EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

 The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

In line with our expectations from a few months ago Saudi has ramped up production into the summer to drive down oil prices, adding 0.9mbpd since the start of the year to go 2.5mbpd above their historic quota, equivalent to the expected return of Iranian crude. This should drag down energy stocks and the whole curve, both of which should bottom this summer.

In line with our expectations from a few months ago Saudi has ramped up production into the summer to drive down oil prices, adding 0.9mbpd since the start of the year to go 2.5mbpd above their historic quota, equivalent to the expected return of Iranian crude. This should drag down energy stocks and the whole curve, both of which should bottom this summer.

Saudi is flooding the oil market, not Iran

While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear weapons program has now been reached. We think this is a good deal that stops nuclear breakout. Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities with the TSE at 6x PE and yielding double digit dividends, but the near term impact will be to continue oil's decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.

While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear weapons program has now been reached. We think this is a good deal that stops nuclear breakout. Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities with the TSE at 6x PE and yielding double digit dividends, but the near term impact will be to continue oil's decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

We are in the sweet spot of a recovery in tanker shipping coming after the sub-sector has marked multi-year lows. The driver has been oil price rebounds which itself has driven a promise of higher dividend distributions.

We are in the sweet spot of a recovery in tanker shipping coming after the sub-sector has marked multi-year lows. The driver has been oil price rebounds which itself has driven a promise of higher dividend distributions.

Key Juncture for Tankers and How to Get Proper Tanker Exposure

United States

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. provides contract drilling of oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico and South America. The Company operates land rigs and platform rigs.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. provides land-based drilling services to major and independent oil and natural gas companies.  The Company conducts drilling operations in Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and western Canada. Patterson-UTI is also involved in pressure pumping, oil and gas exploration and production, and drilling and completion fluids services.

Archrock, Inc. operates as a natural gas contract compression services company. The Company offers natural gas compression and aftermarket services, as well as provides used equipment for oil and gas industry. Archrock serves customers in the United States.

Cactus, Inc. manufactures control equipment. The Company offers wellhead systems, valves, and flow control products. Cactus markets its products worldwide.

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. operates as an oilfield service company. The Company specializes in hydraulic fracturing, stimulation, and engineering services. Liberty Oilfield Services serves customers throughout the United States.

Oceaneering International, Inc. is a global provider of engineered services and products to the offshore oil and gas industry. The Company offers services and products in remotely operated vehicles, mobile offshore production systems, engineering and product management, manned diving and other deep water applications. Oceaneering also serves the defense and aerospace industries.

Expro Group Holdings N.V. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides engineered tubular services to exploration and production companies in both offshore and onshore environments, with a focus on complex and technically demanding wells. Expro Group Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc. provides oilfield services. The Company offers drilling and other related solutions such as developing, delivering, management, and engineering activities. Nextier Oilfield Solutions serves customers  in the United States.

USA Compression Partners, LP provides compression services. The Company engineers, designs, operates, services, and repairs its compression units, as well as maintains related support inventory and equipment. USA Compression Partners serves customers in the United States.

Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. is a marine contractor and operator of offshore oil and gas properties and production facilities.  The Company seeks to align the interests of the producer and contractor by investing in mature offshore oil and gas properties, hub production facilities, and undeveloped reserve plays.

China Oilfield Services Limited provides oilfield services. The Company provides geophysical prospecting, drilling, oilfield technology development, and other services. China Oilfield Services also operates transportation businesses.

Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. provides offshore oil engineering services, including designing, construction, installation, and repair and maintenance services.  The Company's main businesses include oil/gas exploration engineering, subsea pipeline laying, oil/gas field equipment testing and maintenance, as well as pressure container and steel structure manufacturing.

Transocean Ltd. is an offshore drilling contractor.  The Company owns or operates mobile offshore drilling units, inland drilling barges, and other assets utilized in the support of offshore drilling activities worldwide. Transocean specializes in technically demanding segments of the offshore drilling business, including deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.

Vallourec provides tubular solutions. The Company offers tubes and other related components. Vallourec serves refineries, hydraulic cylinders, machine tools, automobiles, construction, and oil and gas industries worldwide.

Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells oil field equipment.  The Company's products include well cementing equipment, well fracturing equipment, and natural gas compression and transportation equipment.

Zhongyuan Special Steel Company Ltd. produces forgings for equipment manufacturers.  The Company manufactures oil drilling tools, cast iron pipe, rollers, and die steel.

Zhongyuan Special Steel Co,Ltd. (002423 CH)

SBM Offshore NV, through subsidiaries, offers services to the offshore oil and gas industry worldwide.  The Company supplies and installs floating production and/or storage facilities and terminals for the loading or unloading of tankers.  SBM offers, on long-term lease, floating facilities for the production, storage, and export of crude oil and gas.

Aker Solutions ASA provides products, systems, and services to oil and gas companies. The Company offers subsea production equipment and offshore field design to oil and gas companies globally.

TGS Nopec Geophysical Company ASA offers geophysical consulting and contracting services.  The Company also collects and processes magnetic and gravitational data.  TGS focuses on planning, collection, processing, and sale of marine seismic data.  The Company's customers are international oil and exploration companies.

WorleyParsons Limited provides professional services through alliance and integrated service contracts to the energy, resource and complex process industries.  The Company provides its services to industrial sectors such as oil and gas refining, petrochemicals and chemicals, minerals and metals, power and water and industrial and infrastructure.

Seadrill Limited operates as an oil and gas field service company. The Company offers drilling contracting services to unlock oil and gas resources for clients across harsh and benign locations. Seadrill serves customers worldwide.

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Seadrill (SDRL US)

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move...

Emad Mostaque

Deconstructing Daesh

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the...

Emad Mostaque

Saudi is flooding the oil market, not Iran

In line with our expectations from a few months ago Saudi has ramped up production into the summer to drive down oil prices, adding 0.9mbpd since...

Emad Mostaque

Iranian deal done

While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear weapons program has now been reached. We think this is a good deal that...

Emad Mostaque

Key Juncture for Tankers and How to Get Proper Tanker Exposure

We are in the sweet spot of a recovery in tanker shipping coming after the sub-sector has marked multi-year lows. The driver has been oil price...

Charles De Trenck

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