Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans</li>
<li>ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%</li>
<li>Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization</li>
</ul>


The bank is seeing high growth in cash and deposits, with loans in decline, and the composition moving more toward government and corporate loans
ALM does not appear strong, and without any easy way to reduce operating costs, the bank is now seeing cost/income surge to 74%
Credit metrics on surface may appear fine, but the 47% QoQ rise in provision costs, suggests to us provisions were cut too much last year, and now there is normalization


Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.</li>
<li>Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.</li>
<li>Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.
Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.
Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.


SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-giken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40113:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Giken (6223 JP)</a> (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.</li>
<li>SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.
SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Seibu Giken IPO Trading - Still Not Particularly Enticing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a> is the 7-11 convenience store bank, which focuses on ATM fees more than loans, so its cash is JPY952bn vs loans JPY35bn at FY23.</li>
<li>Loan growth in 1Q24 is 7% YoY, one of strongest in Japan and it is accelerating in recent periods, alongside 8-9% growth in ATM transactions, retail accounts</li>
<li>Exceptionally strong ATM transactions abroad at 92.4m in 1Q24 vs 66.5m in 1Q23, including US, Indonesia and Philippines. </li>
</ul>



Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) is the 7-11 convenience store bank, which focuses on ATM fees more than loans, so its cash is JPY952bn vs loans JPY35bn at FY23.
Loan growth in 1Q24 is 7% YoY, one of strongest in Japan and it is accelerating in recent periods, alongside 8-9% growth in ATM transactions, retail accounts
Exceptionally strong ATM transactions abroad at 92.4m in 1Q24 vs 66.5m in 1Q23, including US, Indonesia and Philippines. 


Seven Bank - Assets 39x Loans | Strong 7% Loan Growth | ATM Transactions +8% | Retail Accounts +9%

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> listed over the last couple of months and the stocks will be added to various indices over the year.</li>
<li>First up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 May.</li>
<li>Then both stocks will be added to other global indices between August and December bringing in passive flows and helping support the stock.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) and Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) listed over the last couple of months and the stocks will be added to various indices over the year.
First up, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 30 May.
Then both stocks will be added to other global indices between August and December bringing in passive flows and helping support the stock.


Rakuten Bank & SBI Sumishin Net Bank: Upcoming Passive Flow

Japan

SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Ltd. offers general banking services. The Company provides transfer accounts, deposits, currency savings, mortgages, net loans, investment trusts, insurance products, and other banking services. SBI Sumishin Net Bank offers services to individuals and businesses.

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SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)

Suruga Bank - Loans Down A Lot, Deposits Up Sharply, Cost/Income Up to 74%, Credit Costs +47% QoQ

Cash is up a lot but loans are down a lot with sharply higher deposits, not the best ALM. Cost/income ratio is now 74%, not easy to cut costs...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Earnings are very strong now, especially from mainstay securities business, but also from affilates. It is an interesting alternative financial...

Daniel Tabbush

Seibu Giken IPO Trading - Still Not Particularly Enticing

Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range. In this note we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Seven Bank - Assets 39x Loans | Strong 7% Loan Growth | ATM Transactions +8% | Retail Accounts +9%

Highly geared toward change in negative rates on BOJ deposits. Good growth in ATMs outstanding, ATM transactions (especially overseas), and in...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten Bank & SBI Sumishin Net Bank: Upcoming Passive Flow

Rakuten Bank has run up a lot since the Insight was published. There is still more passive buying to come and investors could exit the stock...

Brian Freitas

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