Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Seazen (Formerly Future Land) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>FUTLANs and FTLNHDs rebounded 6-9pts this week but still 16-20pts lower than the levels before the collateral damage resulting from COGARD.</li><li>Seazen (Seazen Group, 1030 HK and Seazen Holdings, 601155 CH) has much more manageable offshore maturities than their peers like COGARD.</li><li>To illustrate, the total o/s USD bonds of the Seazen complex is USD1.8bn, compared with USD10.8bn of CORARD (including 2 HKD CBs), and is even smaller than that of smaller developers such as Road King which has o/s USD bonds of USD1.9bn and 3 perps of USD900mn, as well as Shui On Land which has o/s USD bonds of USD1.9bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FUTLANs and FTLNHDs rebounded 6-9pts this week but still 16-20pts lower than the levels before the collateral damage resulting from COGARD.Seazen (Seazen Group, 1030 HK and Seazen Holdings, 601155 CH) has much more manageable offshore maturities than their peers like COGARD.To illustrate, the total o/s USD bonds of the Seazen complex is USD1.8bn, compared with USD10.8bn of CORARD (including 2 HKD CBs), and is even smaller than that of smaller developers such as Road King which has o/s USD bonds of USD1.9bn and 3 perps of USD900mn, as well as Shui On Land which has o/s USD bonds of USD1.9bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Seazen's H1/23 results were in line with expectations, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. The group generated CNY 4.7 bn of investment property income in H1/23 (+10% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 70% (H1/22: 72%). We note positively the growing recurring revenue. The annual gross profit of c. CNY 7 bn now covers interest expense of c. CNY 6.3 bn. Seazen's liquidity will be tested by homebuyers' growing concerns over private developers' ability to complete properties. This has been exacerbated by lenders' reluctance to roll over debt. In this regard, we note that the regulatory authorities committed to improve funding access for private firms in late August 2023. We revise our trade recommendation to "Hold" on the FUTLAN 6 24 and "Not Recommended" on the remaining FUTLAN/FTLNHD notes, from "Hold".

  Seazen's H1/23 results were in line with expectations, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. The group generated CNY 4.7 bn of investment property income in H1/23 (+10% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 70% (H1/22: 72%). We note positively the growing recurring revenue. The annual gross profit of c. CNY 7 bn now covers interest expense of c. CNY 6.3 bn.   Seazen's liquidity will be tested by homebuyers' growing concerns over private developers' ability to complete properties. This has been exacerbated by lenders' reluctance to roll over debt. In this regard, we note that the regulatory authorities committed to improve funding access for private firms in late August 2023.   We revise our trade recommendation to "Hold" on the FUTLAN 6 24 and "Not Recommended" on the remaining FUTLAN/FTLNHD notes, from "Hold". 

Seazen Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

  The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days. 

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

Delhi International Airport Limited / Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-40020'>Continuum Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5293'>Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-9423'>West China Cement</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Continuum Green EnergyMelco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)West China Cement

Morning Views Asia: Continuum Green Energy, Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)

China

Seazen is a property developer in the Yangtze River Delta, focusing primarily on the development of residential properties and mixed-use complex projects.

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Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)

Morning Views Asia:

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Seazen - Too Much Downside Priced In

FUTLANs and FTLNHDs rebounded 6-9pts this week but still 16-20pts lower than the levels before the collateral damage resulting from COGARD.

CMB International

Seazen Group - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Seazen's H1/23 results were in line with expectations, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. The...

Lucror Analytics

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Continuum Green Energy, Melco Resorts and Entertainment (Philippines)

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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