Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sempra's first quarter of 2024 results showcases a strong start to the year, affirming its robust financial health and diligent strategic execution across its various segments.</li><li>This report, reflecting on certain financial and strategic developments, delves into both the achievements and the areas of persistent challenge within the company, thereby providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Sempra's first quarter of 2024 results showcases a strong start to the year, affirming its robust financial health and diligent strategic execution across its various segments.This report, reflecting on certain financial and strategic developments, delves into both the achievements and the areas of persistent challenge within the company, thereby providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Sempra Energy: Initiation of Coverage - What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.</li>
<li>Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.</li>
<li>Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.</li>
</ul>


An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.
Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.
Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.


[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penn-national-gaming-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5588:1" rel="noopener">Penn National Gaming (PENN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generac-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16223:1" rel="noopener">Generac Holdings (GNRC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a>. To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowserve-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20555:1" rel="noopener">Flowserve Corp (FLS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-green-realty-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1548:1" rel="noopener">Sl Green Realty (SLG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xerox-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17585:1" rel="noopener">Xerox Corp (XRX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vontier-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28857:1" rel="noopener">Vontier Corp (VNT US)</a>.We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a> where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), Penn National Gaming (PENN US), Generac Holdings (GNRC US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US). To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - Flowserve Corp (FLS US), Sl Green Realty (SLG US), Xerox Corp (XRX US) and Vontier Corp (VNT US).We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/u-s-elections-and-esg-impacts-on-people-planet-and-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42655" rel="noopener">U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit</a>, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.
This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.
Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):
<ul>
<li>Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes</li>
<li>High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight</li>
</ul>

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.
This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.
Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):

Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes
High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight


U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The volume of projects that have taken final investment decision this year has already exceeded most consultants forecasts from the beginning of 2019 and we are not done yet. AKap Energy remains confident that &gt;100 million tons per annum (mtpa) worth of new projects will go ahead in 2019. To put this in context 2018 global supply was ~320mtpa. So far this year &gt;60mtpa of new projects have been sanctioned with associated capex of &gt;US$50bn. Most recently the 20mpta Arctic LNG 2 project was sanctioned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-pjsc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24004:1">Novatek PJSC (NVTK LI)</a> and in the US the 10mpta Calcasieu Pass project completed financing. We think it is highly likely that further projects get fully sanctioned by year-end, most notably Qatar's 32mtpa project and a 2nd mega project in Mozambique (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/economic-analysis-of-mozambique-s-lng-projects-huge-potential-but-financing-risks-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29208">Economic Analysis of Mozambique’s LNG Projects: Huge Potential but Financing Risks Remain</a>).

The volume of projects that have taken final investment decision this year has already exceeded most consultants forecasts from the beginning of 2019 and we are not done yet. AKap Energy remains confident that &gt;100 million tons per annum (mtpa) worth of new projects will go ahead in 2019. To put this in context 2018 global supply was ~320mtpa. So far this year &gt;60mtpa of new projects have been sanctioned with associated capex of &gt;US$50bn. Most recently the 20mpta Arctic LNG 2 project was sanctioned by Novatek PJSC (NVTK LI) and in the US the 10mpta Calcasieu Pass project completed financing. We think it is highly likely that further projects get fully sanctioned by year-end, most notably Qatar's 32mtpa project and a 2nd mega project in Mozambique (see Economic Analysis of Mozambique’s LNG Projects: Huge Potential but Financing Risks Remain).

LNG Projects Update: >60mtpa Sanctioned and Likely to Far Exceed 100mtpa of FIDs in 2019

United States

Consolidated Edison, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a variety of energy related products and services. The Company supplies electric service in New York, parts of New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as well as supplies electricity to wholesale customers.

Dominion Energy, Inc. produces and transports energy products. The Company offers natural gas and electric energy transmission, gathering, and storage solutions. Dominion Energy serves customers in the United States.

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated is a public utility holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity and produces natural gas in the Northeastern and Mid Atlantic United States.

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG US)

DTE Energy Company, a diversified energy company, develops and manages energy-related businesses and services nationwide.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy in southeastern Michigan. DTE is also involved in gas pipelines and storage, unconventional gas exploration, development, and production.

Ameren Corporation is a public utility holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates electricity, delivers electricity and distributes natural gas to customers in Missouri and Illinois.

CenterPoint Energy, Inc. is a public utility holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, conducts activities in electricity transmission and distribution, natural gas distribution and sales, interstate pipeline and gathering operations, and power generation.

WEC Energy Group, Inc. operates as a utilities provider. The Company distributes electricity and natural gas to its customers in Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota.

CMS Energy Corporation is an energy company operating primarily in Michigan. The Company, through its subsidiaries provides electricity and/or natural gas to its customers in Michigan. CMS Energy also invests in and operates non-utility power generation plants in the United States and abroad.

NiSource Inc. is an energy holding company. The Company's subsidiaries provide natural gas, electricity and other products and services to customers located within a corridor that runs from the Gulf Coast through the Midwest to New England.

MDU Resources Group, Inc. provides various commercial services. The Company offers distribution of electricity, natural gas, and construction materials, as well as construction services. MDU Resources Group serves customers in the United States.

Engie offers a full range of electricity, gas and associated energy and environment services throughout the world. The Company produces, trades, transports, stores and distributes natural gas, and offers energy management and climatic and thermal engineering services.

E.ON is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks and energy infrastructure and a provider of innovative customer solutions for some 51 million customers. The company's operations are energy networks and customer solutions.

National Grid plc is an investor-owned utility company which is focused on the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. The Company owns and operates the electricity transmission network in England and Wales, the gas transmission network in Great Britain, and electricity transmission networks in the Northeastern United States and Scotland.

Engie SA offers a full range of electricity, gas and associated energy and environment services throughout the world. The Company produces, trades, transports, stores, and distributes natural gas, and offers energy management and climatic and thermal engineering services.

Veolia Environnement SA operates utility and public transportation businesses. The Company supplies drinking water, provides waste management services, manages and maintains heating and air conditioning systems, and operates rail and road passenger transportation systems.

Centrica PLC is an integrated energy company offering a wide range of home and business energy solutions. The Company sources, generates, processes, stores, trades, saves and supplies energy and provides a range of related services.

YTL Power International Berhad is an investment holding company which provides administrative and technical support services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company develops, constructs, maintains, and operates power stations which includes Paka Power Station in Terengganu and Pasir Gudang Power Station in Johor.

YTL Corporation Berhad is an investment holding and management company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates an integrated infrastructure development which includes construction work on contractual basis, property development, power generation, and hotel development and management. YTL Corporation also manufactures industrial products and supplies.

A2A S.p.A. is an Italian utility company.  The Company is active in electricity (production, distribution, trading and sales), gas (supply, distribution, trading and sales), district heating, waste (collection, treatment and disposal), integrated water cycle, public lighting and other activities. A2A S.p.A  has a strong presence in the North of Italy.

Sempra Energy is an energy services holding company with operations throughout the United States, Mexico, and other countries in South America.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates electricity, delivers natural gas, operates natural gas pipelines and storage facilities, and operates a wind power generation project.

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Sempra Energy (SRE US)

Sempra Energy: Initiation of Coverage - What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Sempra's first quarter of 2024 results showcases a strong start to the year, affirming its robust financial health and diligent strategic...

Baptista Research

[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Inventory build-up in the US points to signs of weaker-than-expected summer demand, Nat-gas prices hit by rising output. Uptrend in oil & gas...

Mint Finance

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

There are 4 changes to the S&P500 with NXP Semiconductors the largest beneficiary of the changes. Estimated one-way turnover is US$22.4bn and there...

Brian Freitas

U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections...

Kyle Rudden

LNG Projects Update: >60mtpa Sanctioned and Likely to Far Exceed 100mtpa of FIDs in 2019

The volume of projects that have taken final investment decision this year has already exceeded most consultants forecasts from the beginning of...

Anish Kapadia

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