Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. </span></li></ul>

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. 

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

<ul><li>We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.</li><li>The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.</li><li>We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.</li></ul>

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

<ul><li>Our bet on the US consumer is off to a flying start.</li><li>We have generally assumed that we can write off much of the weakness in May data due to severe weather incidents, which reached a 13-year high in May.</li><li>The weather has been much more benign in June, and we will likely see the first signs of this next week in the non-farm payroll report.</li></ul>

Our bet on the US consumer is off to a flying start.We have generally assumed that we can write off much of the weakness in May data due to severe weather incidents, which reached a 13-year high in May.The weather has been much more benign in June, and we will likely see the first signs of this next week in the non-farm payroll report.

Portfolio Watch: Don’t underestimate the US consumer

<ul><li>If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle.</li><li>Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of change that really drives asset markets.</li><li>This analysis is chock-full of rate of change charts, just to remind you that we’ve only managed to nudge inflation back to just above target levels—right as the cycle’s rate of change is shifting towards re-acceleration in many places.</li></ul>

If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle.Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of change that really drives asset markets.This analysis is chock-full of rate of change charts, just to remind you that we’ve only managed to nudge inflation back to just above target levels—right as the cycle’s rate of change is shifting towards re-acceleration in many places.

Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden

Sweden

The Swedish krona is the official currency of Sweden

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Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year. I have had numerous...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.

We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Don’t underestimate the US consumer

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we walk you through the most relevant trading topics for our portfolio and yours. Our bet on the US...

Steno Research

Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden

If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle. Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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