Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Barney’s New York will close its Shinjuku store at the end of February.</p><p>Although the iconic fashion store had hoped to close only temporarily, Seven &amp; I took the decision  to close permanently due to a variety of factors: the age of the store, the high rent in an area with falling footfall, and the declining popularity of large format stores like Barney’s Shinjuku in general.</p><p>While the store is a tiny part of Seven &amp; I's retail empire, the failure to make Barney's New York an integral part of its business is a reflection of the wider troubles at Seven &amp; I to make any part of its business work as well as Seven Eleven.</p>

Barney’s New York will close its Shinjuku store at the end of February.Although the iconic fashion store had hoped to close only temporarily, Seven &amp; I took the decision  to close permanently due to a variety of factors: the age of the store, the high rent in an area with falling footfall, and the declining popularity of large format stores like Barney’s Shinjuku in general.While the store is a tiny part of Seven &amp; I's retail empire, the failure to make Barney's New York an integral part of its business is a reflection of the wider troubles at Seven &amp; I to make any part of its business work as well as Seven Eleven.

Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

<p>Lawson and Familymart are both working on new, AI-based (or other automated ordering systems) to reduce uncertainty in demand forecasting. This is necessary not just to reduce waste, but because of increasing pressure from government to treat franchisee store owners fairly.</p>

Lawson and Familymart are both working on new, AI-based (or other automated ordering systems) to reduce uncertainty in demand forecasting. This is necessary not just to reduce waste, but because of increasing pressure from government to treat franchisee store owners fairly.

New AI Ordering Systems to Counter Criticism of Convenience Stores

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

<p>Our 2021 High Conviction call, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> delivered 3QFY21 results yesterday with operating income surpassing consensus estimate by more than 20%. The company’s 3QFY21 consolidated revenue was 1.2% below consensus. However, the YoY rate of revenue decline narrowed to 10% in 3QFY21, compared to 15.8% in 1HFY21.</p><p>More importantly, Seven &amp; I has rallied 28% from the August low of ¥3,052 per share (at the time of the Speedway acquisition) and 18% since the publication of our high conviction call.</p><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-seven-i-holdings-the-march-for-america" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction - Seven &amp; I Holdings: The March for America</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ev-op-descends-to-a-new-low-an-opportunity-to-gas-up-seven-i-on-the-back-of-speedway-acquisition" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45098" rel="noopener">EV/OP Descends to A New Low: An Opportunity to Gas Up Seven &amp; I on the Back of Speedway Acquisition</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/speedway-acquisition-buy-the-dip-as-valuation-falls-near-five-year-low" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Speedway Acquisition: Buy the Dip as Valuation Falls Near Five-Year Low</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seven-i-acquires-speedway-for-21-billion-expensive-but-necessary-acquisition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Acquires Speedway for $21 Billion: Expensive but Necessary Acquisition</a></li>
</ul>

Our 2021 High Conviction call, Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) delivered 3QFY21 results yesterday with operating income surpassing consensus estimate by more than 20%. The company’s 3QFY21 consolidated revenue was 1.2% below consensus. However, the YoY rate of revenue decline narrowed to 10% in 3QFY21, compared to 15.8% in 1HFY21.More importantly, Seven &amp; I has rallied 28% from the August low of ¥3,052 per share (at the time of the Speedway acquisition) and 18% since the publication of our high conviction call.
2021 High Conviction - Seven &amp; I Holdings: The March for America

EV/OP Descends to A New Low: An Opportunity to Gas Up Seven &amp; I on the Back of Speedway Acquisition 
Speedway Acquisition: Buy the Dip as Valuation Falls Near Five-Year Low
Seven &amp; I Acquires Speedway for $21 Billion: Expensive but Necessary Acquisition


Seven & I Holdings: OP Beats Could Continue into 4QFY21

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST LARGE CAPS •</strong></p><p>Our pick of Tuesday's best and worst large-cap announcements are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> and retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/156/original/2021-01-13_06-07-37.png?1610485671" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182156"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/161/original/2021-01-13_06-08-37.png?1610485748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182161"></figure></section> ++++Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.++++    </div>

• BEST &amp; WORST LARGE CAPS •Our pick of Tuesday's best and worst large-cap announcements are Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and retailer Seven &amp; I (3382 JP).
 ++++Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics.++++    

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​08 - Yaskawa, Seven & I

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

Seven & I has struggled to make any of its acquisitions work. Barney's NY is just one of them along with Sogo Seibu and others. Seven & I should...

Michael Causton

New AI Ordering Systems to Counter Criticism of Convenience Stores

Japan's convenience store sector not only faces saturation and labour shortages but attacks from franchisees and the FTC. To solve all these...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Seven & I Holdings: OP Beats Could Continue into 4QFY21

Our 2021 High Conviction call, Seven & I delivered 3QFY21 results yesterday with operating income surpassing consensus estimate by more than 20%....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/08 - Yaskawa, Seven & I

Our pick of Tuesday's best and worst large-cap announcements are Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and Seven & I (3382 JP). _____

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Seven & I to Close Barney’s New York Shinjuku

Seven & I has struggled to make any of its acquisitions work. Barney's NY is just one of them along with Sogo Seibu and others. Seven & I should...

Michael Causton

New AI Ordering Systems to Counter Criticism of Convenience Stores

Japan's convenience store sector not only faces saturation and labour shortages but attacks from franchisees and the FTC. To solve all these...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Seven & I Holdings: OP Beats Could Continue into 4QFY21

Our 2021 High Conviction call, Seven & I delivered 3QFY21 results yesterday with operating income surpassing consensus estimate by more than 20%....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​08 - Yaskawa, Seven & I

Our pick of Tuesday's best and worst large-cap announcements are Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and Seven & I (3382 JP). _____

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/08 - Yaskawa, Seven & I