Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.


S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a>, a leading professional recruiting and temporary staffing service in Japan, seeks to raise US$450 million. Pricing is on 5 July, and book-building is 6-11 July. </li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tryt-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105670" rel="noopener">TRYT IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on mid-tier revenue growth rates, margin pressure led by rising labour expenses, bottom-tier FCF margin and high leverage.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP), a leading professional recruiting and temporary staffing service in Japan, seeks to raise US$450 million. Pricing is on 5 July, and book-building is 6-11 July. 
In TRYT IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on mid-tier revenue growth rates, margin pressure led by rising labour expenses, bottom-tier FCF margin and high leverage.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a>, a leading professional recruiting and temporary staffing service in Japan, seeks to raise US$450 million. Pricing is on 5 July, and book-building is 6-11 July.   </li>
<li>In 2022, Tyrt was the leading provider of personnel dispatch and personnel introduction services in Japan's welfare and nursing sector.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, favourable market trends, strong pro-forma revenue growth, top quartile EBITDA margins and rising staff retention rates.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP), a leading professional recruiting and temporary staffing service in Japan, seeks to raise US$450 million. Pricing is on 5 July, and book-building is 6-11 July.   
In 2022, Tyrt was the leading provider of personnel dispatch and personnel introduction services in Japan's welfare and nursing sector.
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, favourable market trends, strong pro-forma revenue growth, top quartile EBITDA margins and rising staff retention rates.


<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends tomorrow and we expect two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Impact of passive trading on the stocks varies between 4.3-11 days of ADV. Short interest on the potential adds is small while there are significant shorts on the potential deletes.</li>
<li>We expect there is pre-positioning on at least three of the four stocks. In some cases that is small, while it could be a lot larger in other stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends tomorrow and we expect two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
Impact of passive trading on the stocks varies between 4.3-11 days of ADV. Short interest on the potential adds is small while there are significant shorts on the potential deletes.
We expect there is pre-positioning on at least three of the four stocks. In some cases that is small, while it could be a lot larger in other stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ventia-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34917:1" rel="noopener">Ventia (VNT AU)</a> has appeared as a "surprise" potential addition to the ASX 200 index in June 2023 after recent block sales by top shareholders.</li>
<li>Including Ventia, we currently expect two ADDs and two DELs for the ASX 200 index in June 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.

Ventia (VNT AU) has appeared as a "surprise" potential addition to the ASX 200 index in June 2023 after recent block sales by top shareholders.
Including Ventia, we currently expect two ADDs and two DELs for the ASX 200 index in June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: Two ASX 200 Changes Likely, Including Ventia Surprise

Australia

Seek Limited operates an Internet website.  The Company offers online employment advertisements and online training in Australia and New Zealand, and offers online employment advertisements in the United Kingdom targeted at Australian and New Zealand job seekers.

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Seek Ltd (SEK AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

TRYT IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on mid-tier revenue growth rates, margin pressure led by rising labour expenses, bottom-tier FCF margin and...

Arun George

TRYT IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, favourable market trends, strong pro-forma revenue growth, top quartile EBITDA...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There could be 2 changes for the ASX200 in June. Impact is high on most stocks. Shorts are small on the adds & very high on the deletes. There...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: Two ASX 200 Changes Likely, Including Ventia Surprise

I would be LONG Ventia - SHORT Monadelphous & WorleyParsons because Ventia's ASX 200 inclusion could surprise some investors and I believe there is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

TRYT IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on mid-tier revenue growth rates, margin pressure led by rising labour expenses, bottom-tier FCF margin and...

Arun George

TRYT IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, favourable market trends, strong pro-forma revenue growth, top quartile EBITDA...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There could be 2 changes for the ASX200 in June. Impact is high on most stocks. Shorts are small on the adds & very high on the deletes. There...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 23: Two ASX 200 Changes Likely, Including Ventia Surprise

I would be LONG Ventia - SHORT Monadelphous & WorleyParsons because Ventia's ASX 200 inclusion could surprise some investors and I believe there is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning