Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Philippines’ largest full-service Pizza chain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM)</a> is currently trading at PHP 7.60, 7.3% below its April 2022 follow-on offer price of PHP 8.20.</li>
<li>With the ending of COVID restrictions, we expect the company’s financial performance to improve drastically over the next few quarters.</li>
<li>This should alter the trajectory of Shakey’s to aggressively take back the share price towards the pre-COVID level.  </li>
</ul>


The Philippines’ largest full-service Pizza chain, Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is currently trading at PHP 7.60, 7.3% below its April 2022 follow-on offer price of PHP 8.20.
With the ending of COVID restrictions, we expect the company’s financial performance to improve drastically over the next few quarters.
This should alter the trajectory of Shakey’s to aggressively take back the share price towards the pre-COVID level.  


Shakey's Pizza: Getting Less Shaky As The Philippines Emerges From COVID

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> reported a 28% YoY/26% YoY sales/net profit increase for Q3 FY23 due to a sales softening in September. </li>
<li>Sales are expected to strengthen into Q4 as there is a seasonal uplift, although the QoQ increase is not expected to be in line with previous years.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 12.9x/9.9x PE FY23e/24e and will continue to see double-digit CAGR sales momentum.  The management retained its &gt;30% YoY growth target for FY23e. </li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) reported a 28% YoY/26% YoY sales/net profit increase for Q3 FY23 due to a sales softening in September. 
Sales are expected to strengthen into Q4 as there is a seasonal uplift, although the QoQ increase is not expected to be in line with previous years.
The stock trades at 12.9x/9.9x PE FY23e/24e and will continue to see double-digit CAGR sales momentum.  The management retained its &gt;30% YoY growth target for FY23e. 


Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) Concall Q3 2023: Soft, But Guidance Intact/Brace For Q4 High Season

<ul>
<li>We attended the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> conference call for H1 FY23. Management was upbeat and guided 30% top/bottom line growth for FY23 ( up from 20% in Q1 FY23)</li>
<li>The company reported its highest-ever quarterly systemwide sales of 4.6 bn pesos ( up 29% YoY) due to network expansion, dine-in recovery, and, to a certain extent, price hikes.</li>
<li>Trading at a 12.9x/9.9x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and growth of 20% CAGR over the next 3-4 years is not being factored in. </li>
</ul>


We attended the Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) conference call for H1 FY23. Management was upbeat and guided 30% top/bottom line growth for FY23 ( up from 20% in Q1 FY23)
The company reported its highest-ever quarterly systemwide sales of 4.6 bn pesos ( up 29% YoY) due to network expansion, dine-in recovery, and, to a certain extent, price hikes.
Trading at a 12.9x/9.9x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and growth of 20% CAGR over the next 3-4 years is not being factored in. 


Shakey's Pizza: Q2 2023 Stellar, Increasing Guidance to 30% YoY Top/Bottomline Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> declares its FY22 results on the 14th of April 2023, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> on the 20th of April 2023. </li>
<li>Despite its recent move upwards, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> trades at 9.6x/7.5x FY22e/23e PE and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> at 17.7x/11.3x FY22e/23e, with both boasting high double-digit future growth.</li>
<li>We discuss our expectations on the results for FY22 and prospects for Q1 2023. For mid/small-cap investors, these are great companies to invest in for exposure to the Philippines.</li>
</ul>



The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) declares its FY22 results on the 14th of April 2023, and Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) on the 20th of April 2023. 
Despite its recent move upwards, The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) trades at 9.6x/7.5x FY22e/23e PE and Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) at 17.7x/11.3x FY22e/23e, with both boasting high double-digit future growth.
We discuss our expectations on the results for FY22 and prospects for Q1 2023. For mid/small-cap investors, these are great companies to invest in for exposure to the Philippines.


Keepers Holdings / Shakeys Pizza FY22 Results: What to Expect

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Philippines ownership falls to record lows among active Asia Ex-Japan managers.</li>
<li>Only 58% of Asia Ex-Japan managers now have exposure, with most holding less than a 3% portfolio weight.</li>
<li>Shrinking benchmark weights and a dwindling active investor base means it is becoming ever easier to avoid Philippines exposure entirely.  </li>
</ul>


Philippines ownership falls to record lows among active Asia Ex-Japan managers.
Only 58% of Asia Ex-Japan managers now have exposure, with most holding less than a 3% portfolio weight.
Shrinking benchmark weights and a dwindling active investor base means it is becoming ever easier to avoid Philippines exposure entirely.  


The Philippines:  Asia Ex-Japan Fund Allocations Hit All-Time Low

Philippines

Premium Leisure Corporation invests in gaming, property development, pay-per-view entertainment, and information systems.  The company also explores oil and gas.

Pacific Online Systems Corporation designs, develops, and manages online computer systems, terminals, and software for the gaming industry in the Philippines. It operates through Leasing Activities, and Distribution and Retail Activities segments. The company sources technology from various suppliers of integrated gaming systems, and leases the equipment needed for the online lottery operations to the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO). It is also involved in the provision of technical support services to PCSO. In addition, the company distributes and sells instant tickets under the Scratchit brand name, as well as sells lottery and sweepstakes. Further, it manages a network of approximately 260 retail outlets that provide Lotto, Keno, and Scratchit products. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Pasig City, the Philippines.

Philippine Racing Club, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and maintains race tracks in metro Manila and other parts of the Philippines. It also manages betting stations; holds horse races; leases out stables; acquires, develops, and sells real estate properties, including leisure, recreational, and memorial parks; and owns, operates, manages, and/or sells real estate properties. The company was founded in 1937 and is based in Cavite, the Philippines.

Max's Group Incorporated is a chained full service restaurant in the casual dining segment operating a portfolio of brands both domestically and overseas. The Company is also licensed to operate certain international food brands.

PhilWeb Corporation provides gaming technology in the Asia Pacific region. It owns and operates e-Games cafes, Internet caf�, and kiosks that offer casino games, including baccarat, blackjack, various slot machine games, video poker, and sports betting. The company also develops and manufactures computer-based automated terminals; and operates various lottery and scratch card games. In addition, it is involved in developing and marketing computer and gaming systems, software applications, and programs; and the operation of gaming platforms in relation to Premyo sa Resibo program of the BIR, and Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation. Further, the company engages in the business of setting up Internet bingo stations and its operations, as well as operates and provides consultancy services related to amusement, recreational, gaming and gaming equipment facilities, and enterprises. The company was formerly known as PhilWeb.Com, Inc. and changed its name to PhilWeb Corporation in November 2002. PhilWeb Corporation was incorporated in 1969 and is based in Makati, the Philippines.

The Far Eastern University, Incorporated operates as a private non-sectarian institution of learning in the Philippines. It offers various programs in arts and sciences, such as Master of Arts (MA) in psychology; MA with majors in mass communication and letters; Bachelor of Arts in communication, English language, literature, political science, and international studies; and Bachelor of Science (BS) in biology, psychology, applied mathematics with information technology, and medical technology. The company also provides accounts, business, and finance programs, including BS in accountancy; and BS in business administration with majors in business economics, financial management, marketing management, human resource development management, operations management, business management, internal auditing, and legal management. In addition, it offers BS in hotel and restaurant management, and tourism management; Doctor of Education with major in educational administration; MA in education with majors in educational administration, thesis and non-thesis curriculum and instruction, and special education; Bachelor of Elementary Education with majors in general and special education; Bachelor of Secondary Education with majors in mathematics, sports and recreational management, English, and general science; and Bachelor of Physical Education with major in school physical education certificate and teacher certificate programs. Further, the company provides other programs that include BS in architecture; Bachelor of Fine Arts with majors in advertising arts and painting; Bachelor of Law and Juris Doctor; MA and BS in nursing; Master of Business Administration; and BS in accounting technology and information technology. Additionally, it offers engineering and computer studies programs; and pre-school to high school education. The Far Eastern University, Incorporated was founded in 1928 and is based in Manila, the Philippines.

Berjaya Philippines Inc., an investment holding company, is engaged in the leasing on-line lottery equipment and software support businesses in the Philippines. It operates in the Leasing, Services, Holdings and Investments, and Motor Vehicle Dealership segments. The company also owns, leases, and operates hotels and other buildings. In addition, it is engaged in the luxury motor vehicle retail and provision of after sales services. The company was formerly known as Prime Gaming Philippines, Inc. and changed its name to Berjaya Philippines Inc. in June 2010. Berjaya Philippines Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Makati City, the Philippines. Berjaya Philippines Inc. is a subsidiary of Berjaya Lottery Management (HK) Limited.

iPeople, inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the education, consulting development, and installation and maintenance of information technology systems in the Philippines. The company operates through two segments, Information Technology and Education, and Others. It operates Mapua Institute of Technology that offers various courses of study, including engineering and sciences, social sciences, graduate studies, engineering management, architecture and design, information technology, business and management, multimedia arts and sciences, and health science. The company also operates Malayan college located in Laguna; and Malayan high school of sciences, a science and math oriented high school located in Pandacan, Manila. In addition, its Mapua information technology center offers various training modules, such as Dot Net, CCNA voice, Cisco, custom courses, English proficiency, JAVA, office automation, and project management for high school students, career shifters, and professionals. Further, iPeople, inc. operates the Pan Pacific Computer Center that resells computer hardware and peripherals, and software licenses and packages; and provides value-added information technology (IT) services, such as server hosting, document management, and help-desk assistance. The company was formerly known as Petrofields Exploration and Development Co., Inc. and changed its name to iPeople, inc. in December 1999. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Makati, the Philippines. iPeople, inc. is a subsidiary of House of Investments, Inc.

Centro Escolar University, an institution of higher learning, provides instruction and training programs in the Philippines. The company establishes, maintains, and operates educational institutions that offer programs in the fields of arts and sciences for classes in tertiary level. It provides various college and graduation courses, including dentistry, optometry, music, and public administration in the fields of commerce, science, and arts; and 11 under graduation programs. The company also specializes in medical technology, nursing, education, nutrition, optometry, pharmacy, and business education courses. It operates in Mendiola, Malolos, Makati-Gil Puyat, and Makati-Legaspi. Centro Escolar University was founded in 1907 and is based in Manila, the Philippines.

DigiPlus Interactive Corp. provides gaming and leisure facilities. The Company offers multi-gaming platforms, numerous products, and games with a strong distribution network of entertainment facilities in neighborhood sites. DigiPlus Interactive serves customers in the Philippines.

Straco Corporation Limited develops and operates aquatic related facilities and tourism related activities.  The Group also operates cable car facilities and provides management and consulting services.

Amara Holdings Limited operates hotels and restaurants, provides food and beverage catering services as well as develops and invests in properties.  The Company owns and operates Amara Hotel and invests in shares.

WATAMI Co., Ltd. operates Japanese style pub restaurant chain, known as Watami, primarily in Tokyo and Kanagawa prefecture.  The Company also operates restaurant and American bar chain, T.G.I.Friday.  Watami Food launches new establishments from station-front to suburban area types.

Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding Co., Ltd. owns and operates the Dalian Shengya Ocean World, a submarine tunnel style aquarium, located in Dalian, Liaoning. The Company also provides related food services and operates souvenir stores.

Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding (600593 CH)

SFP Dining Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates a range of branded chain restaurants

St Marc Holdings Co Ltd manages Saint Marc Co., Ltd., a subsidiary which operates a chain of bakery restaurants, cafes, and sushi restaurants in the Okayama area.

Holiday Entertainment Co., Ltd. operates private karaoke rooms throughout Taiwan.  The Company rents rooms equipped with karaoke machines and audio systems for fees.  Holiday also serves food and drinks.

OOTOYA, Holdings Co., Ltd. operates a restaurant chain which serves Japanese set meals.  The Company operates its own restaurants based in Kanto.

SHiDAX CORPORATION, through its subsidiaries, provides food catering services and operates restaurants.  The Company's subsidiaries provide their services to companies, hospitals, and schools.

Power Wind Health Industry Inc provides amusement and other recreation activities. The Company is incorporated in Taiwan.

Shakeys Pizza Asia Ventures Inc operates Shakey's pizza chain of full-service restaurant in the Philippines 

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Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)

Shakey's Pizza: Getting Less Shaky As The Philippines Emerges From COVID

The Philippines’ largest full-service Pizza chain, Shakey’s is currently trading at PHP 7.60 per share, 7.3% below its 1st of April 2022 follow-on...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri