Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Vitesco Technologies Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The official index changes for the March 2024 review could be announced after the close of 5th March 2024.</li>
<li>I currently do not see any changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
The official index changes for the March 2024 review could be announced after the close of 5th March 2024.
I currently do not see any changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners raised its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>,  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.</li>
<li>A firm merger proposal is expected for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.</li>
</ul>


A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".
3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP),  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 27 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schaeffler-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21712:1" rel="noopener">Schaeffler (SHA GR)</a> increased the cash consideration for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitesco-technologies-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36684:1" rel="noopener">Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR)</a> by 3.3% to €94.00/share, an implied equity value of €3,762 million, implied EV of €3,416 million.</li>
<li>Although this may not include a takeover premium, and optically the multiple seems low at 3.4x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, I update my TP to €94. </li>
<li>A higher counteroffer or another sweetening seems unlikely. I believe it should not be difficult for Schaeffler to achieve 75% acceptances, thus the deal will likely go through.</li>
</ul>


On 27 November, Schaeffler (SHA GR) increased the cash consideration for Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR) by 3.3% to €94.00/share, an implied equity value of €3,762 million, implied EV of €3,416 million.
Although this may not include a takeover premium, and optically the multiple seems low at 3.4x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, I update my TP to €94. 
A higher counteroffer or another sweetening seems unlikely. I believe it should not be difficult for Schaeffler to achieve 75% acceptances, thus the deal will likely go through.


Schaeffler/Vitesco: Sweetened Offer Considered Low by the Board

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-lufthansa-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21667:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)</a> is not very far away from triggering a change.</li>
<li>Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) is not very far away from triggering a change.
Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

Germany

Schaeffler AG is an automotive and industrial supplier. The Company's business divisions include engine, transmission and chassis systems, automotive aftermarket, industrial applications, and industrial aftermarket. Schaeffler AG operates worldwide.

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Schaeffler (SHA GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

I expect Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR) to trigger the fast exit rule and get deleted from the MDAX index and MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could get...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Schaeffler/Vitesco: Sweetened Offer Considered Low by the Board

Schaeffler increases the cash offer for Vitesco Technologies Group to €94/share, which although not generous at 3.4x EV/ NTM EBITDA, makes the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Aroundtown (AT1 GR) and Siltronic AG (WAF GR) could move from SDAX to MDAX while ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR) and Duerr AG (DUE GR) could move...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

I expect Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR) to trigger the fast exit rule and get deleted from the MDAX index and MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could get...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Schaeffler/Vitesco: Sweetened Offer Considered Low by the Board

​Schaeffler increases the cash offer for Vitesco Technologies Group to €94/share, which although not generous at 3.4x EV/ NTM EBITDA, makes the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Aroundtown (AT1 GR) and Siltronic AG (WAF GR) could move from SDAX to MDAX while ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR) and Duerr AG (DUE GR) could move...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Schaeffler increases the cash offer for Vitesco Technologies Group to €94/share, which although not generous at 3.4x EV/ NTM EBITDA, makes the...