Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a>, for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US), for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Senior Investment Analyst, Black Crane Investment Mgmt Ltd

Perry Tan, CFA, CAIA, FRM

Senior Investment Analyst

Black Crane Investment Mgmt Ltd

Credit

<ul><li> 2018s bond price 66%</li><li>Market cap: US$196.9m</li><li>Total Debt: US$379.1m</li></ul>Action &amp; Scenario Analysis<ul><li>Long credit</li><li>Under all 3 scenarios with a haircut, the recovery rate is higher than the current price </li><li>Target IRR: 19.4% (based on the weighted average return of the 3 scenarios and assuming a haircut on principal)</li></ul>

 2018s bond price 66%Market cap: US$196.9mTotal Debt: US$379.1mAction &amp; Scenario AnalysisLong creditUnder all 3 scenarios with a haircut, the recovery rate is higher than the current price Target IRR: 19.4% (based on the weighted average return of the 3 scenarios and assuming a haircut on principal) 

Anton Oilfield Services 7.5% 2018s - Asset Disposal Above BV Enough to Cover Indebtedness

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some of the strategic implications for equity investors in terms of the potential shifts in sovereign and corporate governance.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

United States

Schlumberger Limited is an oil services company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of services, including technology, project management and information solutions to the international petroleum industry as well as advanced acquisition and data processing surveys.

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Schlumberger Ltd (SLB US)

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical...

Charles De Trenck

Anton Oilfield Services 7.5% 2018s - Asset Disposal Above BV Enough to Cover Indebtedness

2018s bond price 66% Market cap: US$196.9m Total Debt: US$379.1m Action & Scenario Analysis Long credit Under all 3 scenarios with a haircut,...

Perry Tan, CFA, CAIA, FRM

Brexit; Unintended Consequences

In this brief piece we take a considered stance on the likelihood of Brexit actually proceeding in the wake of June’s referendum and examine some...

John-Paul Smith

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

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