ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> also took a look and Philippine Banks highlighting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22788:1" rel="noopener">China Banking (CHIB PM)</a> as his top pick. We also comment on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekom (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), GoTo (GOTO IJ), and SCG Packaging (SCGP TB).

Daniel Tabbush also took a look and Philippine Banks highlighting China Banking (CHIB PM) as his top pick. We also comment on Astra International (ASII IJ) and Telekom (TLKM IJ). 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA's Transactional, ASSA & Anteraja, and Philippine Banks

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B66.00 (down 8% from previous TP),based on 30.8xPE’22E which is close to its -1SD of 3-years trailing average. We believe, SCGP’s 24%</li>
<li>We expect 1Q22E core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt1.7bn (-21%YoY,-21%QoQ). Excluding one-time gain from the acquisition of Go-Pak adjustment, its recurring profit should rise 23%QoQ.</li>
<li>We believe earnings momentum to recover in  2Q22 onwards by raising product prices in wake of costs turbulence, but would drop YoY due to fall from high base. </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B66.00 (down 8% from previous TP),based on 30.8xPE’22E which is close to its -1SD of 3-years trailing average. We believe, SCGP’s 24%
We expect 1Q22E core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt1.7bn (-21%YoY,-21%QoQ). Excluding one-time gain from the acquisition of Go-Pak adjustment, its recurring profit should rise 23%QoQ.
We believe earnings momentum to recover in  2Q22 onwards by raising product prices in wake of costs turbulence, but would drop YoY due to fall from high base. 


SCGP: Elevated Product Prices to Drive Core Profit in 1Q22

<ul>
<li>Upgrade to BUY rating with a TP of Bt72, based on 30XPE’22E, which is derived from 2-years trailing average.The recent share price drawdown of 14% from its December 30 peak</li>
<li>It 4Q21 earnings were at Bt2.1bn, in-line with our projection, supported by robust revenue growth. Meanwhile, excluding extraordinary gain of Bt757m, its core profit was Bt1.4bn (-14%YoY,-2%QoQ),</li>
<li>SCGP’s 22E target revenue at Bt140bn (+6% from our forecast) as ASEAN Covid measures unwind would help support demand recovery. In tandem with multiple M&amp;As consolidation and ramp-up organic growth.</li>
</ul>


Upgrade to BUY rating with a TP of Bt72, based on 30XPE’22E, which is derived from 2-years trailing average.The recent share price drawdown of 14% from its December 30 peak
It 4Q21 earnings were at Bt2.1bn, in-line with our projection, supported by robust revenue growth. Meanwhile, excluding extraordinary gain of Bt757m, its core profit was Bt1.4bn (-14%YoY,-2%QoQ),
SCGP’s 22E target revenue at Bt140bn (+6% from our forecast) as ASEAN Covid measures unwind would help support demand recovery. In tandem with multiple M&amp;As consolidation and ramp-up organic growth.


SCGP: 4Q21 Earnings Result In-Line with Expectation

<ul>
<li>Downgrade to HOLD rating due to limited upside, with a TP of Bt72, based on 30xPE’22E, derived from 2-years trailing average.Share price which is trading at premium to Asia ex-Japan</li>
<li>We expect solid 4Q21 earnings at Bt1.9bn (+9%QoQ, +31%YoY),backed by both sales growth and  margin expansion, given the demand recovery after the easing of ASEAN lockdown and multiple M&amp;As consolidation</li>
<li>We expect 2022 earnings to grow strongly by 30%YoY, on the back of organic and inorganic growth; coupled with global demand recovery, that we anticipate in 4Q21 onwards</li>
</ul>


Downgrade to HOLD rating due to limited upside, with a TP of Bt72, based on 30xPE’22E, derived from 2-years trailing average.Share price which is trading at premium to Asia ex-Japan
We expect solid 4Q21 earnings at Bt1.9bn (+9%QoQ, +31%YoY),backed by both sales growth and  margin expansion, given the demand recovery after the easing of ASEAN lockdown and multiple M&amp;As consolidation
We expect 2022 earnings to grow strongly by 30%YoY, on the back of organic and inorganic growth; coupled with global demand recovery, that we anticipate in 4Q21 onwards


<p><strong>SCGP posted 3Q21 earnings of Bt1.78bn (+33%YoY,-21%QoQ), the drop in QoQ was pressured by margin contraction.</strong></p><div>• Its 3Q21 revenue was at Bt31.9bn (+37%YoY,+7%QoQ), the rise in QoQ was backed by better demand in all segments.</div><div></div><div>• The YoY surged in revenue is supported by both organic expansion and M&amp;As consolidation, accounting for 8% of 3Q21 total revenue.</div><div></div><div>• We expect 3Q21 to be the bottom quarter and should recover gradually from 4Q21 onwards backed by lockdown easing especially in Vietnam.</div><div></div><div>• 2022 earnings outlook will be backed by capacity expansion and potential M&amp;As, especially for Deltalab contribution.</div><div></div><div><strong>Maintain BUY rating with a TP 0f Bt72, based on 30xPE’22E, which is a  premium compared to Asia ex-Japan sector of 12xPE’22. Our rating reflects growth potential from organic expansion and M&amp;As.</strong></div>

SCGP posted 3Q21 earnings of Bt1.78bn (+33%YoY,-21%QoQ), the drop in QoQ was pressured by margin contraction.• Its 3Q21 revenue was at Bt31.9bn (+37%YoY,+7%QoQ), the rise in QoQ was backed by better demand in all segments.• The YoY surged in revenue is supported by both organic expansion and M&amp;As consolidation, accounting for 8% of 3Q21 total revenue.• We expect 3Q21 to be the bottom quarter and should recover gradually from 4Q21 onwards backed by lockdown easing especially in Vietnam.• 2022 earnings outlook will be backed by capacity expansion and potential M&amp;As, especially for Deltalab contribution.Maintain BUY rating with a TP 0f Bt72, based on 30xPE’22E, which is a  premium compared to Asia ex-Japan sector of 12xPE’22. Our rating reflects growth potential from organic expansion and M&amp;As.

SCGP: 3Q21 Result Dip QoQ, 10% Below Our Forecast

Thailand

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides packaging services and solutions. The Company offers fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, and food service products, as well as designing and printing services. SCG Packaging serves customers worldwide.

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SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BCA's Transactional, ASSA & Anteraja, and Philippine Banks

The past week saw insights on Singapore's economic outlook, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), GoTo (GOTO IJ), and SCG...

Angus Mackintosh

SCGP: Elevated Product Prices to Drive Core Profit in 1Q22

Maintain BUY rating with a new TP of B66.00 (down 8% from previous TP),based on 30.8xPE’22E which is close to its -1SD of 3-years trailing average....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SCGP: 4Q21 Earnings Result In-Line with Expectation

Upgrade to BUY rating with a TP of Bt72, based on 30XPE’22E, which is derived from 2-years trailing average. The recent share price drawdown of 14%...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SCGP: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Grow QoQ

Downgrade to HOLD rating due to limited upside, with a TP of Bt72, based on 30xPE’22E, derived from 2-years trailing average. Share price which is...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SCGP: 3Q21 Result Dip QoQ, 10% Below Our Forecast

SCGP posted 3Q21 earnings of Bt1.78bn (+33%YoY,-21%QoQ), the drop in QoQ was pressured by margin contraction. Maintain BUY rating with a TP 0f...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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