External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Securitas is a global security provider with a market cap of $5.3bn US, offering specialized guarding, mobile services, monitoring, and investigative services to a diverse customer base.</li><li>The company serves industries such as governments, airports, banks, shopping centers, and high-tech firms, with a customer base concentrated in North America and Europe.</li><li>In 2022, Securitas acquired Stanley for $3.2bn, a leading electronic security firm, to expand its security solutions and electronic security capabilities, ultimately increasing margins and market share.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Securitas is a global security provider with a market cap of $5.3bn US, offering specialized guarding, mobile services, monitoring, and investigative services to a diverse customer base.The company serves industries such as governments, airports, banks, shopping centers, and high-tech firms, with a customer base concentrated in North America and Europe.In 2022, Securitas acquired Stanley for $3.2bn, a leading electronic security firm, to expand its security solutions and electronic security capabilities, ultimately increasing margins and market share.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Securitas Ab (SECUB SS) - Wednesday, Feb 7, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

The contest for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g4s-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21948:1" rel="noopener">G4S PLC (GFS LN)</a> will be settled by an unfrequent head-to-head auction if neither GardaWorld or Allied Universal has sent a revised (read knockout) offer before 5.00pm on Saturday 20 February and prevailed by then.
<ul>
<li>
The procedure provides for up to five days of public bidding over sequential business days, with February 22 set as the first day of the auction.
</li>
</ul>
The Telegraph reported that the City expected GardaWorld to return well above Allied Universal’s offer.
<ul>
<li>G4S is a scarce asset.</li>
<li>It is the world’s largest security company, with £7 bn annual turnover and 530,000 employees worldwide.</li>
<li>G4S is trading at higher multiples than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/securitas-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22476:1" rel="noopener">Securitas AB (SECUB SS)</a>.</li>
</ul>
For either bidder, it would be a transformational deal, with some economies of scale and, above all, long-term contracts and relationships:
<ul>
<li>Allied Universal, California based, has annual revenues of about £6 bn and 250,000 employees.</li>
<li>GardaWorld, backed by BC Partners, has annual revenues of about £2 bn and 100,000 employees.</li>
</ul>
Revised bids could come in the region of 282p, valuing the equity of G4S at c. £4,361 mn. Bids could go even higher.
<ul>
<li>G4S shares are trading at 269p, as investors bet that improved offers are coming.</li>
<li>The gross spread to a 282p hypothetical revised offer is 4.6%.</li>
<li>
HOLD your breath if you've already got the trade on, go LONG if not, although the latter involves both second guessing the bidders and a maximum downside of c. 9% (using 269p vs. Allied's last offer).</li>
</ul>

The contest for G4S PLC (GFS LN) will be settled by an unfrequent head-to-head auction if neither GardaWorld or Allied Universal has sent a revised (read knockout) offer before 5.00pm on Saturday 20 February and prevailed by then.


The procedure provides for up to five days of public bidding over sequential business days, with February 22 set as the first day of the auction.


The Telegraph reported that the City expected GardaWorld to return well above Allied Universal’s offer.

G4S is a scarce asset.
It is the world’s largest security company, with £7 bn annual turnover and 530,000 employees worldwide.
G4S is trading at higher multiples than Securitas AB (SECUB SS).

For either bidder, it would be a transformational deal, with some economies of scale and, above all, long-term contracts and relationships:

Allied Universal, California based, has annual revenues of about £6 bn and 250,000 employees.
GardaWorld, backed by BC Partners, has annual revenues of about £2 bn and 100,000 employees.

Revised bids could come in the region of 282p, valuing the equity of G4S at c. £4,361 mn. Bids could go even higher.

G4S shares are trading at 269p, as investors bet that improved offers are coming.
The gross spread to a 282p hypothetical revised offer is 4.6%.

HOLD your breath if you've already got the trade on, go LONG if not, although the latter involves both second guessing the bidders and a maximum downside of c. 9% (using 269p vs. Allied's last offer).


Sweden

Bravida Holding AB provides technical installation and service solutions for buildings and plants. The Company offers integrated solutions in electrical installations, heating and plumbing, and HVAC. Bravida Holding serves customers in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark.

Intrum AB provides credit management services and solutions. The Company offers commercial and consumer debt collection, debt surveillance, international debt collection, purchased debt services, sales ledger administration, and optimization services.

SWECO AB operates as an architecture and engineering consultancy company. The Company's services includes urban planning, feasibility studies, environmental projects, structural engineering, water treatment, and flood protection solutions. SWECO offers its services to companies and organizations worldwide.

AddTech AB offers high-tech industrial components and systems.  The Company creates customer specific solutions within the areas Equipment, Transmission, and Components.  AddTech works in close cooperation with both customers and suppliers.  The Company's largest customer segments are the engineering, telecommunications, automotive, and electronic industries in the Nordic area.

Beijer Ref AB, through subsidiaries, manufactures cooling and heating systems, and is a supplier of raw materials, industrial equipment, tools, and parts.  The Company's product range includes rubber and plastic products, packing materials, as well as air conditioning and refrigeration systems.  Beijer operates and sells its products to large industrial companies in northern Europe.

Skanska AB offers construction related and project development services. The Company focuses on construction of housing, commercial buildings, roads, and railways, as well as develops and carries out civil engineering projects. Skanska is also a provider of facilities management services and provides all services internationally.

SKF AB develops, produces, and markets products, solutions, and services in the rolling bearing and seal business.  The Company's product line includes ball and roller bearings, specialty bearings, sealing systems, linear motion products, tools for mounting and dismounting bearings, and measuring and monitoring instruments.  SKF markets to industrial companies worldwide.

Trelleborg AB manufactures and distributes industrial products.  The Company produces noise supression and anti-vibration systems for the automobile industry and complete wheel systems for forest and farm machines and other equipment. Trelleborg also develops and makes industrial fluid systems and polymer and bitumen based building products.  The Company markets worldwide.

Lindab International AB develops, manufactures and markets sheet metal products and system solutions for the ventilation and construction industry.

Peab AB operates within fields of construction, project development, and civil engineering.  The Company builds commercial and residential buildings, roads, and bridges.  The Peab group also includes support companies in asphalt, crane and machinery rental, rock engineering, concrete, and prefabricated elements. The Company has offices throughout Sweden, and in Norway, Finland, and Poland.

The Brink's Company provides security services globally.  The Company provides secure transportation, cash logistics and other security-related services to banks and financial institutions, retailers, government agencies, mints, jewelers and other commercial operations around the world.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. provides integrated, non-hazardous solid waste services throughout the eastern United States.  The Company provides collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services, generates steam, and manufactures finished products utilizing recyclable materials primarily throughout the eastern portion of the United States.

Mineral Resources Ltd. offers contract crushing services to the mining industry in Australia.  The Company serves gold, iron ore, tantalum, and coal companies.

Stericycle, Inc. provides regulated medical waste management services.  The Company offers waste collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal to customers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

3M India Limited manufactures products for the electronics, telecommunications, industrial, consumer and office, health care, safety, and other markets. The Company's products include cable connectors, discrete modular and heat recoverable closures, electrical termination and splicing products, specialty pressure sensitive coated tapes, and specialty chemicals.

Transpacific Industries Group Ltd. provides integrated industrial cleaning and waste management solutions to customers across Australia and New Zealand. The Company also imports and distributes heavy-duty commercial vehicles.

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Elis SA provides commercial services. The Company offers rental and cleaning of textile and hygiene articles such as workwear, linen, air purification products, dryers, personal protection equipment, automatic dispensers, mats, mops, beverage machines, consumables, and accessories.

IAA Inc. retails automobiles. The Company offers buying and selling of trucks, passenger cars, and motorcycles, as well as provides insurance and car rental services. IAA serves customers worldwide.

ABM Industries Incorporated is a facility services contractor.  The Company provides air conditioning, engineering, janitorial, lighting, parking, security, and other outsourced facility services to commercial, industrial, and institutional customers in cities across North America.

Securitas AB sells products and services for the protection of homes, work places, and community. The Company's services include specialized guarding and mobile services, monitoring, and consulting and investigations. Securitas operates in Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, and Asia.

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Securitas AB (SECUB SS)