IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> has entered a SID with TPG at A$12.70 per share, a modest -2.3% discount to the previous non-binding offer of A$13.00 per share.</li>
<li>The price cut was justified by a trading update which noted a challenging near-term macro-environment and softening in market volumes. The median peers’ share prices have also derated.</li>
<li>The offer requires shareholder, FIRB and OIO approval. At the last close and for the end of November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) has entered a SID with TPG at A$12.70 per share, a modest -2.3% discount to the previous non-binding offer of A$13.00 per share.
The price cut was justified by a trading update which noted a challenging near-term macro-environment and softening in market volumes. The median peers’ share prices have also derated.
The offer requires shareholder, FIRB and OIO approval. At the last close and for the end of November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively. 


InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$12.70

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from TPG at A$13.00 per share, a mere 2.8% above the previously rejected proposal of A$12.65 per share.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35361:1" rel="noopener">TPG Inc (TPG US)</a> has secured a five-week exclusive due diligence. The Board intend to unanimously recommend a binding proposal at no less than A$13.00 per share. </li>
<li>The Board’s capitulation for a marginal bump reflects the lack of a Plan B. While, not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. The gross spread stands at 4.6%. </li>
</ul>



Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) disclosed a revised non-binding indicative proposal from TPG at A$13.00 per share, a mere 2.8% above the previously rejected proposal of A$12.65 per share.

TPG Inc (TPG US) has secured a five-week exclusive due diligence. The Board intend to unanimously recommend a binding proposal at no less than A$13.00 per share. 
The Board’s capitulation for a marginal bump reflects the lack of a Plan B. While, not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. The gross spread stands at 4.6%. 


InvoCare (IVC AU): Board Capitulates to TPG’s Small Bump

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/pe-buyer-chases-invocare-stake-ubs-runs-raid-20230306-p5cpvl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that TPG Capital, through UBS, is seeking to acquire 14.4m or 10.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>'s outstanding shares at A$12.65, a 41.3% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>If the aftermarket raid is successful, TPG will follow the tried-and-test private equity playbook of securing a pre-bid stake before lobbing a non-binding offer at A$12.65 per share</li>
<li>TPG has timed its move to take advantage of the post-results price slump. While not a knockout offer, it is a starting point for the Board to secure better terms.</li>
</ul>



AFR reports that TPG Capital, through UBS, is seeking to acquire 14.4m or 10.00% of Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)'s outstanding shares at A$12.65, a 41.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
If the aftermarket raid is successful, TPG will follow the tried-and-test private equity playbook of securing a pre-bid stake before lobbing a non-binding offer at A$12.65 per share
TPG has timed its move to take advantage of the post-results price slump. While not a knockout offer, it is a starting point for the Board to secure better terms.


InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG Capital Makes a Move

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This presentation runs through six current short ideas presented on a Smartkarma webinar on 22nd December.</li>
<li>These are:  Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and Renewable Fuels (REGI).</li>
<li>The presentation also summarizes Two Rivers' short idea generation process.</li>
</ul>


This presentation runs through six current short ideas presented on a Smartkarma webinar on 22nd December.
These are:  Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and Renewable Fuels (REGI).
The presentation also summarizes Two Rivers' short idea generation process.


Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

<p>We are following up on Crispin Francis' analysis of the Nirvana Asia privatization offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nirvana-smells-like-team-spirit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4531">Nirvana - Smells like Team Spirit</a> with data on precedent M&amp;A transactions in the death services sector.  The data are predominately from North America, but appear to be comprehensive.  We obtained the information from the proxy statements for the privatization of Arbor Memorial Services in 2012, and Service Corporation International's (SCI: US) purchase of Stewart Enterprises.</p><p>The table below provides the…</p>

We are following up on Crispin Francis' analysis of the Nirvana Asia privatization offer Nirvana - Smells like Team Spirit with data on precedent M&amp;A transactions in the death services sector.  The data are predominately from North America, but appear to be comprehensive.  We obtained the information from the proxy statements for the privatization of Arbor Memorial Services in 2012, and Service Corporation International's (SCI: US) purchase of Stewart Enterprises.The table below provides the…

United States

Service Corporation International provides death care services worldwide.  The Company operates funeral service locations, cemeteries, and crematoria.  Service also sells prearranged funeral services in most of its service markets.

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Service Corp International (SCI US)

InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$12.70

Despite the price cut, the offer is attractive in the context of challenging trading and derating of peers. At the last close and for the end of...

Arun George

InvoCare (IVC AU): Board Capitulates to TPG’s Small Bump

The Board’s capitulation for a marginal bump reflects the lack of a Plan B. While, not a knockout bid, the offer is reasonable. At the last close,...

Arun George

InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG Capital Makes a Move

TPG is seeking a 10% pre-bid stake and will subsequently lob a non-binding offer at A$12.65. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting...

Arun George

Review of Current Short Ideas

Current short ideas presented here: Atkore (ATKR), Danaher (DHR), Service Corp International (SCI), ABM Industries (ABM), Monro (MNRO), and...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Precedent Transactions Favor the Buyers

We are following up on Crispin Francis' analysis of the Nirvana Asia privatization offer Nirvana - Smells like Team Spirit with data on precedent...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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