Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SDRL reported Q1 results affirming the positive attributes of the business after repositioning assets in the fourth quarter. The first quarter included economic utilization of 95% resulting in cost absorption</li>
<li>Day rates continue to trend higher putting SDRL in an advantageous spot as a portion of its fleet becomes available late in 2023 and early 2024</li>
<li>Subsequent to the first quarter, SDRL closed the acquisition of Aquadrill and has now provided full year guidance incorporating the business</li>
</ul>


SDRL reported Q1 results affirming the positive attributes of the business after repositioning assets in the fourth quarter. The first quarter included economic utilization of 95% resulting in cost absorption
Day rates continue to trend higher putting SDRL in an advantageous spot as a portion of its fleet becomes available late in 2023 and early 2024
Subsequent to the first quarter, SDRL closed the acquisition of Aquadrill and has now provided full year guidance incorporating the business


<ul>
<li>SDRL is scheduled to report first quarter results on May 23, 2023, before the market open and has provided a glimpse to the profitability Aquadrill is operating at</li>
<li>The Aquadrill fourth quarter results affirm our investment thesis of the profitability the business is operating at with the day rates Aquadrill has secured</li>
<li>SDRL is the last company of the major drill ship owners to report first quarter results. Peers have shed a positive outlook on the industry and day rate trend</li>
</ul>


SDRL is scheduled to report first quarter results on May 23, 2023, before the market open and has provided a glimpse to the profitability Aquadrill is operating at
The Aquadrill fourth quarter results affirm our investment thesis of the profitability the business is operating at with the day rates Aquadrill has secured
SDRL is the last company of the major drill ship owners to report first quarter results. Peers have shed a positive outlook on the industry and day rate trend


SDRL: Aquadrill Numbers Ahead of Q1 Results

<ul>
<li>SDRL reported its long awaited fourth quarter results after the Company consummated the purchase of Aquadrill.</li>
<li>It was in the Q123 when SDRL was able to generate revenue from its new Brazilian contracts making it more likely investors would minimize their interest on the Q4 results</li>
<li>The purchase of Aquadrill provides scale to SDRL’s operations through a larger fleet size and being able to internally manage the Aquadrill fleet as contracts begin the expire</li>
</ul>


SDRL reported its long awaited fourth quarter results after the Company consummated the purchase of Aquadrill.
It was in the Q123 when SDRL was able to generate revenue from its new Brazilian contracts making it more likely investors would minimize their interest on the Q4 results
The purchase of Aquadrill provides scale to SDRL’s operations through a larger fleet size and being able to internally manage the Aquadrill fleet as contracts begin the expire


SDRL: Deal Is Done, Now for the Free Cash Flow

United Kingdom

Seadrill Ltd. provides offshore deepwater drilling. The Company operates a fleet for operations in shallow to ultra-deepwater areas in harsh and benign environments. Seadrill's fleet includes semi-submersible rigs, deepwater drillships, jack-ups, semi-tender rigs, and tender rigs.

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Seadrill Ltd (SDRL NO)

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

SDRL: Early Arrival of Free Cash Flow

SDRL generated free cash flow in Q1 and is guiding for full year free cash flow also, which is one year earlier than we expected. Tight supply...

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: Aquadrill Numbers Ahead of Q1 Results

SDRL released Aquadrill's fourth quarter numbers showing how profitable the business had turned ahead of SDRL completing the transaction

BWS Financial Inc

SDRL: Deal Is Done, Now for the Free Cash Flow

SDRL after the Company closed the purchase of Aquadrill and reported fourth quarter 2022 results. The current trends in day rates suggest SDRL...

BWS Financial Inc

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