ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a>, and UNOAsia in the Philippines. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past week saw insights on GoTo, Grab Holdings (GRAB US),Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Matahari Department Store, BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).
There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB), and UNOAsia in the Philippines. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement (INTP IJ)</a> is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. </li>
<li>The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement (INTP IJ)</a> continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.</li>
</ul>



Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024. 
The company continues to grow its distribution reach to satisfy demand from IKN in Kalimantan, smelters in Sulawesi, and East Indonesia, with acquired Semen Grobogan feeding Central Java. 

Indocement (INTP IJ) continues to build on its sustainable credentials through the use of alternative fuels and reducing emissions and dust. Valauations are attractive trading on 6.8x FY2024E EV/EBITDA.


Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) - A More Sustainable Cement Player

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement</a> overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. </li>
<li>The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. </li>
<li>There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.</li>
</ul>



Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. 
The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. 
There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> released solid FY2022 results despite inclement conditions for the industry, as it utilised more low CV coal and alternative fuels and raised prices.</li>
<li>The company now has much better access to cheaper DMO coal, which accounted for 60% of requirements in 2H2022, which provides a lower and more sustainable cost base for 2023.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement</a> has continued to aggressively expand its distribution footprint across Indonesia in 2022, allowing it to access regional areas of demand. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) released solid FY2022 results despite inclement conditions for the industry, as it utilised more low CV coal and alternative fuels and raised prices.
The company now has much better access to cheaper DMO coal, which accounted for 60% of requirements in 2H2022, which provides a lower and more sustainable cost base for 2023.

Indocement has continued to aggressively expand its distribution footprint across Indonesia in 2022, allowing it to access regional areas of demand. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) - Building Through Sustainable and Digital Means

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement Tunggal (INTP IJ) - A More Sustainable Cement Player

Indocement (INTP IJ) is trading close to 2-year lows, which seems unjustified given the ongoing recovery and a more positive outlook for FY2024.

Angus Mackintosh

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Indocement (INTP IJ) - A Bulky Take Off

Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market. 2H2023 is expected to...

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) - Building Through Sustainable and Digital Means

Indocement released solid 2022 results despite inclement conditions for the industry, as it utilised more low CV coal, DMO coal and alternative...

Angus Mackintosh

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