Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.</li>
<li>The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.
The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.


Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As 1Q earnings season ramps up this upcoming week, it’s a good time to check cushions on existing holdings as this earnings could have lots of volatility.</li><li>For example, last quarter, some big cap tech “titans” like Meta (formerly known as Facebook) and Netflix saw significant institutional selling post earnings after earnings misses and will be under pressure this quarter </li><li>Companies are seeing enormous margin pressure on supply chain costs, labor costs, material costs, etc. that only went higher this past quarter</li></ul>

As 1Q earnings season ramps up this upcoming week, it’s a good time to check cushions on existing holdings as this earnings could have lots of volatility.For example, last quarter, some big cap tech “titans” like Meta (formerly known as Facebook) and Netflix saw significant institutional selling post earnings after earnings misses and will be under pressure this quarter Companies are seeing enormous margin pressure on supply chain costs, labor costs, material costs, etc. that only went higher this past quarter

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

United States

Compass Minerals International, Inc. produces highway deicing salt in North America and the United Kingdom.  The Company also produces general trade salt and sulfate of potash.  Compass Minerals sells its highway deicing salt primarily to state, provincial, county, and municipal highway departments for deicing applications.

Compass Minerals International, Inc (CMP US)

Olympic Steel, Inc. processes and distributes flat-rolled carbon, stainless steel, and tubular steel products. The Company operates as an intermediary between steel producers and manufacturers that require processed steel for their operations. Olympic purchases steel from producers and processes it according to customer specifications.

Haynes International, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets high performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace and chemical processing industries.

Ryerson Holding Corporation operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, purchases, processes, and distributes various forms of stainless steel, aluminum, carbon, alloy steel, nickel, and red metals. Ryerson serves customers worldwide.

Ramaco Resources, Inc. acquires and develops properties for coal mining activities. The Company mines metallurgical coal reserves. Ramaco Resources operates within the United States.

SunCoke Energy, Inc. supplies high-quality coke used in the blast furnace production of steel, under long-term, take-or-pay contracts that pass through commodity and certain operating costs to customers. We utilize an innovative heat-recovery technology that captures excess heat for steam or electrical power generation. Our cokemaking facilities are located in US and Brazil.

Gold Resource Corporation explores for gold and other precious metals. The Company currently holds interest in properties in Mexico.

TimkenSteel Corporation engineers, manufactures, and markets mechanical components and steel. The Company produces air-melted alloy steel bars, bearings, chains, seals, motion control systems, tubes, and precision components. TimkenSteel oil and gas, automotive, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, agriculture, and power generation market sectors worldwide.

Valhi, Inc. provides chemical products. The Company offers titanium dioxide pigments and metals products, ergonomic computer support systems and precision ball bearing slides, as well as owns and operates a facility for the processing, treatment, and disposal of hazardous wastes. Valhi serves customers in the United States.

Myers Industries, Inc. manufactures plastic and rubber products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial, and consumer markets.  The Company's products include plastic containers, rubber tire repair products, and custom rubber materials.  Myers is also a wholesale distributor of tools, equipment, and supplies for the tire service and automotive underbody repair industry.

Jilin Liyuan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd manufactures and sells aluminum ex trusion profiles.  The Company's products include military, industrial, architec tural,  decoration and electronic aluminum profiles.

Jilin Liyuan Precision Manufactrg (002501 CH)

Beijing Lier High-temperature Materials Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells steel, construction material, non-ferrous metals, and other refractory material.  The Company also designs, develops, constructs, installs, equips, uses, and maintains industrial furnace.

Beijing Lier High Temperatr Mtrls (002392 CH)

Jiangsu Alcha Aluminum Company Ltd. manufactures and markets pure aluminum foil, hydrophilic-coated aluminum foil, and aluminum scrip coil.

Jiangsu Alcha Aluminum Co, Ltd. (002160 CH)

Nippon Yakin Kogyo Co., Ltd. is a stainless steel producer.  The Company also produces super alloy, alloyed metal for electronic materials, and stainless processed products.

Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd., an affiliate of Nippon Steel Group, mines for limestone mining for the steel industry.  The Company also smelts copper ore into ingots, and produces flame-retardant ceramic papers, mining machinery, and environment-related products.  Nittetsu Mining also operates real estate.

Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Ltd manufactures architectural and industrial aluminum profiles. The Company's products include sliding windows, casement windows, sliding doors, and others. Xingfa also offers equipment, such as fusion casting, extrusion, surface treatment, vertical coating, fluorocarbon coating, and mould making center equipment.

Tata Steel Long Products Limited manufactures sponge iron and sponge iron products. Tata Iron & Steel Company (TISCO) is a majority shareholder in the company.

AICHI STEEL CORPORATION is a manufacturer of specialty steel.   The Company's products include rolled steel and forged products.  Aichi Steel jointly works with Toyota Motors to develop automobile parts.  The Company also makes magnetic and electronic parts, including plastic magnets.

Suzhou Lopsking Aluminum Co., Ltd. manufactures, sells and installs aluminum window frames, pressed aluminum, air tight metal windows, window alarm system, and other window parts.

Pantoro Limited operates as a mineral exploration and production company. The Company explores gold and other metals. Pantoro serves customers in Australia.

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. operates a steel scrap recycling business in the western United States.  The Company supplies ferrous scrap to export and domestic steel producers through its scrap collection, processing, and deep water facilities.  Schnitzer also operates collection and processing facilities, as well as manages other facilities through joint ventures.

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Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc (SCHN US)

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

The $SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside and...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/18

As 1Q earnings season ramps up this upcoming week, it’s a good time to check cushions on existing holdings as this earnings could have lots of...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

Cyclical value areas are improving, but so are defensives. In order to get more bullish, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield break above...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

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