Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech / Event-Driven

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

<ul>
<li>The June 2024 index review results for the SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.</li>
<li>There will be 5 changes for the SSE 50 index and 18 changes for the SSE 180 index.</li>
<li>These changes could collectively cause one-way index flows of ~US$1.8bn during the June 2024 index rebal event. In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


The June 2024 index review results for the SSE 50 and SSE 180 indices were announced after market close on Friday 31st May 2024.
There will be 5 changes for the SSE 50 index and 18 changes for the SSE 180 index.
These changes could collectively cause one-way index flows of ~US$1.8bn during the June 2024 index rebal event. In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.


Quiddity SSE50/180 Jun 24 Rebalance: US$1.8bn One-Way Flow; LONGs up 8.6% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Late March, SOE-backed power play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd. (836 HK)</a></strong> announced it intends to spin off its energy unit via an A-share listing. </li>
<li>Shares gained 4.9% on the news - gains which were promptly given back over the ensuing fortnight.</li>
<li>Renewable energy profits have been the driving force behind CRP's bottom line strength the last two years. But how best to assign a value to the remaining loss-making thermal ops? </li>
</ul>


Late March, SOE-backed power play China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd. (836 HK) announced it intends to spin off its energy unit via an A-share listing. 
Shares gained 4.9% on the news - gains which were promptly given back over the ensuing fortnight.
Renewable energy profits have been the driving force behind CRP's bottom line strength the last two years. But how best to assign a value to the remaining loss-making thermal ops? 


CR Power (836 HK): Upside From Clean Energy Spin-Off

China

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power generating stations. The Company sells all of the electricity from its stations, manages, oversees the construction of nuclear power stations, and provides technical research plus develops support services. CGN Power has stations in Guangdong, Fujian and Liaoning, and is a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co., Ltd. invests in electric power projects through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manufactures cable, railroad control systems and other automation equipment.

GD Power Development Co., Ltd. generates and distributes electric power and heat throughout China.  The Company also invests in new energy development and environmental protection projects.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. supplies electric power through operating thermal power generation.  The Company also involves in the research and development of electric power, power and energy-saving technology development, technical consulting, sales of energy-saving products, electrical engineering and asset management.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power A (600023 CH)

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes textile products. The Company produces polyester filament and other chemical fiber products. Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong also conducts electricity-heat generation and petrochemical businesses.

Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co., Ltd. (000301 CH)

Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. operates power generation businesses. The Company provides hydroelectric power and other power products. Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power also produces thermal power, wind power, and other power products.

Datang International Power Generation Co.,Ltd offers power generation services. The Company provides power project development, electricity transmission, and power distribution services. Datang International Power Generation also conducts coal, coal chemistry, transport, and recycling businesses.

Datang International Power Gen (601991 CH)

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

NRG Energy, Inc. owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power-generating facilities, primarily in the United States.  The Company's operations include energy production and cogeneration facilities, thermal energy production, and energy resource recovery facilities.

EDP Renovaveis SA designs, develops, manages and operates power plants. The Company generates electricity using renewable energy sources mostly wind energy.

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

The AES Corporation acquires, develops, owns, and operates generation plants and distribution businesses in several countries. The Company sells electricity under long term contracts and serves customers under its regulated utility businesses. AES also mines coal, turns seawater into drinking water, and develops alternative sources of energy.

RWE Aktiengesellschaft is a globally active energy company. The Company generates and trades electricity. RWE has a capacity of about 10 gigawatts based on renewable sources, as well as gas fleet and an internationally active energy trading business. RWE serves clients in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the United States.

Vistra Corp. provides utility services. The Company generates energy. Vistra Corp serves customers worldwide.

SDIC Power Holdings Co Ltd . generates thermal electric and hydroelectric power. The electric power generated by the Company are supplied to Gansu area.

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SDIC Power Holdings (600886 CH)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SSE50/180 Jun 24 Rebalance: US$1.8bn One-Way Flow; LONGs up 8.6% Vs SHORTs in a Month

On average, the LONGs are up 5.6% and the SHORTs are down 3.0% since the pair trades were suggested (on 6th May 2024). Some of these have to be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

CR Power (836 HK): Upside From Clean Energy Spin-Off

CRP is not trading rich to peers. On balance, and on the expectation we see additional newsflow on the spin-off, CRP should outperform its IPP peers.

David Blennerhassett

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Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity SSE50/180 Jun 24 Rebalance: US$1.8bn One-Way Flow; LONGs up 8.6% Vs SHORTs in a Month

On average, the LONGs are up 5.6% and the SHORTs are down 3.0% since the pair trades were suggested (on 6th May 2024). Some of these have to be...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

CR Power (836 HK): Upside From Clean Energy Spin-Off

CRP is not trading rich to peers. On balance, and on the expectation we see additional newsflow on the spin-off, CRP should outperform its IPP peers.

David Blennerhassett