Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Highlights:&nbsp;Domestic risks rising in the Philippines<ul><li>The strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets, as seen by the sharp contractions in both Europe and Asia's remittances growth rates. Given that remittances are pivotal to consumption in the Philippines, this deceleration could mean softer consumer spending.</li><li>President Aquino&rsquo;s loss of popularity, which could make him a lameduck president, could also impact the impending 2016 elections as candidates aligned to Aquino and his party could be undermined by such negative sentiments.</li><li>However, in the medium and longer term, we still see the Philippines outperforming its peers, due to a confluence of positives including favourable demographics, stable macroeconomic framework and stronger corporate governance in the country.</li></ul>Fed policy: markets may well be disappointed<ul><li>While the latest statements from the Federal Reserve Bank of the US signalled a more cautious approach to monetary normalisation than financial markets feared, we believe that the underlying US economy is robust and likely to accelerate in coming quarters to the point where monetary tightening will take place at a faster pace than markets now expect.</li></ul>

Highlights:&nbsp;Domestic risks rising in the PhilippinesThe strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets, as seen by the sharp contractions in both Europe and Asia's remittances growth rates. Given that remittances are pivotal to consumption in the Philippines, this deceleration could mean softer consumer spending.President Aquino&rsquo;s loss of popularity, which could make him a lameduck president, could also impact the impending 2016 elections as candidates aligned to Aquino and his party could be undermined by such negative sentiments.However, in the medium and longer term, we still see the Philippines outperforming its peers, due to a confluence of positives including favourable demographics, stable macroeconomic framework and stronger corporate governance in the country.Fed policy: markets may well be disappointedWhile the latest statements from the Federal Reserve Bank of the US signalled a more cautious approach to monetary normalisation than financial markets feared, we believe that the underlying US economy is robust and likely to accelerate in coming quarters to the point where monetary tightening will take place at a faster pace than markets now expect.

Domestic risks rising in the Philippines. Is the Fed really deferring monetary normalization? 

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. &nbsp;Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than peers in Philippines. This will not last as credit costs narrow, costs come in, and fee income improves.&nbsp;

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. &nbsp;Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than peers in Philippines. This will not last as credit costs narrow, costs come in, and fee income improves.&nbsp;

PNB is over looked by most, but better capitalized, and with turnaround features

<ul><li>A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; </li><li>Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; </li><li>If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; </li></ul>

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ &nbsp;combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank stocks in particular. The way this usually plays out is first with liquidity.&nbsp; Banks pull credit lines from weaker banks (and weaker companies).&nbsp; If a bank has a loan to deposit ratio (LDR) above 100%, it is often difficult to repay the redeemed credit line, as it means disposing of an asset, a loan – immediately. &nbsp; 

Philippines

Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation provides banking and financial products and services in the Philippines and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury, and Others segments. The company�s deposit products include checking and savings accounts, time deposits, foreign currency deposits, and cash cards. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial and consumer loans; and wholesale lending, rediscounting, and guaranty facilities. The company also provides remittance, payment and settlement, treasury, trust, overdraft facilities, money market, and trading services. In addition, it offers corporate cash management services, such as collection and receivables services; disbursements; government payment services; and third party services comprising collection and receivables services, and payment management services. Further, the company provides investment banking services, such as the underwriting of debt and equity securities for distribution through public offering or private placement; syndicated loans, joint ventures, and project finance; financial advisory and consultancy services; and mergers and acquisitions services. Additionally, it offers ancillary services, including day and night depository, deposit pick-up and delivery, foreign currency conversions, foreign trade information, economic and investment research, wealth management, and safety deposit boxes; automated teller machines; bills payment machines; and mobile, Internet, phone banking, and e-Shop services. As of December 31, 2014, the company operated a network of 449 business centers, including 35 extension offices; and 1,202 ATMs. The company was formerly known as Rizal Development Bank and changed its name to Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation in January 1963. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Makati City, the Philippines. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Yuchengco Group of Companies.

Philippine National Bank, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial bank services. Its products include deposit-taking, lending, bill discounting, foreign exchange dealing, investment banking, and fund transfer. The Company also offers merchant banking, remittance servicing, non-life insurance, leasing, stock brokerage, foreign exchange trading, and related services.

Asia United Bank Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and other financial products and services to consumers, small medium enterprises, and large corporations in the Philippines. The company operates through Commercial, Consumer, Treasury, Branch Banking, and Others segments. It provides commercial banking services, such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, domestic and foreign fund transfers, treasury, foreign exchange, and trust services. Its deposit products include savings, current, time, and other currency deposit accounts; and loan portfolio comprises auto, home, salary, and commercial loans, as well as real estate and pension loans. The company also provides cash management services; investment products, including treasury and trust products; and other services consisting of card, remittance, property sale, and leasing services. As of June 30, 2016, the company operated 232 branches. Asia United Bank Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Pasig, the Philippines.

East West Banking Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a commercial bank providing a range of financial services to consumer and corporate clients in the Philippines. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, Consumer Banking, and Treasury and Trust segments. The company offers personal banking services, such as checking and savings accounts, time deposit, bills payment, check-writing, and prepaid and gift cards; credit cards; auto, home, pre owned properties and cars, personal, and business loans; Internet banking; personal investment services, including money market and fixed-income unit investment trust funds, and fixed-income investment trust funds; and suite of corporate services comprising payroll, disbursement, collection, and others services. It also provides trade finance; treasury products, such as fixed income securities and foreign exchange products; and fund and investment management, custodianship, administration and collateral agency services, and stock and transfer agency services. As of As of December 31, 2014, it served its customers through a network of 358 branches and 533 ATMs. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Taguig City, the Philippines.

Philippine Bank of Communications provides commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. The company operates through Branch Banking Group, Corporate Banking Group, Treasury, Consumer Finance, and Trust and Wealth Management segments. It offers deposit products and services, including savings, checking, and time deposit accounts; and loans comprising commercial loans, industrial loans, foreign currency loans, rediscounting loans, specialized lending programs, export packing credit loans, trust receipt financing, consumer lending, and guarantee programs, as well as auto, home, personal, and SME loans. The company also provides investment and wealth management products, such as trust products; treasury products; and other services, including safe deposit boxes, manager's checks, and gift checks. In addition, it offers cash management solutions, such as check writing and check warehousing facilities, deposit pick-up services, payroll services, SSS Net, tax link or BIR electronic filing and payment systems, Bancnet bills payment, and other payment and collection services; and staff provident fund and retirement/pension fund services. Further, the company provides trade-related services, such as commercial letters of credit, stand-by letters of credit, bank guaranty, trust receipts, export packing credit/export bills purchase, clean and documentary collections, import bills/customer�s liabilities under acceptances, and trade receivables and payables financing. It offers its products and services through 82 branches and 11 other banking offices. Philippine Bank of Communications was incorporated in 1939 and is based in Makati, the Philippines.

Philippine Business Bank, Inc., a savings bank, provides various banking and financial services in the Philippines. It operates through Consumer Banking, Corporate Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The company offers deposits and investment services, including savings and checking accounts, automatic transfer accounts, payroll accounts, CASA, campus savers, time deposits, hi-green funds, Hi-5 TDs, and FCDU savings and time deposits. It also provides commercial, industrial, and developmental loans comprising bills purchase, term loans, omnibus line, discounting line, trade finance, agricultural loans, bus loans, and floor stock/inventory financing products, as well as specialized lending facilities for small and medium enterprises. In addition, the company offers consumer loans consisting of auto loans, salary loans, housing loans, and personal loans. Further, it provides trust products and services, including diamond funds; living trusts; employee benefit plans under trust; trustee of pre-need plans; escrow agency; mortgage trusts; investment management arrangements for both individual and commercial clients; security, safekeeping, and depository arrangements; and funds management of employee benefit and pre-need plans. Additionally, the company offers cash management services, remittance services, local payment orders, foreign drafts, safety deposit box facilities, night depository boxes, group payroll services, bills payment/collection services, and SSSPayments/PhilHealth products. As of February 5, 2015, it had approximately 116 branches in the Philippines. Philippine Business Bank, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Caloocan, the Philippines.

China Banking Corporation is a commercial bank. The Bank provides products and services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, treasury products, trust products, corporate finance and other investment banking services.

Philtrust Bank provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. The company offers checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, money market placements, business loans, transfer of funds and collections, remittances, securities investments, and safety deposit boxes. It also provides commercial letters of credit, collections and remittances, foreign exchange services, traveler�s checks, and foreign currency deposit unit transactions. In addition, the company offers trust services, such as trust placement, investment management, estate administration/trustee of bond issues, savings and pension plan administration, and insurance trust services, as well as acts as escrow agent, and stock registrar and transfer agent. It operates a network of approximately 57 branches and 57 automated teller machines. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Manila, the Philippines.

UnionBank of the Philippines, together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking products and services in the Philippines. It operates through Consumer Banking, Corporate and Commercial Banking, and Treasury segments. The company offers various personal banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, and time deposits; auto loans; debit and credit cards; trust and investment products; remittance products and services; and mobile banking services, as well as foreclosed properties and vehicles. It also provides corporate and small and medium scale enterprise products and services that consist of cash management services; various small business products and services; and treasury products. In addition, the company offers corporate and commercial banking loans; salary and mortgage loans; consumer finance products; pre-need insurance products and services; funds transfer facilities; retail and trust banking products and services; and capital markets products, as well as handles transactions in the financial markets covering foreign exchange and fixed income trading, and investments and derivatives products. Further, it provides insurance, securities, and foreign currency brokerage services; data processing services; venture capital products; financial products marketing services; and real estate administration services, as well as acts as a thrift banker. The company serves retail, middle market, corporate, and institutional customers, as well as small and medium enterprises and government institutions. As of December 31, 2014, it had 253 branches; and 243 on-site and 39 off-site automated teller machines. The company was formerly known as Union Savings and Mortgage Bank and changed its name to UnionBank of the Philippines in January 1982. UnionBank of the Philippines was founded in 1968 and is based in Pasig City, the Philippines.

Philippine Savings Bank engages in savings and mortgage banking activities in the Philippines. It operates in Consumer Banking, Corporate Banking, Branch Banking, and Treasury segments. The company provides various deposit products, such as savers accounts, automated teller machine (ATM) savings, regular passbook savings, passbook savings with ATM, overseas Filipino savings, regular checking and premium checking accounts, peso time deposits, prime time deposits, U.S. dollar savings, U.S. dollar time deposits, and Euro savings and time deposits. It also offers consumer loan products, including auto loans, flexi personal loans, home loans, home credit lines, and home construction loans; and commercial loans, such as small and medium enterprise (SME) business credit lines, credit lines, SME term loans, standby credit line certification, and domestic bills purchase lines. In addition, the company provides trust services, which consist of money market funds, investment management accounts, escrow accounts, living trust accounts, and employee benefit/retirement fund management; credit and debit MasterCards; prepaid MasterCard; e-credit facilities; bills payment collection; remittance services; bancassurance products and services; and fund transfer services, overnight depository boxes, payroll services, safety deposit facilities, and SSS pensioner�s remittance programs. As of December 31, 2014, it had a network of 245 branches and 595 ATMs. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is based in Makati City, the Philippines. Philippine Savings Bank is a subsidiary of Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company.

Shengjing Bank Co. Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers various financial services, funds business, international business, and investment services for individuals and small and medium enterprises.

Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including commercial, developmental, consumer, hire-purchase, and mortgage financing to its customers in Thailand. The Company also provides securities brokerage and investment advisory services.

Habib Bank Ltd operates commercial bank in Pakistan. The Bank offers commercial, corporate, Investment, retail and International Group Banking.

Dah Sing Financial Holdings Ltd through its subsidiaries, offers general banking services. The Company also invests in properties and provides insurance broking and nominee services.

First Community Bancshares, Inc. is the holding company for First Community Bank, N.A.  The Bank generates revenue primarily through commercial, real estate, and consumer lending within its respective market area. The Company also operates investment management and mortgage banking companies.  First Community Bancshares operates in West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Univest Corporation of Pennsylvania is the parent company of Univest National Bank and Trust Co., Univest Insurance, Inc., and Univest Investments, Inc.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking, investments, and insurance services.  Univest has offices throughout Bucks and Montgomery Counties.

Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. provides banking services. The Bank offers commercial and consumer banking and limited trust services, including accepting deposits and originating various loans. Dime Community Bancshares operates in the State of New York.

Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group, Inc. operates banks. The Company mainly offers financial services. Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group provides services in Japan.

Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group (7173 JP)

Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Lakeland Bank.  The Bank is a full-service commercial bank offering a range of consumer, commercial, trust services, and equipment leasing.  Lakeland Bank operates in northwestern New Jersey.

Brookline Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Brookline Bank. The Bank is a full-service financial institution providing  individuals and small to mid-sized businesses with personal deposit and lending services, residential mortgages and home equity credit, C & I lending, commercial real estate lending, cash management, payroll and merchant services, and access to investment services.

Security Bank Corporation offers a wide variety of financial products and services. The Bank's services include peso, dollar and third currency deposits, domestic and international fund transfers, deposit pick-up and payroll services, and ancillary services.  Security Bank also provides working capital financing, term arrangements, loan syndication services.

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Security Bank (SECB PM)

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

Domestic risks rising in the Philippines. Is the Fed really deferring monetary normalization?

Highlights: Domestic risks rising in the Philippines The strength of the US Dollar has hit the growth of remittances from non-USD labour markets,...

Manu Bhaskaran

PNB is over looked by most, but better capitalized, and with turnaround features

PNB has seen its NPLs collapse. Its capital is higher than domestic peers - and most in Asia. Yet it's market capitalization is 50-75% lower than...

Daniel Tabbush

Be Wary of High LDR Banks at Present

A likely Russian credit and currency crisis, the weakening Euro and ineptitude of BoJ combine to create a world of worry in markets and bank...

Daniel Tabbush

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