China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10% year-on-year in May, compared to 9% in April. Shenzhen continues to stand out on 12-month basis with 59% increase, ahead of Huizhou and Dongguan (both in Guangdong province) with 35% and 34%, respectively. On sequential month-on-month basis, the 100 cities index increased by 1.7% compared to 1.45% in April. Xiamen and Hefei had strongest sequential…

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10% year-on-year in May, compared to 9% in April. Shenzhen continues to stand out on 12-month basis with 59% increase, ahead of Huizhou and Dongguan (both in Guangdong province) with 35% and 34%, respectively. On sequential month-on-month basis, the 100 cities index increased by 1.7% compared to 1.45% in April. Xiamen and Hefei had strongest sequential…

Editor, Bixmoor

Nick Fielding

Editor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the plan finds considerable room for doubt, whilst offering insights into possible areas for investment.

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the plan finds considerable room for doubt, whilst offering insights into possible areas for investment.

Growth with Volatility - The Next Five Years in China

China

Central China Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities company engaged in the brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and trading businesses primarily in China. The Company trades in stocks, funds, bonds, and commodity and financial futures on behalf of its clients; and provides margin financing, securities lending, and wealth management services.

Shanxi Securities Company Limited provides securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities proprietary trading, securities and asset management, and intermediary services for futures trading companies. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides stock and bond underwriting and sponsorship, commodities and financial futures brokerage services.


Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, custody, underwriting, asset management, and investment consulting services.

Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, credit trading, financing, and securities consulting services. Huaxi Securities also conducts fund underwriting and futures intermediate businesses.

First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities underwriting, risk management, securities investment, and other services. First Capital Securities provides its services throughout China.

Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities institutional brokerage businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, margin trading, and other securities services. Huaan Securities also offers investment and financing solution services.

China Cinda Asset Management Company Ltd. provides asset management services. The Company invests, disposes, and manages non-performing assets and equity. China Cinda Asset Management also provides consulting, investment, financial, and risk management services to individuals and businesses.

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, custodian, underwriting, trading and investment consulting services.

Shaanxi International Trust Co., Ltd. provides a variety of non-banking financial services. The Company's services include trust deposits, trust loans, trust investment, security trading, financing and leasing, guarantee, and other related services. The Company also invests in real estate development.

Samsung Securities Co.,Ltd. provides personalized asset management services. The Company provides brokerage, investment trust, underwriting services, and other services. Samsung Securities also provides cyber trading, mutual funds, asset backed securities issuing, municipal bonds trading services.

StoneX Group Inc. is an institutional-grade financial services network that connects companies, organizations, and investors to the global markets ecosystem through digital platforms, end-to-end clearing, and execution services. StoneX Group operates worldwide.

SSI Securities Corporation offers investment banking and securities brokerage services.  The Company offers corporate finance advisory and capital raising services, mergers and acquisitions advice, and equity research, sales and trading services.

Virtu Financial, Inc. is a technology-enabled market maker and liquidity provider to the global financial markets. The Company posts two-sided quotes in equities, ETFs, commodities, currencies, options, futures, fixed income, and other securities on various exchanges, markets, and liquidity pools around the world.

Guoco Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties as well as provides stock, commodity and bullion broking, insurance, and fund management services.

HUB24 Limited is a financial services company.  The Company focuses on the delivery of a platform which supports investors.  The platform is a next-generation service with state-of-the-art portfolio management, transaction, and reporting solutions for licensees, financial advisers, accountants, stockbrokers, and institutions.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited is an independent and de-mutualized exchange.  The Exchange has permanent recognition from the Government of India for facilitating online trading, clearing, and settlement operations for commodity futures markets across the country.

Capri Global Capital Ltd is an Indian Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC-NDSI). The Company is focused on the priority sector in the SME lending space; it provides loans for purchase of machinery and equipment, and working capital. In wholesale lending, it offers specialized solutions to Indian corporates to grow their businesses with initial funding, mezzanine financing et cetera.

Meritz Securities Co., Ltd. provides brokerage, underwriting, and securities dealing services in South Korea.  The Company also offers mutual funds, bonds, certificate of deposits (CD), corporate finance, online trading, and related services.

IIFL Holdings Limited is a financial services company and is engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the businesses of  non-banking finance, housing finance, wealth management, asset management, institutional & retail brokerage and investment banking. The Company is also a distributor of insurance and other financial products.

Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. operates as a securities brokerage company. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities trading, securities underwriting and sponsorship, securities asset management, and other services. Sealand Securities provides services in China.

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Sealand Securities (000750 CH)

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks. The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY...

Christopher Balding

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In that period,...

Daniel Tabbush

Does China Have Too Much Equity?

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting. The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans...

Mark Artherton

Latest China House Price Data

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10%...

Robert Ciemniak

Growth with Volatility - The Next Five Years in China

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the...

Bixmoor

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