Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.</li>
<li>NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. </li>
<li>The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.
NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. 
The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shift-up-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:144015" rel="noopener">Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case. 
We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.    </li>
<li>Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.    
Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as Tencent (700 HK) and Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.


Japan

SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company established through the merger of Sega and Sammy.  The Group mainly develops and manufactures commercial-use video game machine, home-use video game software, and pachinko pinball machine. Sega Sammy Holdings also operates amusement parks.

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Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 JP)

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Nexon's founder Kim Jung-ju has passed away. This raises the question of the disposition of the 47+% stake belonging to his holding company NXC. If...

Travis Lundy

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would...

Arun George

Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

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