenue growth from FY23e-25e. </li>
<li>While the company sacrificed margin by 400 bps YoY to 20% GPM to grow Q1 FY23 revenues, they guided for improvements in subsequent quarters (this is a big positive).</li>
<li>Trading at 13.5x/10.5x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and execution remains the key to achieving a higher multiple as it achieves its high growth plans.</li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) conference reiterated a bullish outlook with 20% revenue/20% profit growth for FY23 and &gt;20% 3-year-CAGR revenue growth from FY23e-25e. 
While the company sacrificed margin by 400 bps YoY to 20% GPM to grow Q1 FY23 revenues, they guided for improvements in subsequent quarters (this is a big positive).
Trading at 13.5x/10.5x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and execution remains the key to achieving a higher multiple as it achieves its high growth plans.


Shakeys Pizza: Q1 2023 Concall Highlights, Bullish, Set For A Big Move

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> came in higher than analysts on earnings for FY22, posting an 873 mn peso bottom line number (vs. a 728 mn peso Bloomberg consensus).   </li>
<li>Systemwide sales grew 101% YoY to 14.1 bn pesos, with 4.5 bn pesos in the last quarter, up 113% YoY. Excluding Potato Corner, growth for the year was 37% YoY.</li>
<li>Based on their guidance for FY23 of 20% growth on the topline/bottom line, the stock trades at 13.7x FY23e PE with future growth in the mid-teens CAGR. </li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) came in higher than analysts on earnings for FY22, posting an 873 mn peso bottom line number (vs. a 728 mn peso Bloomberg consensus).   
Systemwide sales grew 101% YoY to 14.1 bn pesos, with 4.5 bn pesos in the last quarter, up 113% YoY. Excluding Potato Corner, growth for the year was 37% YoY.
Based on their guidance for FY23 of 20% growth on the topline/bottom line, the stock trades at 13.7x FY23e PE with future growth in the mid-teens CAGR. 


Shakeys Pizza: Q4 2022 Concall Guides For Teens CAGR Revenue Growth, Margins Flat

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> reported a strong SWS of 77% YoY in H1 and 121% YoY in Q2 2022. Excluding Potato Corner (PC), recovery tracked &gt;90% of 2019 levels. </li>
<li>The management guided that ex-PC recovery was over 100% in May and July, and numbers will improve with a resurgence in people at work, resulting in an upside to SWS.</li>
<li>We see margin upside as dine-in numbers are set to increase in H2 and the company beds down its PC acquisition; the stock trades at 16x/10x FY22/FY23e.</li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a strong SWS of 77% YoY in H1 and 121% YoY in Q2 2022. Excluding Potato Corner (PC), recovery tracked &gt;90% of 2019 levels. 
The management guided that ex-PC recovery was over 100% in May and July, and numbers will improve with a resurgence in people at work, resulting in an upside to SWS.
We see margin upside as dine-in numbers are set to increase in H2 and the company beds down its PC acquisition; the stock trades at 16x/10x FY22/FY23e.


Shakey's Pizza: Q2 2022 Recovery Far Better Than Expectations, Management Guidance Extremely Bullish

Philippines

Shakeys Pizza Asia Ventures Inc operates Shakey's pizza chain of full-service restaurant in the Philippines 

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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)