External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Riksbank lowered the policy rate by 25bp to 2.50% as widely expected.</li><li>According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025”.</li><li>First impression: Hawkish Policy rate: Cut to 2.50% Rate path: The rate path indicates a possibility of one more rate cut next year. The end-point at 2.25% in Q4 2027 (previous 2.25% in Q3 2027)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Riksbank lowered the policy rate by 25bp to 2.50% as widely expected.According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025”.First impression: Hawkish Policy rate: Cut to 2.50% Rate path: The rate path indicates a possibility of one more rate cut next year. The end-point at 2.25% in Q4 2027 (previous 2.25% in Q3 2027)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>November has been a good month for the NOK, which has strengthened 2,5 percent against EUR and 2 percent against SEK.</li><li>However, we now believe that the NOK appreciation is over in the short term, and we see a risk of a somewhat weaker NOK in the coming month.So why has NOK been so strong through November?</li><li>It is probably a combination of several factors.1) The cumulative total return of a buy-and-hold carry trade position has increased through October and November, due to the increasing interest rate differential between high and low interest rate countries.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

November has been a good month for the NOK, which has strengthened 2,5 percent against EUR and 2 percent against SEK.However, we now believe that the NOK appreciation is over in the short term, and we see a risk of a somewhat weaker NOK in the coming month.So why has NOK been so strong through November?It is probably a combination of several factors.1) The cumulative total return of a buy-and-hold carry trade position has increased through October and November, due to the increasing interest rate differential between high and low interest rate countries.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NOK Update: We see a risk of a somewhat weaker NOK in the coming month

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>In this brief update on the business cycle, we will present a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation in Sweden.</li><li>The Riksbank initiated its first rate cut in May, and we anticipate additional cuts throughout the autumn.</li><li>This makes Sweden an ideal “live-studio” for observing the effects of early rate cuts on the economic cycle.</li></ul>

In this brief update on the business cycle, we will present a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation in Sweden.The Riksbank initiated its first rate cut in May, and we anticipate additional cuts throughout the autumn.This makes Sweden an ideal “live-studio” for observing the effects of early rate cuts on the economic cycle.

Business Cycle Watch: Why Sweden’s Resurging Momentum is a Must Watch

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.</li><li>The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.</li><li>Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. </li></ul>

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year.The important part of the analysis is to understand why liquidity is moving, not just if it is moving.Depending on the type of liquidity additions/withdrawals, the quality of the liquidity signal improves/worsens as a driver of asset markets. 

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

Sweden

The Swedish krona is the official currency of Sweden

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Riksbank flash-comment: Hawkish cut

According to the bank, “if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, the policy rate may be cut once again during the...

Nordea

NOK Update: We see a risk of a somewhat weaker NOK in the coming month

November has been a good month for the NOK, which has strengthened 2,5 percent against EUR and 2 percent against SEK. However, we now believe that...

Nordea

Business Cycle Watch: Why Sweden’s Resurging Momentum is a Must Watch

In this brief update on the business cycle, we will present a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation in Sweden. The Riksbank...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Liquidity watch: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality

While we are waiting for Godot and US inflation, we have examined the liquidity outlook for the remainder of the year. I have had numerous...

Steno Research

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